Is Rising Romance the Better Value 4YO Mare in the 2014 Caulfield Cup?

This weekend Lucia Valentina jumps clear favourite in Melbourne’s Caulfield Cup 2014 but is there more value to be found backing the other four-year-old mare in the mix Rising Romance who has already beaten Saturday’s top fancy?

Rising Romance

ATC Oaks winner Rising Romance is out to beat Lucia Valentina again in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup 2014. Photo: Steve Hart.

Rising Romance and Lucia Valentina are the two four-year-old mares taking on the older stayers in the $3 million Group 1 Crown Golden Ale Caulfield Cup (2400m), the latter at a firming $4.40 through to win.

She comes off a Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) victory at Flemington, which last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner ran third in last spring, and looks well positioned in barrier 12 (into 10) to stay in touch with the pacemakers in the mile and a half classic.

Further down the Caulfield Cup odds however is Rising Romance paying $15 for an upset win.

Like the favourite Donna Logan’s daughter of Ekraar carries 53kg as she looks to become the first mare, and four-year-old, to win since Southern Speed (2011).

She’s already proven she can upset Lucia Valentina when defeating the $1.80 favourite who ran third in the Group 1 Australian Oaks (2400m) at Randwick back in April, a result connections are hoping she can repeat here.

That was the second time Rising Romance defeated her having also gotten the better of Saturday’s top fancy in the Group 2 Royal Stakes (2000m) at Ellerslie back in January.

Lucia Valentina however did beat her twice including in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill in April when Rising Romance finished fourth before the Oaks.

Rising Romance was last seen running second behind one of Chris Waller’s four Caulfield Cup hopes Moriarty in the Group 3 Craven Plate (2000m) at Randwick on October 4 and runs in Melbourne for the first time here a planned by her New Zealand-based trainer Logan.

“We had always planned to have a nice soft campaign before the Caulfield Cup,” Logan told Racing Network.

“We figured there was plenty of time to take on the big guns and we would do so when we are at peak fitness.

“That is why I’ve kept her in Sydney and waited to bring her down, she is ready now.”

So will the ATC Oaks form stand and can Rising Romance defeat Lucia Valentina, as well as 16 other class stayers, on Saturday?

Caulfield Cup Horse Form: #16 Rising Romance

  • Barrier: 17 (possibly into 14)
  • Weight: 53kg
  • Jockey: James McDonald
  • Trainer: Donna Logan
  • Owners: Mr N J Carter, Mr B H Carter, Mr M R Powell
  • Age: 4YO
  • Gender: Mare
  • Breeding: by Ekraar from Post Romance
  • Career: 13-4-3-1
  • Win: 31%
  • Place: 62%
  • Last 6: 41×472
  • Prize Money: $958,622
  • Track: 0-0-0-0
  • Distance: 2-1-1-0
  • Current 2014 Caulfield Cup Odds: $15

Yes – Rising Romance Can Beat the 2014 Caulfield Cup Favourite

  • If she comes into barrier 13 that’s one of the best Caulfield Cup gates with three winners in the past 31 years
  • Well weighted on 53kg the same as the favourite
  • Drops back three kilos from her Craven Plate weight (56kg) last start
  • Kiwi connection with New Zealand expat James McDonald staying on
  • Four-year-olds have won 16 of the past 31 Caulfield Cups, easily the most successful age group
  • Only other 4YO in the race is the favourite Lucia Valentina
  • Has twice defeated the top pick including over this distance (2400m) in the Group 1 ATC Oaks back in April in Sydney
  • Decent record over 2400m (2-1-1-0) including the ATC Oaks win

No – Rising Romance Won’t Win the Caulfield Cup 2014

  • She’s got a wide barrier 17 at present which at best will become gate 13 on Cup Day
  • The last New Zealand-trained mare to win the Caulfield Cup was Ethereal (2001)
  • Yet to race at Caulfield so sees the track for the first time in her Melbourne debut here
  • Place Rate (62%) is twice as good as her Win Rate (31%) so could be safer Each Way

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