Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Adelaide race fans are treated to a double shot of Group 1 racing this weekend at Morphettville including the Schweppes Australasian Oaks 2014, a detailed form analysis and betting tips for which are detailed below.
Set to run as Race 6 on Saturday, this year’s $400,000 Group 1 Schweppes Oaks (2000m) features a full field of 16 starters plus two emergencies lying in wait.
Favourite of those three-year-old fillies ready to face off is the Robbie Griffiths-trained Girl In Flight ($4) coming off a win in the Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m) win here from April 12.
Close second pick at $4.20 is then May’s Dream, the top two fancies drawn wide in gates 13 and 15 respectively.
Darren Weir’s New Approach filly May’s Dream won at Moonee Valley two back before travelling to South Australia for her third behind Girl In Flight, who she’ll be out to turn the tables on this weekend, in the Auraria.
The only other single figure Schweppes Oaks chance at $6.50 is then another interstate raider, Mick Kent’s Sebring filly Scratchy Bottom coming via a fifth in the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley from mid-March.
So are these three the ones to tip in your Schweppes Australasian Oaks trifecta?
Or should punters be looking further down the Oaks odds for a double figure upset from the likes of Auraria runner-up In Masquerade ($10), the David Hayes-trained Star Fashion ($11) last seen running fourth in the Port Adelaide Guineas or the nicely-drawn Lady Tatia ($17) for Peter Moody in gate two.
2014 Schweppes Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Schweppes Oaks winner was the Phillip Stokes-trained Maybe Discreet who came off a second in the Group 3 Auraria (Schweppervescence Stakes) and jumped out wide from barrier 14 (of 16) with Dom Tourneur in the saddle
- Stokes is without a runner this year but Tourneur will shoot for another win with #10 Lady Tatia ($17)
- Last year’s winning gate 14 will on Saturday was drawn by #3 Every Faith but if the two emergencies come out it will be #13 Akagera (Peter Moody) who gets the gate
- #4 Star Fashion has drawn barrier six this year but #6 Scratchy Bottom (7) will get it if the spares come out
- Fillies coming via a run in the Auraria this year meanwhile are the winner Girl In Flight, In Masquerade (2nd), May’s Dream (3rd), Perfect Company (4th), Every Faith (5th), Rasa Lila (7th), Quayside (8th), Love The Rock (10th) and Atatood (11th)
- Favourites have a 50% strike rate in the Oaks over the past decade; this year #2 Girl In Flight ($4) will look to keep the good run of the punters’ picks going
It also bodes well to have won your last start with four of the past six Australasian Oaks winners having come off a win; favourite #2 Girl In Flight is the only last start winner in the mix this weekend having won the Schweppervescence which has produced the past two Oaks champs
2014 Schweppes Oaks Tip
1st – #2 Girl In Flight ($4)
2nd – #5 In Masquerade ($10)
3rd – #4 Star Fashion ($11)
Race favourite Girl In Flight looks the one to stick with even from the wide gate, the top fancies having a top strike rate in the race. Last start winners are also the go and she beat many of these last time out in the Group 3 that has produced the past two Australasian Oaks winners.
In Masquerade was second last time out to the favourite here and gets a gun gate with Luke Nolen riding for the rematch while the form on the David Hayes-trained Star Fashion shows a good fourth behind Gamblin’ Guru in the Port Adeladie Guineas here last time out.
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2014 Schweppes Australasian Oaks Form Guide
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