Can 11th Hour Chance Renew Win Caulfield Cup 2014?

Four horses have come out of the 2014 Caulfield Cup field paving the way for all the emergencies to gain a start including the last of the hopefuls Renew who comes in for Dear Demi.

Scratched 2014 Caulfield Cup horse Dear Demi

The scratching of Dear Demi (outside) sees Renew start in today’s 2014 Caulfield Cup field. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Clarry Conners’ smart mare Dear Demi was the most recent horse to be scratched from the $3 million Group 1 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup (2400m), last year’s third placegetter suffering from a throat infection.

In her place in the final spot in the 18-starter Caulfield Cup field is then European import Renew, formerly prepared by Marco Botti.

Renew was transferred to the care of young Ballarat trainer Archie Alexander however for his Caulfield Cup bid and will stay on in Australia under Sydney’s premier horseman Chris Waller after the spring.

Botti meanwhile ran second in the Caulfield Cup last year with Dandino, the veteran stayer scratched from a second shot in the world’s richest 2400m handicap due to a leg injury earlier in the week.

The trainer is still represented in Caulfield Race 9 this afternoon however with $21 shot Seismos on the rails with Craig Newitt to ride the last start Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes winner.

OTI-owned five-year-old Dansili gelding Renew was also previously prepared by Botti and bought over to target the Spring Cups down under.

He raced for the UK horseman first-up in Australia last Saturday when a disappointing 12th beating home just one other runner in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) over the Caulfield Cup track and distance behind Big Memory.

Herbert Power Stakes winner Big Memory backs up today as a $21 chance from a wide barrier on the 52kg minimum while Renew is the $201 roughie in Caulfield Cup betting at Ladbrokes.com.au.

Drawn in gate two with apprentice Regan Bayliss to ride, the horse showed nothing of note in the Herbert Power and it is hard to see him improving enough to play any part in the Group 1 classic today.

But still, his chances must be assessed because you have to be in it to win it and nothing is a sure thing in racing, and Bayliss is thrilled just to have secured the unlikely ride.

“Riding in the Caulfield Cup will be amazing,” he told Racing Victoria.

“The Caulfield Cup is the elite, it’s the best jockeys in the world and Australia, so to have a ride in it I know I’m very, very privileged.”

Caulfield Cup Horse Form: #22 Renew

  • Barrier: 2
  • Weight: 52kg
  • Jockey: Regan Bayliss (a)
  • Trainer: Archie Alexander (previously Marco Botti)
  • Owners: O T I Racing, The High Five, Uthmeyer Racing, Mr J Cucuzza, Mr E Micallef, Mr F Micallef, Mr A Micallef, Mr J C Higgins, Mr J A Boyd, Bobbin Along, Mr A Goodfellow, Mr D Dickie, Mr A N Fitzgerald, Mr G Handley, Mr B Cooper, Werrett Bloodstock Pty Ltd, Mr M H Watt
  • Age: 5YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Dansili (GB) from Hold Me Love Me (IRE)
  • Career: 14-3-2-2
  • Win: 21%
  • Place: 50%
  • Last 6: 47×630
  • Prize Money: $81,976
  • Track: 1-0-0-0
  • Distance: 7-3-2-0
  • Current 2014 Caulfield Cup Odds:

Why Renew Could Score an Upset 2014 Caulfield Cup Result

  • If can stay out of trouble barrier two could be a nice spot with Tawqeet the last Caulfield Cup winner to jump from that barrier
  • Is an on-pace runner so the inside alley should suit
  • Gets in on the 52kg minimum and in recent years Southern Speed (2011) and Descardo (2010) have carried a similar weight (52.5kg) to victory
  • Has a nice 2400m record (7-3-2-0) finishing out of the money just twice from seven starts over the distance

Why Renew Won’t Win the 2014 Caulfield Cup

  • Trainer Archie Alexander has never had a Group 1 starter before and the horse has been with him for just five days
  • Alexander has actually had just seven starters in any race before this
  • Inexperienced apprentice hoop Regan Bayliss is thrown in the deep end here
  • Only a moderate 21% win rate but 50% place rate
  • Disappointing first-up Aussie debut (12th in the Herbert Power Stakes)
  • Connections were so disheartened post-Herbert Power they abandoned Melbourne Cup plans
  • Has won under $100,000 in overall prize money
  • Only previous run at the track, and in Australia, was the Herbert Power failure

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