This weekend the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival kicks off at Doomben Racecourse with 2014 BTC Cup Day, our insider form guide and betting preview for the day’s marquee race detailed below.
Heading the exciting eight race program is Race 7 at 3:40pm (AEST) – the $400,000 Group 1 Bunderberg Distilling Co. BTC Cup (1200m).
Only eight final acceptances were taken for this year’s BTC Cup field, but the class is there for all to enjoy with five individual Group 1 winners in the mix.
Red hot favourite in BTC Cup betting at a short $2.20 is Rob Heathcote’s triple Group 1 winning champion Buffering after their first win of the year, and their first Brisbane Group 1 trophy.
The six-year-old son of Mossman finally saluted in the Manikato Stakes during the spring after 17 previous runs at the highest level, then went on to also take out the VRC Sprint at Flemington and the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth.
Their last start was in the mud at Randwick when third in the TJ Smith Stakes, a performance the bookies are tipping them to improve on back home in Brisbane where they race for the first time since joining the Group 1 winners’ list.
Punters are then having a hard time separating the rest of the runners with all but two also under double figures to win.
Following Buffering in the BTC Cup odds are the likes of William Reid Stakes champ Spirit Of Boom ($6.50) and the Gerald Ryan-trained mare Snitzerland ($7.50) who will blow right out in her price to win if the rain comes in Brisbane ahead of Saturday.
But are these top three the ones to lock into the BTC Cup trifecta tips?
Below we take a look at the full BTC Cup field, form guide and betting history to try and uncover some hidden facts and value for the feature.
2014 BTC Cup Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s BTC Cup winner was the Anthony Cummings-trained Sydney visitor Your Song who won by five lengths first-up from barrier 5 (of 11) with Peter Robl aboard
- This year the interstate chances are #4 Tiger Tees (Joe Pride), #5 Hot Snitzel (Gerald Ryan), #6 Famous Seamus (Noel Mayfield-Smith), #7 Snitzerland (Gerald Ryan) and #8 Peron (John Thompson)
- No horse is resuming this year with all having had a previous run for the season
- There are however two last start winners in the mix with #3 Temple Of Boom (Group 2 Victory Stakes, 1200m, Eagle Farm, 26/04/2014) and #5 Hot Snitzel (Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes, 1200m, Randwick, 26/04/2014)
- Along with the upset winner Temple Of Boom who broke a two year drought to win at 40-1 the other chances coming via the Victory Stakes this year are Spirit Of Boom (2nd) and Snitzerland (3rd), Famous Seamus (5th)
- The most telling lead-up race to the BTC Cup in the last decade meanwhile has been Sydney’s TJ Smith Stakes producing three winners; Black Caviar (2011) and Apache Cat (2008) both completed the double while Thorn Park (2004) ran sixth in Sydney before their Brisbane victory
- This year BTC Cup hopes coming via the TJ Smith Stakes are Buffering (3rd), Tiger Tees (4th), Famous Seamus (11th) and Snitzerland (12th)
- A total of eight of the past 10 BTC Cup winners had their final lead-up in Sydney which is a bad omen for those coming off Brisbane form from the Victor Stakes
- Last year’s winning barrier (5) this year belongs to #8 Peron ($26) who is the roughie of the field after an upset; the barrier the most successful in recent years with 5 winners since 1983
- The other most successful barriers with three winners each in that time are then 1, 4 and 9; with only eight runners this year the horses jumping from two of those gates on Saturday are the rails-drawn #3 Temple Of Boom ($8) and #6 Famous Seamus ($19) in four
- This year’s favourite is #1 Buffering ($2.20) who has a hoodoo to overcome with only four of the past 15 BTC Cup betting favourites saluting, and only two in the past 10 years
- Female gallopers have a poor BTC Cup record with only four mares beating home the boys since 1983; two mares Black Caviar (2011) and Gee I Jane (2006) have won in the past 10 years, and only one filly has won in the past 30 years with Sea Siren (2012)
- This year the girls are represented by #7 Snitzerland ($7.50) and #8 Peron ($26)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #8 Peron (50%) followed by#4 Tiger Tees (42%), #7 Snitzerland and #1 Buffering (38%)
- The best Place Percentage belongs to #1 Buffering (75%) and #8 Peron(75%) followed by #7 Snitzerland (70%), #4 Tiger Tees (62%), #2 Spirit Of Boom (55%), #6 Famous Seamus (54%) and #5 Hot Snitzel (52%)
- Previous winners at Doomben are: #1 Buffering (8-3-1-3), #8 Peron (3-2-0-1) and #4 Tiger Tees (1-1-0-0)
- The best over the distance (1200m) are: #1 Buffering (26-10-6-4), #4 Tiger Tees (9-3-0-1), #5 Hot Snitzel (14-5-3-1), #7 Snitzerland (13-5-1-1), #6 Famous Seamus (13-3-1-3) and #8 Peron (4-2-1-0)
- The only previous winners over the Track & Distance is then #1 Buffering (4-2-0-2)
- Rain is predicted for Brisbane before the BTC Cup runs so a Heavy track is likely and the best in the wet are: # 1 Buffering (5-2-1-1), #3 Temple Of Boom (4-2-0-0), #4 Tiger Tees (3-1-1-0) and #6 Famous Seamus (2-1-0-0)
Bookmark us here at Races.com.au to view our insider BTC Cup betting tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime get your account open at Ladbrokes.com.au to get Best Tote or SP + 20% on your winnings for both the BTC Cup and Adelaide’s The Goodwood this Saturday!