Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This weekend the country’s major race runs in Adelaide with the South Australian Derby 2014 lighting up Morphettville Racecourse, the Races.com.au team’s tips on the three-year-olds’ classic found below.
A full field of 16 lines up in this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Sportingbet South Australian Derby (2500m) set to run as Race 8 at 3:40pm (local time).
Easing favourite in the South Australian Derby odds is the Gai Waterhouse-trained Order Of The Sun who the punters can now find at $4 through Ladbrokes.com.au.
The progressive Encosta De Lago colt was in Melbourne last time out improving on their below par Sydney form this season to win their fourth race from nine career runs with a huge seven length VRC St Ledger (2800m) victory at Flemington.
They’ll now drop back in distance for the SA Derby but the punters have dropped off them to win with rain set to fall again in Adelaide and Order Of The Sun better on top of the ground.
The other single figure chances in the South Australian Derby betting markets are then Galilee Series Final winner Bring Something ($4.80), rails-drawn filly Scratchy Bottom ($7.50) and last weekend’s Chairman’s Stakes winner Gamblin’ Guru ($9).
So are these top fancies the ones to lock into your South Australian Derby win and exotic bets?
Or is there value to be found further down the markets from a double figure chance such as the Richard Jolly-trained Kushadasi ($10), VRC St Ledger runner-up Honey Steel’s Gold ($18) or even Mick Price’s roughie More Rewarding ($51) for who some money is starting to come after their VRC St Ledger fourth.
#1 Gamblin’ Guru ($9)
Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas’ New Approach gelding has been on the drift since SA Derby betting opened but think they represent awesome value and can get the job done for the locals this year. They’ve won two on the trot here winning the Port Adelaide Guineas before their narrow Group 3 win here over 2000m last weekend. Have to handle a seven day turnaround but that just means the momentum hasn’t dropped off. Also step up in distance but handled 2200m for their Geelong Classic win last season so shouldn’t be a problem. Would be a shorter odds on a Heavy track but can handle all types of ground, love this course and the outside barrier statistically is one of the best so ignore that.
#3 Kushadasi ($10)
Another top chance at a good price. Really loving the local hopes in the Derby this season and think this Richard Jolly-trained Choisir gelding can improve on their fourth in the Chairman’s and run in the top two here. Tipping the same quinella as the Port Adelaide where they ran second to Gamblin’ Guru on the back of back-to-back March wins here over the mile. On the improve, four wins from seven at thet rack, ultra consistent boasting the highest Win & Place rate of the field (78%), if they handle the distance are a great chance from barrier three.
#16 Scratchy Bottom ($7.50)
Early market mover who shortened dramatically in the markets this week, Michael Kent’s Sebring filly is the best fancied of the females to take on the boys and she’ll come close is our guess. She took them on in the Group 2 Alister Clark at Moonee Valley two back and ran three and a half away fifth before improving in her Morphettville debut last weekend when a nice third, only a quarter length off the winner May’s Dream in the Schweppes Oaks (2000m) here. Gets the inside run from barrier one which produced last year’s winner Escado and three others before them since 1983 so if stays out of trouble is a big chance.
Whether you’re backing or sacking our SA Derby tips this year make sure you place your bets online at Ladbrokes.com.au who are offering an exclusive Best Tote or SP + 20% Bonus market on the race!
*All odd quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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