Sydney Cup 2014 Form Guide & Betting Analysis

April 17, 2014

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Sydney Cup 2014 Form Guide & Betting Analysis

The Offer

Chairman's winner and known mudlark The Offer looks the one to beat in the 2014 Sydney Cup. Photo: Steve Hart.

insider form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.

There are four Group 1s on the Randwick race card this weekend, including the time-honoured $1 million Group 1 Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m) running as Race 7 at 3:45pm (AEST).

There are 17 stayers in the Sydney Cup field this year, the current favourite of which is The Offer at $3.10.

For punters betting online at Ladbrokes.com.au, this Gai Waterhouse-trained up-and-comer can be had at a juicy $4 up to $50!

The Montjeu five-year-old has had just the 16 starts making them lightly raced for their age, 10 of those being on Aussie soil.

The import has enjoyed three wins down under including their last two on the trot.

After winning the Ballarat Cup by three and a half lengths at the end of last prep, The Offer enjoyed their breakthrough Group win down under on March 29 with another commanding victory this time in the NE Manion Cup (2400m) in the mud at Rosehill.

They relished another Heavy (9) track and extra distance then last weekend winning the Group 2 Chairman’s Handicap (2600m) at Randwick.

The Offer returns to the track, this time going up to the two miles for a shot at the Sydney Cup which is likely to be run rain affected ground once more.

There are then just two other Sydney Cup hopes under double figures to win this year with Auckland Cup winner Who Shot Thebarman ($6) making their Australian debut and in-form Galileo six-year-old Sertorius ($9) coming via a fourth in the Chairman’s behind Saturday’s top fancy.

The rest of the field can then be had at double figures including market easer Voleuse De Coeurs ($10) a six length winner of last year’s Irish St Leger, the Chris Waller-trained Brigantin ($11) and Peter Snowden’s Australian Derby runner-up Tupac Amaru ($13) for who steady money is coming in.

But are the Sydney Cup betting markets to be trusted? Or is there an upset on the cards?

To answer that we’ve gone over the entire Sydney Cup field and form guide to come up with the below must know facts on the classic.

2014 Sydney Cup Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Sydney Cup winner was the Robert Hickmott-trained Mourayan who came via a fourth in the Chairman’s Handicap, jumped from gate 2 (of 10) with Hugh Bowman aboard carrying 58kg
  • Hickmott is without a runner this year but last year’s winning jockey Bowman will look to go back-to-back aboard roughie shot #16 Like A Carousel ($81)
  • Last year’s winning barrier (2) this year belongs to another roughie #15 Angola ($61), the gate producing four Sydney Cup winners since 1983 making it the second most successful gate in the two mile feature
  • The most successful Sydney Cup barrier in that time has been eight producing eight winners; barrier eight this year belongs to the favourite #4 The Offer ($3.10) to be ridden by Tommy Berry who has his third Sydney Cup ride
  • Horses coming via the Chairman’s this year are the winner #4 The Offer (1st) along with #12 Tremec (2nd), #11 Hippopus (3rd), #2 Sertorius (4th), #13 Desert Jeuney (5th), #10 Opinion (6th) and #16 Like A Carousel (7th)
  • #4 The Offer ($3.10) is out to become the eighth Chairman’s Handicap – Sydney Cup double winner since 1986 joining Jessicabeel (2010), No Wine No Song (2008), Henderson Bay (2002), Linesman (1997), King Aussie (1990), Major Drive (1987) and Marooned (1986)
  • Along with #4 The Offer (Group 2 Chairman’s Handicap, 2600m, Randwick, 12/04/2014) the only other last start winner in the Sydney Cup field this year is then #3 Who Shot Thebarman (Group 1 Auckland Cup, 3200m, Ellerslie, NZ, 05/03/2014)
  • Heading the Sydney Cup odds #4 The Offer is out to become the sixth favourite in the past 11 years to win; four of the other Sydney Cup favourites in that time failed to place
  • Only two three-year-olds have won the Sydney Cup since 1983 with Tie The Knot (1998) and Veloso (1983); this year market mover #7 Tupac Amaru ($13) is out to be the next
  • Mares also have an unremarkable record with just two mares winning in the past 10 years with Makybe Diva (2004) and Jessicabeel (2010); mares in the mix this year are #1 Voleuse de Coeurs ($10), #6 Epingle ($15), #8 Gondokoro ($81) and #9 Let’s Make Adeal ($26)
  • The horse with the highest Win Rate is #3 Who Shot Thebarman (67%) followed by #13 Desert Jeuney (33%), #1 Voleuse de Coerus (31%), #4 The Offer (31%) and #2 Sertorius (30%)
  • The best Place Percentage then belongs to #3 Who Shot Thebarman (89%) followed by #2 Sertorius (70%), #6 Epingle (65%), #1 Voleuse de Coeurs (63%), #4 The Offer (63% and #7 Tupac Amaru (60%)
  • Horses who have seen the two miles (3200m) are: #1 Voleuse de Coeurs (3-2-0-0), #3 Who Shot Thebarman (1-1-0-0), #14 Macedonian (6-1-0-1), #16 Like A Carousel (2-0-1-0) and #17 Fifth Column (1-0-1-0)
  • Those with the best Randwick track record are: #4 The Offer (4-1-0-2), #12 Tremec (5-1-1-0), #7 Tupac Amaru (2-0-1-0) and #10 Opinion (2-0-1-0)
  • Randwick is likely to be a mud track on the weekend so the horses with the best Heavy track record are: #4 The Offer (5-4-1-0), #17 Fifth Column (3-2-0-0), #1 Voleuse de Coeurs (3-1-1-0), #2 Sertorius (4-1-0-0), #3 Who Shot Thebarman (2-1-0-0), #5 Brigantin (5-1-0-0), #6 Epingle (2-1-0-1), #7 Tupac Amaru (3-1-2-0), #12 Tremec (4-1-1-1) and #14 Macedonian (3-1-0-1)

Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our Sydney Cup betting tips to be published shortly.

Already have your selections and want to lock them in at the best prices? Then visit our preferred online bookie Ladbrokes.com.au who for this Easter long weekend only are upping their first deposit bonus for new customers to a $300 bonus bet on the house!

2014 Sydney Cup Field & Form Guide

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