The Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) is the feature race of Ladies Day in the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington on Thursday, with 12 classy fillies contesting the race.
There are six single figure hopefuls in the betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au, led by Lumosty at $4.80.
She is one of three Robert Smerdon-trained fillies in the race, and one of three last start winners after taking out the Group 2 Fillies Classic (1600m) on October 25. This followed a great nine length maiden victory at Sale Racecourse on October 1, so punters are getting behind her.
Crafty, who is also trained by Smerdon, opened the betting market as $5 favourite before getting edged out by Lumosty. Her last two runs in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) and Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) were great, finishing just a shoulder off the win in both.
The other runners offering single figure odds are: Go Indy Go ($5.50), Set Square ($7.50), Thunder Lady, and Abduction (both $8).
The Wakeful Stakes is considered the key lead-up race to the Crown Oaks with 14 of the past 20 winners coming via the Derby Day Group Two race, eight of which completed the double.
Six of the 12 runners this year are coming via the Wakeful Stakes with Thunder Lady aiming for the double.
That’s what the bookies have to say about the 2014 Crown Oaks but does the race’s history, form guide, and betting statistics add any further insight?
See below for all the must know Crown Oaks facts to give you the best chance at backing a winner.
2014 Crown Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Crown Oaks was won by the John Sargent-trained Kirramosa, who jumped from barrier 10 (of 10) with Nash Rawiller in the saddle
- This year Sargent is represented by #5 Thunder Lady ($8) in gate 8 (of 12) with Tommy Berry as jockey
- #12 Hipster Girl ($51) will jump from last year’s winning barrier
- There’s no one winning barrier with all representing a fairly even spread of winners – five have each brought home three winners since 1983
- The most successful trainer since 1983 for the Crown Oaks is Bart Cummings with 6 wins from 27 starters
- The most successful jockey since that time is Jim Cassidy with 5 wins from 14 rides
- This year Jim will ride #11 Yesterjoy ($41)
- 14 of the last 20 Crown Oaks winners have backed up from the Wakeful with eight completing the double
- Of the remaining six, none have finished further back than sixth in the Wakeful before winning the Oaks which is bad news for Hipster Girl who finished eighth
- Six of this year’s runners are coming via the Wakeful Stakes with Thunder Lady aiming to complete the double
- Along with Thunder Lady there are two last start winners: #4 Lumosty (Group 2 Fillies Classic, 1600m, Moonee Valley, 25/10/2014) and #8 Set Square (Listed Ehtereal Stakes, 2000m, Caulfield, 18/10/2014)
- Favourites do extremely well in the Crown Oaks with 7 of the last 10 winning and only one failing to place which is great news for Lumosty ($4.80)
- Set Square has the best Win Rate (67%) and a perfect Place Rate (100%)
- Those with the best records over the track include: #1 Fontein Ruby (3:2-0-0) and #3 Crafty (3:1-0-1)
- None of the runners have yet to be tested over the 2500m distance of the Crown Oaks
Does any of this point you toward a winner? Open your online betting account at Ladbrokes.com.au to see if the form guide can predict the 2014 Crown Oaks winner.
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