Can 1st Emergency Brambles Sneak in and Steal Caulfield Cup?

Odds are that South Australian galloper Gris Caro will be scratched from Saturday’s 2014 Caulfield Cup field paving the way for Brambles to come in as the first emergency, but if he does run what are his chances of success?

Brambles (inside)

Brambles (inside) comes off a third to Lucia Valentina (outside) and Lidari (centre) in the Turnbull Stakes. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Trainer Peter Moody ran second and third behind Saturday’s Caulfield Cup favourite Lucia Valentina at Flemington on October 4 with stable mates Lidari and Brambles finishing in the money in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m).

Acclamation stallion Lidari is assured of a run in the $3 million Group 1 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup (2400m) and is drawn nicely in barrier four with 53.5kg paying $13 through Ladbrokes.com.au to win.

Brambles meanwhile sweats on a start having just missed the 18-horse cutoff, the 2012 Queensland Derby winner the first of four emergencies in the world’s richest 2400m handicap.

The six-year-old son of Savabeel is the notable Caulfield Cup betting market mover however having been slashed from $26 earlier in the week right into $15 with it looking more and more likely Gris Caro will be scratched.

A disappointing 12th to Lucia Valentina, who is now the $4.60 top fancy in Caulfield Cup odds, Gris Caro pulled up sore after the Turnbull Stakes, and must now pass a vet test by Racing Victoria stewards this afternoon.

Stephens is far from confident rating his horse a “highly unlikely” chance of running on Saturday being lame in the off-fore leg boosting Moody’s confidence in Brambles.

So with Brambles likely to jump and steal jockey Luke Nolen from Lidari, who Ben Melham will come in to ride, can he also steal the Caulfield Cup trophy?

Caulfield Cup Horse Form: #19e Brambles

  • Barrier: 11 (into 9)
  • Weight: 53.5kg
  • Jockey: Luke Nolen
  • Trainer: Peter Moody
  • Owners: Mr P G Moody, O T I Uthmeyer Higgins, Maverick Racing, Mr D M Minogue, Mr J A Neeson, Mr C Sarantakos, Mrs B White, Dooner Armidale Racing, Mr R De Zoete-Spiero, The Flo
  • Age: 6YO
  • Gender: Gelding
  • Breeding: by Savabeel from Prickle (NZ)
  • Career: 17-6-3-3
  • Win: 35%
  • Place: 71%
  • Last 6: 088213
  • Prize Money: $700,258
  • Track: 3-0-1-0
  • Distance: 1-1-0-0
  • Current 2014 Caulfield Cup Odds: $15

Why Brambles Can Win the 2014 Caulfield Cup

  • Looks almost certain to get a run as the first emergency now
  • Is the Caulfield Cup market mover ($26 into $15)
  • Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner came off a third in the Turnbull Stakes as does Brambles
  • Moody will take top jockey Luke Nolen off Lidari to ride Brambles if he makes the cut
  • Drawn well in barrier 11 which will become nine – the race’s most successful draw with five winners since 1983 most recently Railings (2005)
  • A light weight chance with 53.5kg, a kilo less than his Turnbull weight last start
  • A Group 1 winner over the distance having won the Queensland Derby as a three-year-old

Why Brambles Won’t be the 2014 Caulfield Cup Winner

  • Despite all the talk he’s still not 100% guaranteed a run
  • #14 Lidari ($13) is the better fancied of the Moody pair in Caulfield Cup betting
  • Was beaten by both Saturday’s favourite #15 Lucia Valentina ($4.60) and Lidari in the Turnbull Stakes
  • Boasts an equal best Place Rate of 71% so could be a better top three chance
  • Is Caulfield his track? Has finished in the money just once here in three starts

To back Brambles before his price firms further with the imminent scratching of Gris Caro, head to Ladbrokes.com.au – home of the $3 million Megapick this spring for punters willing to outlay just $3!

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