Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
On Sunday Caulfield Racecourse will host the second Group 1 race of the weekend in Melbourne with a classy field of Group 1 winners and performers facing off in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2014.
Due to jump as Caulfield Race 7 at 4:40pm this year’s $400,000 Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m), registered as the Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup, features 14 top gallopers.
Two currently sit top of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes odds at Ladbrokes.com.au with Peter Moody’s flying four-year-old Dissident and the Gai Waterhouse-trained mare Sweet Idea co-$7 favourites.
Don’t forget that at Ladbrokes this weekend you can back any horse in their Best Tote or SP + 20% markets exclusive to the Sir Rupert Clarke, including Dissident, and get a 20% bonus on your winnings if you win!
Both have smart lead-up form and both are drawn well with Dissident, shooting for his third straight Group 1 win, in gate five and Tommy Berry to ride Sweet Idea from barrier eight.
Sebring gelding Dissident had the upper hand by two and a quarter lengths when these two met back in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m), also run at Caulfield, on August 30.
Dissident was first-up that day and won before backing up at Flemington two weeks later for his narrow Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) victory.
Sweet Idea meanwhile hasn’t run since the Memsie, her second in which came on the back of a Group 2 Missile Stakes win in Sydney.
So will these two battle it out for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes quinella?
Or is it worth looking further down the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes betting markets for value with a host of other livewire chances including Team Snowden’s progressive four-year-old Cluster ($7.50) or even market mover Trust In A Gust ($8 in from $9) up in class here after saluting at the track and distance last Saturday?
To help uncover where the value is at for Sunday’s showdown the Races.com.au team have gone over the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes field and form guide to come up with the below must know facts and historical statistics.
2014 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner was the Gary Portelli-trained Rebel Dane who won the race third-up off a fourth in the Bobbie Lewis, jumped from barrier 14 (of 16) and was ridden by Glen Boss
- This year Portelli is without representation but Glen Boss has the ride on #4 A Time For Julia ($9) drawn on the rails for Peter Moody
- Last year’s winning barrier (14) is the outside gate on Sunday and belongs to #7 Cluster ($7.50) with Tim Clark to ride
- Barrier 14 has produced a total of three Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winners since 1983
- Wide barriers have been no disadvantage with 16 of the past 30 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winners jumping from 10 or wider, including 10 from 14 or wider
- The most successful Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes gate in that time meanwhile has been one wider (15) with four winners
- Other barriers with three winners in the past 31 years are then 5 and 8 which belong this year to #1 Dissident and #3 Sweet Idea respectively who are the $7 co-favourites in betting
- Favourites have saluted in the race three times in the past decade including the past two on the trot with Rebel Dane (2013) and Moment Of Change (2012)
- Before that however the last favourite to win was Bon Hoffa back in 2007
- Rebel Dane carried 55.5kg to victory 12 months ago which is the weight allocated this year to #2 Speediness ($10)
- #2 Speediness (barrier 12) is also drawn in the third widest barrier like Rebel Dane was last year
- The only horse to carry more than 55.5kg to victory since 2000 (Testa Rossa, 58.5kg) was Toorak Toff (56.5kg in 2011)
- This year that rules out the 58kg top weight #1 Dissident
- 10 of the 14 horses in the race are on the 52kg minimum and the only Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winners since 2000 to win on the minimum are Rewaaya (51kg, 2006) and Response (53.5kg, 2010)
- With those, and the top weight #1 Dissident ruled out, that leaves #2 Speediness (55.5kg), #3 Sweet Idea (53.5kg) and #4 Alma’s Fury (53kg) with the right weight for a win
- Rebel Dane won third-up last year and horses three runs into their campaign on Sunday are #1 Dissident, #3 Sweet Idea, #5 A Time For Julia, #11 Bull Point and #12 Late Charge
- Rebel Dane came off a fourth in the Bobbie Lewis and became the fifth Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner in seven years to come off a top-five run in that lead-up race
- This year Bobbie Lewis Top 5 runners backing up in the Group 1 are #2 Speediness (4th) and #8 Sistine Demon (5th)
- Sixth and seventh in the Bobbie Lewis, #10 Akavoroun and #4 Alma’s Fury, are also in the field on Sunday
- There are five last start winners in the mix with #1 Dissident (Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, 1600m, Flemington, 13/09/2014), #6 Atlante (Listed Drummond Golf Stakes, 1200m, Moonee Valley, 06/09/2014), #7 Cluster (Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, 1400m, Rosehill, 13/09/2014), #12 Late Charge (Listed The Sofitel, Flemington, 1400m, 13/09/2014) and #13 Trust In A Gust (Handicap, 1400m, Caulfield, 20/09/2014)
- The horse with the highest Win Rate in the field is #10 Akavoroun (75%)
- The highest Place Rate also belongs to #10 Akavoroun (88%) followed closely by #3 Sweet Idea (87%) and #13 Trust In A Gust (87%)
- #8 Sistine Demon (5-5-0-0) and #10 Akavoroun (4-4-0-0) are undefeated over the 1400m and boaststhe best records over the distance
Stay tuned for the Races.com.au’s insider Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes tips.
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2014 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Field & Form Guide
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