Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Guineas Day will take place this Saturday, October 11 at Caulfield Racecourse, featuring four Group One races. The leading race for fillies is the 2014 Thousand Guineas, for which a detailed form guide and betting preview is detailed below.
This year’s $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) features a field of 11 classy fillies and will run as Race 8 at 5:05pm.
Four of those 11 are currently leading the betting markets with single figure odds through Ladbrokes.com.au, though none have reached odds-on-favouritism just yet.
Current favourite is Go Indy Go ($4.60), the Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas-trained three-year-old. She’s placed in five of her six career starts, but has had a tougher time during her spring campaign. A dead-last Group 2 Danehill Stakes (1200m) finish in September was followed up with a minor placing in the Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m).
That’s who the bookies are tipping to win but what does the race’s history and form have to say?
2014 Thousand Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Thousand Guineas winner was the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph from barrier five (of nine) with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle
- Both Snowden and McEvoy are unrepresented this year, opting for the males-only Caulfield Guineas instead
- The Guineas’ most successful trainers are Lee Freedman with four wins from 30 starts and Bart Cummings with four wins from 18 starts since 1983
- The most successful jockey is Damien Oliver with five wins from 17 rides
- This year Oliver will ride #3 Afleet Esprit ($5)
- Race favourites have an excellent record with seven saluting in the last 11 years
- While punters have generally reaped rewards since 1983, with the Thousand Guineas favourite winning 13 times and placing six
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) has been drawn by #8 Tahni Dancer ($14)
- Strangely, the Thousand Guineas Prelude is not the race to source a winner as it has only provided one in the last 10 years, Irish Lights (2008)
- This does not bode well for #3 Afleet Esprit but with seven runners backing up from the Prelude, one is likely to succeed
- The Manifold Stakes is the key lead-up race to the Thousand Guineas, with eight winners progressing from this race in the last 14 years
- However no filly is making the trip from the 1600m Flemington race this year
- #3 Afleet Esprit (Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude, 1400m, Caulfield, 28/09/2014) and #6 Lumosty (Maiden Stakes, 1423m, Sale, 01/10/2014) are the only two last start winners in Saturday’s field, both offering odds of $5
- The filly with the highest Win Rate is Afleet Esprit (67%) followed by #1 Bring Me The Maid (43%).
- The filly with the best Place Rate then is #6 Lumosty (100%) followed #2 by Go Indy Go, Afleet Esprit, and #5 Amicus (83%)
- Those with the best Caulfield track record are: #4 Sabatini (2-1-0-0), Afleet Esprit (1-1-0-0), and Amicus (2-0-2-0)
- None of the entries have yet to run over the track & distance of the Thousand Guineas
Races.com.au will publish our 2014 Thousand Guineas tips shortly so stay tuned!
In the meantime, open your Ladbrokes.com.au online betting account and receive a 100% bonus match up to $500 on your first deposit. Just quote code: SPRINGBONUS.
2014 Thousand Guineas Form Guide
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