On Saturday a field of weight-for-age gallopers kicks off their Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival campaigns in the 2014 P.B. Lawrence Stakes – the form guide and betting analysis for which is detailed below.
Running as Caulfield Race 8 at 4:35pm, this year’s $200,000 Group 2 Back To Caulfield P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) features 11 hopefuls with Ladbrokes.com.au markets led by last year’s winner Puissance De Lune.
Darren Weir’s one-time Melbourne Cup favourite won the race first-up 12 months ago at short odds and is again leading betting this time at a quote of $3.30 – out from $3.20.
The son of Shamardal hasn’t raced since pulling up lame following a 12th in the Cox Plate back in October.
But boasting a solid first-up record (5-3-0-0) and with class on the side of the seven-year-old, Puissance De Lune is well fancied to successfully defend the crown.
Other notable hopes include the Peter Moody-trained French import Lidari ($5) that runs well fresh, Chris Waller’s dual Group 1 winner Foreteller ($7.50) and last weekend’s Aurie’s Star Handicap third placegetter Zamorar ($8).
To help you sort the pretenders from the genuine contenders, we’ve gone over the PB Lawrence Stakes form and betting history to come up with the must know facts on the weight-for-age showdown before you place your bets at Ladbrokes.com.au where you’ll get a bonus refund bet up to $50 if your horse runs second!
2014 PB Lawrence Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s winner Puissance De Lune won first-up from barrier six (of eight) with Glen Boss aboard
- #2 Puissance De Lune ($3.30) is back again this year drawn in gate four with Brad Rawiller riding as the eighth horse to attempt to win successive editions of the race since 2000
- The only other dual winner was My Peak who did so on non-consecutive years (1960 and 1962)
- Two of the seven defending champs to try and win again the next year in the past 14 years finished second with Predatory Pricer and Le Zagaletta while Second Effort (2012) ran third last year
- Last year’s winning barrier (6) on Saturday belongs to roughie shot #7 Excluded ($61)
- Eight of the 11 gallopers this year are first-up and of those with the best resuming records are #2 Puissance De Lune (5-3-0-0), #5 Lidari (6-3-1-0) and #6 Zamorar (6-2-2-0)
- Running first-up has been the most successful lead-up form to the race with 11 horses since 1994, including six of the past nine winners, to win off a spell
- The only last start winner in the race is #9 Spillway (Group 3 JRA Plate, 2000m, Randwick, 26/04/2014)
- Caulfield is currently in the Slow range and the track could be a wet one for the weekend
- Horses with solid Slow track form then are: #1 Foreteller (7-2-0-0), #2 Puissance De Lune (4-1-1-0), #5 Lidari (5-2-0-0), #6 Zamorar (6-1-4-1) and #10 Gig (5-0-2-2)
- The highest win rate of the field belongs to #2 Puissance De Lune (44%) followed by: #3 Brambles (38%), #8 Star Rolling (36%), #5 Lidari (35%), #7 Excluded (35%) and #9 Spillway (31%)
- The best place rate also belongs to #2 Puissance De Lune (72%) followed by: #6 Zamorar (70%), #3 Brambles (69%), #9 Spillway (62%), #5 Lidari (60%), #4 Kincaple (58%) and #10 Gig (58%)
- Horses with the best records at the track are: #1 Foreteller (7-2-1-0), #2 Puissance De Lune (2-1-0-0), #5 Lidari (2-1-0-0), #6 Zamorar (7-1-3-1) and #10 Gig (6-0-5-0)
- Horses with the best form over the distance are: #5 Lidari (5-2-0-1), #1 Foreteller (6-1-1-1), #2 Puissance De Lune (1-1-0-0), #7 Excluded (3-1-0-0) and #10 Gig (9-1-3-2)
- Two horses have won over the track & distance before with #2 Puissance De Lune (1-1-0-0) and #5 Lidari (2-1-0-0)
- #10 Gig ($15) also has nice form over the track & distance with two seconds from two attempts over the 1400m at Caulfield
- Mares however have a dismal record with no wins since the 90s, the last was Inaflury (1999) following on from another female winner after Vonanne won in 1998
- #11 Let’s Make Adeal ($31) is the other mare out to break the hoodoo in 2014
- The last double-figure chance to win was Pompeii Ruler ($21 in 2006)
- Since then three favourites have saluted with Apace Cat ($2.10), Shoot Out ($3) and Puissance De Lune ($3.50)
- Whobegotyou also started short at $2.45 in 2011 and beat the odds-on favourite Lights Of Heaven
It is important to note that historically the PB Lawrence Stakes winner isn’t the one to back in the upcoming spring majors.
In fact the past seven winners – Apache Cat, Light Fantastic, Predatory Pricer, Shoot Out, Whobegotyou, Second Effort and Puissance De Lune – didn’t win again that campaign.
So while the bookies may firm the price of Saturday’s victor in the 2014 Melbourne Cup markets, no horse has actually achieved the Lawrence Stakes – Melbourne Cup double.
In regards to the Caulfield Cup form line, the only horse to back up from a Lawrence Stakes win and take out the Caulfield Cup since 1949 was Sydeston (1990).
For Cox Plate hopes the stats are only slightly kinder with So Called (1978) the most recent of the three Lawrence Stakes – Cox Plate double winners in a single season.
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider PB Lawrence Stakes betting tips up before Saturday.
In the meantime back your early selections online now at Ladbrokes.com.au with confidence knowing if they are second past the post you’ll get your money back as a bonus bet up to $50!