Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) is the feature race on the final day of the 2014 Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington tomorrow, once again drawing a strong field of runners over the mile distance.
17 horses have declared for the race with a field limit of 16, which means if there is a late scratching Anthony Cumming’s Spy Decoder ($51) will start the race.
In terms of Emirates Stakes betting at Ladbrokes.com.au, there is no standout favourite as of yet. Contributer is the market mover, seeing his price shorten from $6 to $5 due to a win in the Group 3 David Jones Cup (2000m) on October 18, which followed a win in the Listed Wolferton Handicap (2000m) on June 20.
The four-year-old is followed in 2014 Emirates Stakes betting markets by five other single figure hopefuls, including Lucky Hussler ($6.50), Hooked ($7), Bull Point ($7.50), Hucklebuck ($8.50), and Leebaz ($9).
That’s who the bookies are tipping to win but does the Emirates Stakes’ race history, form guide, and betting statistics offer any more insight on who is the likely winner tomorrow?
Check out all the must-know Emirates Stakes facts below to get a better understanding of who to tip at Ladbrokes.com.au.
2014 Emirates Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Trainer Chris Waller won the Emirates Stakes last year with Boban, who jumped from barrier 3 (of 13) with Glyn Schofield in the saddle
- Waller is represented by both #11 Bull Point ($7.50) and #14 I’m Imposing ($34) in this year’s race
- Hawkes Racing’s #10 Leebaz ($9) will jump from last year’s winning barrier (3)
- Drawing an inside barrier is advantageous due to the 200m metre straight that leads into a long sweeping turn into the home straight
- This is indicated by barrier one producing the most winners since 1983 (5)
- #3 Speediness ($14) will enjoy the inside run from track one this year
- David Hayes (3 wins from 19 starts) and Paul Hayes (3 wins from 7 starts) are the most successful trainers of the Emirates since 1983
- David Hayes will saddle #8 Stipulate ($41) tomorrow along with co-trainer Tom Dabernig
- Jim Cassidy (3 wins from 14 rides) is the most successful jockey of the Emirates since 1983
- The race has been dominated by males with only two mares winning since 2000 – Divine Madonna (2006) and Sky Cuddle (2004). This is because fillies and mares typically race two days prior on Crown Oaks Day
- There are no mares running in the 2014 Emirates Stakes
- Runners with low weights tend to perform much better in the Emirates Stakes – Happy Trails (58kg, 2012) was the first winner to carry more than 55.5kg since Testa Rossa jumped 59kg in 2000
- That means River Lad (58kg), The Cleaner (58kg), Speediness (57kg), Smokin’ Joey (56.5kg), and Hooked (56kg) all have their work cut out for them
- Race favourites don’t have the best record with only three justifying their favouritism in the past 10 years however they typically finish in the first three (7 of the past 10)
- There is not one lead-in race that Emirates Stakes winner come via, though the Cox Plate, Crystal Mile, and Yallambee Stud Stakes have all produced their share of runners
- Only one last start winner has won the Emirates Stakes since 2000 (All Silent) so lead-in form isn’t vital
- Hooked (Group 2 Crystal Mile, 1600m, Moonee Valley, 25/10/2014), Contributer (Group 3 David Jones Cup, 2000m, Caulfield, 18/10/2014), Hucklebuck (Group 3 Yellowglen Stakes, 1400m, Flemington, 01/11/2014) and Lucky Hussler (Group 3 Moonga Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 18/10,2014) are all last start winners
- Hucklebuck has the best Win Rate of the field (58%) followed by Leebaz (55%)
- Meanwhile Leebaz (82%), Contributer (80%), and Hucklebuck (75%) have the best Place Rates
- Those with the best records over the track are: #2 The Cleaner (6:1-3-0) and #7 Hucklebuck (4:2-1-0)
- Those with the best records over the distance are: #2 The Cleaner (13:8-2-0), #3 Speediness (12:2-4-2), #10 Leebaz (4:3-1-0), #13 Desert Jeuney (4:1-0-2) and #15 Rhythm To Spare (8:4-1-1)
Use the above form guide to pick your winner of the 2014 Emirates Stakes at the online bookmaker with the best odds – Ladbrokes.com.au.
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