A good barrier draw will assist Champagne...
A small yet classy field of seven stayers will tackle the Listed Christmas Cup (2400m) at Royal Randwick Racecourse this Saturday.
The Randwick track was downgraded this morning into the ‘heavy 8’ range after further rainfall overnight, so there’s no saying which horses will be lately scratched from the Villiers Stakes Day race meeting.
As of now, Chris Waller’s Saigon Tea remains the firm favourite in the Christmas Cup betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au at $2.35 but there are three other single figure hopefuls hot on her tail.
The five-year-old mare is one of only two last start winners in the field and will carry the minimum weight of 54kg from barrier four. Is that enough to justify her favouritism?
With the ground almost certainly heavy due to the rain affected track, it’s worth looking at the seven runners past records over the same conditions as that will play a big part in their result. Check out our betting tips for the 2014 Christmas Cup below to get a better idea of who to back.
#4 World Wide ($13)
The Bede Murray-trained gelding has seen his price significantly shorten since the Christmas Cup market opened and it will undoubtedly keep going down over the next 24 hours. After opening at $21 the market mover is now paying $13, which is still a highly lucrative price for punters to get behind. World Wide has finished end of the field his last three times out, including finishing seventh in the Listed ATC Cup (2000m) behind two of his Christmas Cup rivals, but with great records on soft and heavy tracks, he’s the horse to back. With 68 career starts to his name, World Wide has won six of his eight starts on heavy tracks and placed in the other two. With more rain scheduled to fall in Sydney both today and tomorrow, this is a very good stat to have.
#3 Saigon Tea ($2.35)
Race favourite Saigon Tea also has a good record on heavy-soft tracks, winning three of his four starts on heavy ground and finishing in the first three in all four of his soft runs. The five-year-old mare is one of only two last start winners on the field after claiming a Rosehill Gardens handicap over 1800m last Saturday. The mare has finished in the first three in all four of her last times out and has a good record over the track (4:2-1-0) and distance (3:1-1-1).
#2 Metaphorical ($3.50)
Peter Moody’s four-year-old mare doesn’t have much experience on rain affected tracks but did finish runner-up in the ATC Cup last time out, missing out on the win by just a short neck. She already beat home three of her Christmas Cup rivals then and gets a much better starting gate this time around seeing as she has scored the inside run from barrier one with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle.
Do you agree with our 2014 Christmas Cup betting tips? Make sure to back them at Ladbrokes.com.au for the best fixed-price odds available.
All odds listed are fixed-price and subject to change.
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