Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The first of the Group races on the Moonee Valley race card this Cox Plate Day is the 2014 Moonee Valley Fillies Classic – tips and betting selections for the three-year-old’s feature found below.
There are nine fillies in the mix for this year’s $200,000 Group 3 Drummond Golf Fillies Classic (1600m) that jumps at 2:25pm (AEDT) as Moonee Valley Race 3.
The odds-on favourite in the Moonee Valley Fillies Classic betting markets at Ladbrokes.com.au is the Robert Smerdon-trained Lumosty paying $1.80, in from $1.85, with a gun barrier two draw and Nicholas Hall to ride.
She’s nominated for the $1 million Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) during Flemington’s Melbourne Cup Carnival along with her better fancied stable mates Fontein Ruby and Crafty who ran one-two in the Caulfield Classic last Saturday.
Now it is Lumosty’s turn as the daughter of Fastnet Rock looks to improve on her last start eighth in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) behind Amicus on October 11.
There were a couple of hard luck stories coming out of the Thousand Guineas however and Lumosty won at Sale by a blistering nine lengths before that indicating that the step back down in class on Saturday should suit.
She’s joined on single figures in the Moonee Valley Fillies Classic odds then by early market mover Tahni Dancer ($5.50 into $4.20) and the Mick Kent-trained Little Hotti ($6) in just her third start before the rest of the field opens right up.
So will the top three in the Fillies Classic betting markets also be the first three over the line?
Or is there an upset Moonee Valley result on the card from the likes of the John O’Shea-trained Berimbau ($13) or the Luke Oliver-trained Kansas Sunflower ($17)?
#1 Lumosty ($1.80)
Is odds-on and on the firm but too good to sack here. Group 3 placed behind subsequent Blue Diamond winner Earthquake as a two-year-old during the autumn, she was runner-up in a Flemington black type first-up before a big nine length effort at Sale over 1423m. Got too far back in the Thousand Guineas and couldn’t finish off as the beaten favourite after doing it tough so from a better barrier two draw on Saturday against easier competition will be hard to beat. Set weights suit and she doesn’t face too much.
#8 Kansas Sunflower ($17)
Could be a blanket finish for second and third and for some value we’re going out on a limb with this market drifter. She opened at $12 earlier in the week but is now at a juicy price to break her maiden status at start number four. Latest effort was only last weekend on Caulfield Cup Day over 1400m when fourth to Sea Spray from barrier nine with Brad Rawiller riding. That was her first look over further than 1100m so should be fitter for the run and better able to handle the metres here despite an outside gate (8) and jockey change (Chris Symons).
#3 Tahni Dancer ($4.20)
Money has been steady for Glen Boss’s mount who is drawn well in barrier three and will be fighting for the win. Clinton McDonald’s Sebring filly was runner-up to Eloping two back at the track in the Group 3 Champagne Stakes (1200m) then stepped up to a mile last weekend in the Thousand Guineas. Was a close fifth over the line, has experience over the distance than and was beaten just two lengths. Short turnaround is the only thing going against her as she handles the track and the metres.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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