Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
After drifting out over the past 24 hours the money is starting to turn and come back for Peter Moody’s track and distance specialist Moment Of Change to win the 2014 Memsie Stakes this afternoon.
Earlier in the week the Races.com.au team tipped the Moody-trained Barley A Moment six-year-old to retain his undefeated 1400m Caulfield record with a fifth win over the course and metres in the $400,000 Group 1 New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (1400m).
Jumping from barrier eight of 11 with Luke Nolen aboard, the gelding gets back up to the 1400m for the first time since winning the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Caulfield on February 22.
That completed a Group 1 double following the CF Orr Stakes on February 8 and also gave Moment Of Change his third elite level over the track and distance he sees again today.
Despite all those statistics the horse eased out from $4.80 to $6.50 in Memsie Stakes betting at Ladbrokes.com.au over the week.
He is now back into $5.50 however and here’s why:
- Boasts the best record at Caulfield (5-4-1-0)
- Boasts the best record over the 1400m (6-4-0-2)
- Undefeated at the track and distance (4-4-0-0)
- Three-time Group 1 winner over the 1400m at Caulfield
- Top 74% place rate
- On pace style suits if they walk it in
- Game first-up run as beaten favourite in the Regal Roller carrying 61kg to give the winner Hard Stride an eight kilo advantage
So that’s the Memsie Stakes winner sorted but what about the trifecta?
The punters have been keen on Chris Waller’s triple Group 1 winner Boban, the son of Bernardini now into $3.60 favouritism.
However Waller has expressed some concerns over the 1400m in a high-class field and knows the mile is the gelding’s pet distance.
We agree and are happy to leave Boban out of our Memsie Stakes top three.
In his place we like the Gai Waterhouse-trained Sweet Idea; here’s why:
- She beat home a number of these including Messene (2nd) and Boban (4th) first-up in the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) in Sydney
- Mares have a great record in the race with seven winners since 2000 including Atlantic Jewel last year
- While 1200m is where she’s most comfortable she has won over the 1400m
- Second best win rate of the field (43%) and equal best place rate (86%)
- Another on-pace runner set to suit the slower speed as mapped out for today
Third in the Memsie is wide open for us but at an extraordinary juicy price of $21 we’re more than happy to include Happy Trails for value.
He’s a Cox Plate runner-up suited to more distance but second-up over this distance from barrier two shouldn’t be ignored completely.
To back our Memsie Stakes late mail betting tips at the best prices head over to Ladbrokes.com.au where you can bet without worry as your first fixed win Memsie bet will be refunded as a bonus $50 bet if your selection runs second!
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