Can Market Mover Bondeiger Win the 2014 Victoria Derby?

He is one of the early market movers for Saturday’s Victoria Derby 2014 but is the money trail on the Danny O’Brien-trained Bondeiger worth following at Flemington on the weekend?

James Winks rides Bondeiger in Saturday’s 2014 Victoria Derby. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

The War Pass colt faces a full field of fellow three-year-olds for the 160th edition of the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) and has been backed into single figures to win through Ladbrokes.com.au.

The up-and-comer, who has won two of his five starts to date, opened at $10 in the Victoria Derby odds but has since come into $9 and now sits as one of four single figure chances in Australia’s oldest classic.

Horses under $10 haven’t got a great recent record in the race however.

Before Polanski ($5.50) last year four of the previous five winners of the Victoria Derby all jumped at double figures with Fiveandahalfstar ($41), Sangster ($13), Lion Tamer ($13) and Rebel Raider ($100).

Bondeiger stepped up to black-type company for the first time last Saturday when running in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).

That race has been an excellent guide to the Derby in recent years and Bondeiger’s seventh place finish behind fellow rival on Saturday Moonovermanhattan ($8.50) was a brave, fast-finishing effort.

He drew barrier 10 (of 11) in the Vase and was forced back to last but flew over the closing stages making up lots of late ground and could be finishing closer when up in distance again on Saturday.

Victoria Derby Horse Form: #9 Bondeiger

  • Barrier: 1
  • Weight: 55.5kg
  • Jockey: James Winks
  • Trainer: Danny O’Brien
  • Owners: Eales Racing Pty Ltd, Mr A W Eales
  • Age: 3YO
  • Gender: Colt
  • Breeding: by War Pass (USA) from Debutante Robe (JPN)
  • Career: 5-2-1-1
  • Win: 40%
  • Place: 80%
  • Last 6: 3×2117
  • Prize Money: $111,175
  • Track: 0-0-0-0
  • Distance: 0-0-0-0
  • Current 2014 Victoria Plate Odds: $9

Why Bondeiger Can Win the Victoria Derby 2014

  • Was flying home late in the Moonee Valley Vase last weekend after starting from an outside barrier
  • 11 of the past 21 Victoria Derby winners came via a run in the Moonee Valley Vase
  • Gets barrier one on Saturday which produced last year’s winner Polanski as well as Monaco Consul (2009), Blevic (1994), Redding (1992) and Bounty Hawk (1983) in the past 31 years
  • Jockey James Winks stays on having ridden him for all five of his career starts to date including two wins
  • Has one of the best Win (40%) and Place (80%) rates of the field

Why Bondeiger Won’t be the 2014 Victoria Derby Winner

  • Winks has never ridden a Derby champ nor O’Brien trained one
  • Beaten four lengths in the Vase and faces a number of the same rivals on Saturday
  • Needs to stay out of trouble in the big field from the inside alley
  • Since 1992 all the Victoria Derby winners have run top three in their lead-up runs which rules Bondeiger out (7th)
  • To back Bondeiger at the best Victoria Derby odds head to Ladbrokes.com.au where you can turn $3 into $3 million by picking the winners of the last eight races at Flemington!

 

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