Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
A talented line-up of 15 staying fillies are engaged to face off in this Saturday’s 2014 Australian Oaks field running as one of four Group 1 features on Royal Randwick’s Sydney Cup Day program.
Due to jump at 3:05pm (AEST) as Race 6, this year’s $1 million Group 1 Seven News Australian Oaks (2400m) is shaping up as a top showdown with the current markets led by Lucia Valentina.
Drawn in gate two with Hugh Bowman to ride, the Kris Lees-trained daughter of Savabeel pays $2.50 in Australian Oaks betting at Ladbrokes.com.au after her smart win in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) last start.
She goes up to the mile and a half for the first time here but is tipped to relish the distance, and the likely wet conditions after thriving on a Heavy (8) at Rosehill for the Vinery.
Only two of her 13 rivals join Lucia Valentina under double figures in the Australian Oaks betting markets with the Guy Walter-trained Bernardini filly Zanbagh ($6) coming off a fifth in the Vinery and New Zealand raider Rising Romance ($6.50).
Two back Ekraar filly Rising Romance ran second to Puccini in the Group 1 NZ Derby (2400m) before dropping back to the 2000m in the Vinery for her Australian race debut.
With a run on Aussie soil now behind her, and stepping back up to the 2400m, Rising Romance is a definite danger of upsetting the locals this weekend.
Also in the mix at more generous prices for an Australian Oaks upset are then the likes of Suavito ($10) with the outside barrier and Missvonn ($16).
That’s what the bookies are saying, but what about the Australian Oaks form guide and betting history?
2014 Australian Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Australian Oaks winner was the Chris Waller-trained Royal Descent who came off a win in the Adrian Knox Stakes, jumped from gate nine (of 10) and was ridden by Nash Rawiller
- Waller is without representation in the Oaks this year but Rawiller will look to go back-to-back partnering New Zealand Oaks winner #4 Miss Mossman ($26), out to atone for her dead last in the Vinery, from barrier 13
- Last year’s winning barrier (9) then belongs to the in-form Kiwi #7 Miss Selby ($17), coming off a second to Miss Mossman in the NZ Oaks, to be ridden by Glen Boss; barrier nine has produced three Oaks winners since 1983
- In that time the most successful barriers have been one and five with five wins a piece; this year the fillies drawn in those gates are #11 Amanpour (1) and #15 Blue Eyes (5)
- Boss is also the most successful Australian Oaks jockey in recent history with three wins from 12 rides
- Fillies coming via last weekend’s Adrian Knox Stakes this year, which has produced three of the past 10 Australian Oaks winners, are then #12 Missvonn (2nd), #11 Amanpour (5th), #10 Role Model (8th) and #15 Blue Eyes (10th)
- The most successful Australian Oaks lead-up in the past 10 years however has been the Vinery Stud Stakes, five of the Vinery winners going onto the Oaks with two – Heavenly Glow (2008) and Serenade Rose (2006) – taking out the double
- This year’s Vinery Stud Stakes winner #2 Lucia Valentina ($2.50) is out to be the next
- Also coming via the Vinery Stud are then #6 Forever Loved (3rd), #3 Rising Romance (4th), #1 Zanbagh (5th), #12 Missvonn (6th), #5 Suavito (7th), #9 Interspersed (8th), #8 Casino Dancer (12th) and #4 Miss Mossman (16th) who failed to beat home any of her rivals in her first run down under
- Favourites have a poor record in the Oaks with only three of the past 14 saluting and four in the past 10 years failing to place; this year’s favourite out to overcome the hoodoo is #2 Lucia Valentina ($2.50)
- The last favourite to win however was only two years back with Streama (2012) taking it out as the 2/5F
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #2 Lucia Valentina (38%) followed by #3 Rising Romance (33%), #9 Interspersed (33%), #6 Forever Loved (29%) and #7 Miss Selby (29%)
- The best Place Percentage belongs to #7 Miss Selby (100%) followed by #5 Suavito (88%), #3 Rising Romance (67%), #10 Role Model (67%), #2 Lucia Valentina (63%), #11 Amanpour (60%) and #6 Forever Loved (57%)
- The only fillies to see the distance (2400m) previously arethe three New Zealand visitors: #4 Miss Mossman (1-1-0-0), #3 Rising Romance (1-0-1-0) and #7 Miss Selby (1-0-1-0)
- None have won at the track but two have placed at Randwick with: #8 Casino Dancer (2-0-1-0) and #12 Missvonn (1-0-1-0)
- In the wet the fillies to back with the top Heavy track records are: #1 Zanbagh (2-1-0-0), #2 Lucia Valentina (1-1-0-0), #8 Casino Dancer (3-0-2-0), #10 Role Model (2-0-1-0), #12 Missvonn (2-0-1-0), #14 Cuban Star (1-0-1-0), #6 Forever Loved (1-0-0-1) and #11 Amanpour (3-0-0-1)
Races.com.au will be publishing their exclusive Australian Oaks tips on Friday so make sure you stay tuned.
In the meantime, now is the time to head to Ladbrokes.com.au and open your new account as they’re offering a $300 match bonus bet this Easter long weekend only!
2014 Australian Oaks Field & Form Guide
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