Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This weekend’s major race for stayers in Sydney is the 2014 Metropolitan, for which a detailed form guide and betting preview is detailed below.
This year’s $400,000 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2400m), which features a field of 16 talented horses, is the last race on Epsom Handicap Day and will run as race 9 at 5:20pm at Royal Randwick Racecourse.
Just three of those 16 are leading the betting markets with single figure odds through Ladbrokes.com.au, though none have reached odds-on favouritism just yet.
Current favourite is the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained Spillway ($4.60), who will jump from barrier nine with jockey James McDonald to ride.
Spillway has been racing well this preparation despite not a lot going right last time out in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m). The horse finished seventh in the Caulfield race after being awkwardly positioned at the turn with nowhere to go.
However connections are confident he can make amends with the increase in distance to 2400m.
He’s followed in the Metrop odds by just two other single figure hopes with Group 2 Hill Stakes (2000m) winner Junoob proving a hot market mover after being shortened to $5 (from $7) and Hawkes Racing’s La Amistad offering a price of $7.50.
That’s who the bookies are tipping to win but what does the race’s history and form have to say?
2014 The Metropolitan Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Metrop winner was the Robert Hickmott-trained Seville who carried 55.5kg from barrier 8 (of 14) with Hugh Bowman in the saddle
- This year Team Hickmott is without representation while Bowman will ride #2 Bagman ($13) for Chris Waller
- The Turnbull Stakes’ most successful trainer is Gai Waterhouse with 8 wins from 36 starters since 1983
- This year Waterhouse is represented by #5 Travolta ($19)
- Larry Cassidy is the most successful Metrop jockey with four wins and will be riding #10 Kingdoms ($11)
- Race favourites have a poor Turnbull Stakes record in recent years with just two of the past 10 saluting, the most recent of which was Glencadam Gold (2012)
- Last year’s winning barrier (8) has been drawn by #8 Our Voodoo Prince ($19)
- However this was the first time barrier 8 produced a Metrop winner since 1983
- The most successful Metropolitan barrier during that time has been 4 with six winners, which this year belongs to #11 Wish Come True ($21)
- The taxing 2400m track has generally favoured horses at the bottom end of the weight scale with seven of the last ten winners carrying 54kg or less
- However with weight’s raised 3.5kg this year, the lightest weight is 55.5kg which is carried by 11 of the runners so no real advantage
- In fact, six of the past 10 The Metropolitan winners were unplaced in their final lead-up race and five of the past 10 winners won at big odds
- This means #1 Junoob, #10 Kingdoms, #12 Deane Martin, and #13 Disclaimer have no advantage after winning their last starts
- In saying that, the best lead-up race for the Metrop would ultimately be the Colin Stephen Handicap (2400m) with three winners in the past 10 years coming from that race
- This is good news for #5 Travolta (5th), #12 Deane Martin (1st), and #15 Iggi Pop (2nd)
- The horse with the highest Win Rate of the field is #7 La Amistad (36%) followed by #1 Junoob (33%) and #9 Araldo (31%)
- The best Place Rate then belongs to Araldo (69%) followed by #2 Bagman (60%), #11 Wish Come True (64%), Junoob and #16 Khalid (60%)
- Those with the best Randwick track record are: #1 Junoob (6-2-2-0), #10 Kingdoms (5-1-0-2), and #5 Travolta (3-1-2-0)
- Previous winners over the Track & Distance are then: #10 Kingdoms (3-1-0-1), #5 Travolta (2-1-1-0), #7 La Amistad (1-1-0-0), and #15 Iggi Pop (1-1-0-0)
Check out the Races.com.au 2014 Metropolitan betting tips to make the best choice in your betting!
Make sure you open your Ladbrokes.com.au online betting account to back your Metrop favourite. Receive a $500 free bet when you make your first deposit! Just quote code: SPRINGBONUS.
2014 Turnbull Stakes Field & Form Guide
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