Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This afternoon the Caulfield Cup 2014 takes centre stage in Melbourne and with a host of livewire chances in the market we take a look at the history, form guide, facts and stats on the classic to uncover the value bets.
There are still a capacity 18 starters engaged for this year’s $3 million Group 1 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup (2400m) despite four gallopers being scratched over the past 48 hours.
Coming out of the Caulfield Cup field were: #2 Dandino, #5 Bande, #12 Dear Demi and #18 Gris Caro.
In their place are now the four emergencies: #19 Brambles, #20 Araldo, #21 Unchain My Heart and #22 Renew.
Despite all the drama the Kris Lees-trained four-year-old Savabeel mare Lucia Valentina, looking to become the first of her age and sex to win since Southern Speed (2011), continues to sit top of the Caulfield Cup odds at a steady $4.40.
She jumps from barrier 10 today which last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner also started from and comes via the same lead-up as the reigning champ having beaten a class field home in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October 4.
Also now at single figures in the Caulfield Cup betting markets are a host of genuine threats to the favourite including Chris Waller’s The Metropolitan winner Junoob ($9), and the Peter Moody-trained Turnbull Stakes runner-up Lidari ($9) and third placegetter Brambles ($9.50).
Earlier in the week we published our 2014 Caulfield Cup Form Guide & Betting Preview and now we delve into the historical data on this great race to see which horse history leads us to back at [ladborkes] this year!
2014 Caulfield Cup Facts
- Four-year-old mares won four-straight Caulfield Cups during the 1970’s and had five wins from 1985 – 2001
- Since Ethereal (2011) however 24 4YO mares have run in the race and the only winner was Southern Speed (2011)
- Only three others ran top three with: Republic Lass (3rd in 2002), Princess Coup (3rd in 2007) and Dear Demi (3rd in 2013)
- The other 20 failed to finish in the top half of their respective fields
- #12 Dear Demi was scratched from another shot this year due to a throat infection
- Along with the favourite #15 Lucia Valentina ($4.40) the other four-year-old mare in the mix is #16 Rising Romance ($13)
- Donna Logan’s New Zealand raider Rising Romance defeated Lucia Valentina home in the Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m) over this distance in Sydney during the autumn when they ran first and third respectively
- Lucia Valentina is the shortest-priced four-year-old mare in the Caulfield Cup in 13 years
- The last to start at comparable odds was Leilani (9/4 or $3.25 in 1974)
- Southern Speed (2011) won as a $10 shot but only two others were under $10 in Caulfield Cup betting with Republic Lass ($9 when 3rd in 2002) and Royal Descent ($7 when 5th in 2013)
- Ethereal was co $8 favourite with Sky Heights the year she won and is the last 4YO mare to jump the punters’ pick
- The last Caulfield Cup favourite to win was Master O’Reilly ($9.50 in 2007) after Maldivian was scratched at the barriers
- Seven of the past nine Caulfield Cup winners jumped at double-figures
- The last horse to complete the Turnbull Stakes – Caulfield Cup double that Lucia Valentina shoots for was Elvstorem (2004)
- Fawkner (2013) was the fourth horse in five years however to win the Caulfield Cup off a run in the Turnbull (at Flemington)
- The Turnbull Stakes has produced 12 of the past 30 Caulfield Cup winners
- The best lead-up race however is the Underwood Stakes with 13 winners in that time
- 2014 Caulfield Cup horses coming through the Underwood this year are Lidari (4th), Stipulate (7th) and The Offer (9th)
- Nine Caulfield Cup winners in 30 years have run in both the Underwood and Turnbull Stakes in the lead-up which all three of the above horses have done this year
- #14 Lidari ($9) however also ran in the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes that no Caulfield Cup winner has come via since Silver Bounty (1981)
- Also with a hoodoo to overcome is #8 Hawkspur ($18) looking to take out the Chelmsford Stakes – Caulfield Cup double for the first time in 30 years
- #6 The Offer ($26) is looking to make history as the first Sydney Cup winner to back-up in the spring and take out the Caulfield Cup
- Double digit Caulfield Cup barriers have produced four of the past five winners including Fawkner (2013)
- #3 Green Moon ($34) is looking to become only the second horse along with Purser (2nd in 1921 and 1st in 1924) to return and win the Caulfield Cup three years after his second to Southern Speed (2011)
- Green Moon on 57kg is looking to become the sixth horse since 1972 to carry that weight to victory including Sydeston (1990) and Viewed (2009)
- #1 Admire Rakti (58kg) meanwhile has the top weight and is looking to join Ming Dynasty (1980), Northerly (2002) and Dunaden (2012) as previous Caulfield Cup winners with 58kg
Think you’ve made your Caulfield Cup selections based on the above historical facts and statistics?
Then head to Ladbrokes.com.au and back your favourites online at the best price at the booking turning $3 into $3 million with their Megapick promo this spring!
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