Can Seismos Salute from 2014 Melbourne Cup Barrier 1?

He’s an easing double figure roughie following a below par effort in the Caulfield Cup but can the Marco Botti-trained Seismos improve and win the Melbourne Cup 2014 from the inside alley on Tuesday?

Seismos

Seismos is looking to improve on a Caulfield Cup 13th in Tuesday’s 2014 Melbourne Cup. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Flemington Race 7 tomorrow jumps at 3:00pm (AEDT) and the field for the $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) is down to 23 following the early scratching of Sea Moon.

Eleven of the remaining runners are prepared outside of Australia or New Zealand including Botti’s $51 outsider, drifting from $34, in the latest Melbourne Cup odds at Ladbrokes.com.au – Seismos.

The Dalakhani seven-year-old won the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2700m) back home in the UK on August 16 before his local Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock (ATB) connections bought him over to target the Spring Cups double.

First-up down under the former German-trained galloper was disappointing, over-racing in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) and under pressure a long way out before finishing 5.5 lengths off the winner in 15th spot.

Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti from Japan is now the $5.50 Melbourne Cup favourite while Seismos is at the other end of the markets to become the 14th horse in the past 31 years to come via the Caulfield Cup.

Botti remains confident of improvement from his runner despite the effort last time out believing Flemington to suit better than the tight Caulfield circuit.

“I never actually thought coming here that he was going to be a Caulfield Cup horse,” Botti told Racing Victoria.

“I didn’t think he was going to be a chance in that race because the track was too tight for him and he takes his time to really get going.

“I’m sure the Melbourne Cup trip (3200m) will suit him much better.”

He also rates barrier one as a favourable starting position for the on-pace stayer.

“I thought he was impressive in the Geoffrey Freer, he took a while to get going and then he really battled on to the line,” Botti said.

“Being drawn in one I suppose is better than being drawn the outside because he’s not the quickest horse from the stalls but at the same time he needs to be ridden up on the pace.

“He’s very genuine and he tries his best all the time.

“The ground could be a touch too quick for him so a little bit of rain would be welcome but he is in good form, I’m very happy with the horse and he should run a good race.”

Botti has been represented in the past two editions of the Melbourne Cup by Jakkalberry (3rd to Green Moon in 2012) and Dandino (5th behind Fiornete in 2013).

So can he go all the way to first this year?

Seismos 2014 Melbourne Cup Jockey Silks

Seismos wears all yellow 2014 Melbourne Cup Jockey Silks

Melbourne Cup Horse Form: #7 Seismos

  • Barrier: 1
  • Weight: 56kg
  • Jockey: Craig Newitt
  • Trainer: Marco Botti
  • Owners: Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock Pty Ltd, Mr S N Davidson, Mrs A Davidson, Mr M A Fitzgerald, Mr S T Gillespie, Mr D R Wagner, Mr P R Gunner, Merlin Bloodstock, Love Racing, Eureka Gorillas Inc, Mr J B Stokes, Mrs D Stokes, Trawool Valley, Mr P J Treloar, Mr T Mitevski, Hardway Thoroughbreds, Mr G A Sharp, Mr B Danaher, Mrs A M Lynch, Atb Seismos
  • Age: 7YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Dalakhani (IRE) from Sasuela (GER)
  • Career: 25-7-3-2
  • Win: 28%
  • Place: 48%
  • Last 6: x641x0
  • Prize Money: $531,656
  • Track: 0-0-0-0
  • Distance: 2-0-0-0
  • Current 2014 Melbourne Cup Odds: $51

Why Seismos Can Still Win the 2014 Melbourne Cup

  • Barrier 1 will suit him better than one of the outside draws
  • Won the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2700m) in his last run back home carrying 59kg
  • Defeated Willing Foe in the Geoffrey Freer who is now a $31 shot for the Melbourne Cup
  • Can be forgiven for his Caulfield Cup run beaten under six lengths and unsuited to the track and distance
  • Step up to 3200m will suit as will the roomier Flemington track
  • Botti prepared Jakkalberry for a third in the 2012 Melbourne Cup on the back of a distant Caulfield Cup 13th which is the same form of Seismos (15th)

Why Seismos Won’t Win the Melbourne Cup 2014

  • Has drawn the inside alley which in the bumper field has been a disadvantage historically with the last Melbourne Cup winner to jump from barrier one being Kingston Rule (1990)
  • Has 56kg which is the same as the Caulfield Cup and sees him give notable kilos away to some smart rivals including #22 Luica Valentina (53kg)
  • Craig Newitt has never ridden a Melbourne Cup winner
  • Marco Botti has never trained a Melbourne Cup winner
  • Yet to race over the track
  • Has had two runs over the distance but was 10th and sixth in those runs back in March
  • Low Win Rate but 48% Place Rate so better for top three than the win

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