Guineas Day will take place this Saturday, October 11 at Caulfield Racecourse, featuring four Group One races. The leading race for fillies is the 2014 Thousand Guineas, for which a detailed form guide and betting preview is detailed below.
This year’s $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) features a field of 11 classy fillies and will run as Race 8 at 5:05pm.
Four of those 11 are currently leading the betting markets with single figure odds through Ladbrokes.com.au, though none have reached odds-on-favouritism just yet.
Current favourite is Go Indy Go ($4.60), the Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas-trained three-year-old. She’s placed in five of her six career starts, but has had a tougher time during her spring campaign. A dead-last Group 2 Danehill Stakes (1200m) finish in September was followed up with a minor placing in the Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m).
That’s who the bookies are tipping to win but what does the race’s history and form have to say?
2014 Thousand Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Thousand Guineas winner was the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph from barrier five (of nine) with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle
- Both Snowden and McEvoy are unrepresented this year, opting for the males-only Caulfield Guineas instead
- The Guineas’ most successful trainers are Lee Freedman with four wins from 30 starts and Bart Cummings with four wins from 18 starts since 1983
- The most successful jockey is Damien Oliver with five wins from 17 rides
- This year Oliver will ride #3 Afleet Esprit ($5)
- Race favourites have an excellent record with seven saluting in the last 11 years
- While punters have generally reaped rewards since 1983, with the Thousand Guineas favourite winning 13 times and placing six
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) has been drawn by #8 Tahni Dancer ($14)
- Strangely, the Thousand Guineas Prelude is not the race to source a winner as it has only provided one in the last 10 years, Irish Lights (2008)
- This does not bode well for #3 Afleet Esprit but with seven runners backing up from the Prelude, one is likely to succeed
- The Manifold Stakes is the key lead-up race to the Thousand Guineas, with eight winners progressing from this race in the last 14 years
- However no filly is making the trip from the 1600m Flemington race this year
- #3 Afleet Esprit (Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude, 1400m, Caulfield, 28/09/2014) and #6 Lumosty (Maiden Stakes, 1423m, Sale, 01/10/2014) are the only two last start winners in Saturday’s field, both offering odds of $5
- The filly with the highest Win Rate is Afleet Esprit (67%) followed by #1 Bring Me The Maid (43%).
- The filly with the best Place Rate then is #6 Lumosty (100%) followed #2 by Go Indy Go, Afleet Esprit, and #5 Amicus (83%)
- Those with the best Caulfield track record are: #4 Sabatini (2-1-0-0), Afleet Esprit (1-1-0-0), and Amicus (2-0-2-0)
- None of the entries have yet to run over the track & distance of the Thousand Guineas
Races.com.au will publish our 2014 Thousand Guineas tips shortly so stay tuned!
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