The headline of four Group 1 races at Flemington Racecourse for the opening Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting on Saturday is the 2014 Victoria Derby, betting tips for the three-year-olds’ classic found below.
There’s a capacity field facing off in this year’s $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m), the favourite for the 160th running of the set weights clash being the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.
Drawn in gate 11 with Kerrin McEvoy to ride, the Redoute’s Choice colt is shooting for his third win on the trot in his Victorian debut and is at a firming $2.60 through Ladbrokes.com.au in their Victoria Derby odds.
That price has come in from $2.80 with punters tipping him to emulate Waterhouse’s success from 1995 when Nothin’ Leica Dane completed the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes – Victoria Derby double.
Hampton Court also won the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney this year and now faces a test stepping up over 2500m for the first time.
Second pick at $6, out from $5.50, is then the classy Chris Waller-trained maiden Preferment in his Group race debut on the back of a devastatingly close second in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m) from October 22.
The other two single figure hopes to become just the third hope under $10 to win the Derby since 2008 are then last weekend’s Moonee Valley Vase winner Moonovermanhattan ($8.50), and the rails-drawn Bondeiger ($9.50) who was a fast finishing seventh in the Vase. For owner Laurence Eales who lost the Derby 2007 with his odds-on favourite Whobegotyou rolled by 100/1 outsider Rebel Raider.
So is the top quartet the ones to back in your Victoria Derby First Four bets at Ladbrokes.com.au?
Or is there value to be found further down the markets for another upset like two years ago with Fiveandahalfstar ($41) from the likes of in-form Kiwi Atmosphere ($11), UCI Stakes winner Magicool ($21) or even the John O’Shea-trained Gouldian ($26)?
#2 Moonovermanhattan ($8.50)
Mick Price’s Manhattan Rain colt isn’t bred for the distance but his form indicates he’ll handle the step up. Two back in the Caulfield Guineas ran seventh but was closing fast and showed more distance suited when up from a mile to 2040m last weekend in the Moonee Valley Vase. He won that by nearly two lengths in a top effort. History shows that running top three in the lead-up to the Derby is ideal and the Vase has produced more winners in the past 20 years than any other race so two ticks for him there. Drawn wider in barrier 12 but did it in the Vase from the outside (11) and Craig Newitt stays on.
#13 Preferment ($6)
Waller’s son of Zabeel is bred to go the distance and while a maiden probably should have won at least two of his six starts to date. Out to break through with his first win then when up to Group company for the first time on the back of a nostril-flare defeat in the Geelong Classic which has been an okay Derby form line to follow in recent years. Should appreciate getting up over 2500m after the strong 2200m effort and Damien Oliver is the right hoop to stay on with four wins in this race in the past 31 years. Is an untapped youngster showing plenty of upside and from a midfield draw should get a gun run.
#1 Hampton Court ($2.60)
Favourites have a poor record in the Derby over the past 10 years and while Waterhouse’s Sydney raider is deserving top fancy base do his lead-up form in Sydney, think he’ll be beaten to the line. Out to emulate Monaco Consul (2009) who was the last to win the Spring Champion Stakes – Victoria Derby double and should be competitive despite barrier 11.
Whether you’re backing or sacking our Victoria Derby betting tips make sure you place your bets online at Ladbrokes.com.au where if you back the winners of the last eight races on the Flemington card on Saturday you can win $3 million!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change