This weekend in Sydney a top field of three-year-olds will face off in the Rosehill Guineas 2014, the Races.com.au team’s detailed form guide analysis and betting preview for which are detailed below.
Set to run as Rosehill Race 8 at 4:40pm (AEST), this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) features a crack field of a just below capacity 17 starters.
It’s a tight Rosehill Guineas betting battle this year too with two top youngsters currently sharing co-favouritism at $5.
The first is Kiwi raider Puccini (barrier two) after their fourth win on the trot, while last start Randwick Guineas winner Dissident (barrier seven) is their biggest danger after firming in the markets.
Encosta De Lago colt Puccini is yet to race down under but their lead-up form back home has been outstanding including a last start win in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby (2400m).
The Peter Moody-trained Dissident meanwhile has won two on the trot coming into this, their Randwick Guineas triumph last time out historically a good indicator of victory in the Rosehill edition.
Also at single figures are Cox Plate champ Shamus Award ($6.50) with the rails run from barrier one as they look to add a third Group 1 win to their name having also taken out the Australian Guineas this time in and Queensland visitor Teronado ($8) coming via a Randwick Guineas fourth.
So are these top four the ones to lock into all your Rosehill Guineas bets on the weekend?
Or is there an upset Rosehill Guineas result on the cards from a longer priced chance such as Murray Baker’s Group 1 winning Kiwi Atlante ($15) looking to emulate their Rosehill Guineas winning stable mate It’s A Dundeel from 12 months ago, or even Moody’s other runner Cadillac Mountain ($21) from out wide?
Having gone over the Rosehill Guineas form guide and betting history below are our favourite must know facts on the race so you can back a winner at Ladbrokes.com.au!
2014 Rosehill Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Rosehill Guineas winner was the Murray Baker-trained It’s A Dundeel who came off a win in the Randwick Guineas, jumped from barrier three (of eight) and was ridden by James McDonald
- This year Baker is back seeking another win in the race with #7 Atlante ($15) and #15 Show The World ($41)
- Last year’s winning jockey McDonald has the ride meanwhile on #5 Savvy Nature ($15) for Sydney horseman John O’Shea
- #9 Teronado ($8) will jump from last year’s winning barrier three with Craig Newitt aboard; a gate that has produced three winners in the past 30 years
- The most successful Rosehill Guineas barrier since 1983 meanwhile is eight with seven winners followed by five with six winners which on Saturday belong to #10 Hooked ($31) and #11 Order Of The Sun ($21) respectively
- This year’s Randwick Guineas winner out to complete the same double It’s A Dundeel managed last autumn is #2 Dissident ($5)
- The Rosehill Guineas winner has also come from the Randwick (or Canterbury) Guineas seven times at their previous start in the last 10 years
- Also coming via the Randwick Guineas are the likes of #9 Teronado (4th), #10 Hooked (5th), #7 Atlante (6th), #5 Savvy Nature (7th), #3 Criterion (8th), #13 Tupac Amaru (11th) and #15 Show The World (12th)
- Six of the past 12 Rosehill Guineas champions came off a last-start win
- The other last start winners in the mix are then #4 Puccini (Group 1 New Zealand Derby, 2400m, Ellerslie, NZ, 01/03/2014) and #16 Mr One Eleven (BM63 Handicap, 2100m, Hawkesbury, 27/02/2014)
- The horse with the highest Win Rate is #11 Order Of The Sun (50%) followed by #15 Show The World (40%), #7 Atlante (43%), #8 Surge Ahead (43%), #4 Puccini (36%), #14 Cadillac Mountain (33%), #16 Mr One Eleven (33%) and #17 Eyre Square (33%)
- The highest Place Rate then belongs to #5 Savvy Nature (80%) and #15 Show The World (80%) followed by #1 Shamus Award (77%), #2 Dissident (73%) and #7 Atlante (71%)
- There are only two with a previous Rosehill win: #2 Dissident (4-1-3-0) and #3 Criterion (7-2-1-1)
- Of those to see the distance (2000m) those with a victory are #1 Shamus Award (2-1-0-0), #3 Puccini (1-1-0-0), #5 Savvy Nature (2-1-0-1) and #14 Cadillac Mountain (3-1-1-0)
- Only three favourites in the past 30 years have won the Rosehill Guineas however two of those were in the past three years with It’s A Dundeel (2013) and Jimmy Choux (2011); this year the favourites are #2 Dissident and #4 Puccini at $5
- It’s A Dundeel and Jimmy Choux were both New Zealand raiders giving hope to Baker’s duo in 2014
- Fillies have a poor record in the Rosehill Guineas with just two since 1983 being successful: Spirit Of Kingston (1985) and Riverina Charm (1989); no fillies are in the race this year
Remember you can enjoy a stress free punt on the Rosehill Guineas on Saturday at Ladbrokes.com.au as they’re offering you a money back bonus bet special if your horse runs second, third or fourth to the winner in the big one!