Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday a star-studded field of 15 sprinters will face off at Flemington Racecourse in the 2014 Newmarket Handicap, a full form guide and preview for which are detailed below.
Scheduled as Flemington Race 6 at 3:20pm (AEST), this year’s $1 million Group 1 Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m) is shaping up as a close showdown between some of the country’s best speedsters.
In the latest Newmarket Handicap odds there are two horses sharing top spot in the markets at $4.60.
The first is market mover Shamexpress in a gun barrier three draw with Melbourne Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver in the saddle.
The other is then Mick Price’s super smart mare Samaready, four length winner of the Moir Stakes in the spring, in barrier nine with Craig Newitt riding – both favourites allocated 56kg.
Next best in betting is one time favourite Lankan Rupee who has drifted out to $5, Chad Schofield’s mount to carry 56.5kg from an outside barrier 13 draw.
But are the top three single figure chances really the ones to beat?
Below we take a look at the full Newmarket Handicap 2014 field, form and betting history to see if there could be value outside the dominant trio from the likes of flying top-weight Moment Of Change ($10) or 52.5kg lightweight Knoydart ($11) who hasn’t been without their backers for this.
2014 Newmarket Handicap Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Newmarket Handicap winner was the Danny O’Brien-trained Shamexpress who came off a sixth in the Lightning Stakes, jumped from barrier 10 of 13 with Craig Newitt aboard and carried just 51.5kg
- #4 Shamexpress ($4.60) is back to defend their title this year with Damien Oliver taking over for Newitt, their lead-up form is better with a Lightning Stakes second but they go up to 56kg
- Oliver is the most successful Newmarket Handicap jockey in the past 31 years with three victories from 19 starts
- Last year’s winning hoop Newitt meanwhile will seek back-to-back wins with co-favourite #3 Samaready ($4.60) who also comes via the Lightning Stakes having run a brave third
- Favourites have a great recent record winning six of the past 10 editions making Shamexpress and Samaready worth a definite look
- Last year’s winning barrier (10) this year belongs to $81 roughie #7 General Truce, the barrier producing just the one winner since 1983
- Wide barriers seem of little concern in the race too with five of the past eight winners jumping from double digit gates
- The most successful Newmarket Handicap barrier meanwhile in recent history is gate seven with five winners in the past 31 years
- This year barrier 7 belongs to #1 Moment Of Change ($10)
- Other Newmarket Handicap hopes coming out of the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) from February 15 then include #8 Pago Rock (4th), #9 Unpretentious (5th) and #14 Bernabeu (14th)
- There are then two last start winners in the mix with #1 Moment Of Change (Group 1 Futurity Stakes, 1400m, Caulfield, 22/02/2014) and #2 Lankan Rupee (Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, 1100m, Caulfield, 22/02/2014)
- This is good form for both horses as nine of the past 10 Newmarket Handicap winners had their final lead-up in a Group 1 race
- The form is even better for #2 Lankan Rupee ($5) as the Oakleigh Plate winner as four Newmarket Handicap winners have come via that race in the past 10 years with Wanted (4th), Scenic Blast (5th), Weekend Hussler (1st) and Takeover Target (3rd) in their respective years
- The horse boasting the highest Win Rate is #3 Samaready (60%) followed by the consistent #2 Lankan Rupee (50%)
- The best Place Rate then belongs to #10 Knoydart (80%) followed by #3 Samaready (80%), #1 Moment Of Change (76%), #2 Lankan Rupee (71%) and #12 Flamberge (71%)
- At Flemington the horses with the best track record are #2 Lankan Rupee (4-1-1-0), #3 Samaready (2-1-0-1), #4 Shamexpress (7-2-2-1), #7 General Truce (11-4-0-2) and #12 Flamberge (5-3-1-0)
- Those with the top stats over the distance (1200m) are then #3 Samaready (5-3-0-1), #5 Fontelina (7-3-0-0), #8 Pago Rock (9-3-1-1-), #1 Moment Of Change (10-2-3-2), #4 Shamexpress (8-2-2-2) and #10 Knoydart (7-2-3-1)
- Previous winners at the Track & Distance to consider are #12 Flamberge (5-3-1-0), #5 Fontelina (6-2-0-0), #4 Shamexpress (4-2-1-1), #9 Unpretentious (3-1-0-1) and #13 Mister Milton (5-1-1-0)
- Three-year-olds have an imposing record in the race having won five of the past 10 editions including Shamexpress last year; there are two 3yo’s in the mix this year looking to continue the trend with #14 Bernabeu ($20) and #15 Va Pensiero ($34)
Think you’ve uncovered the Newmarket Handicap winner based on the above facts and stats?
Then head to our preferred online betting agency Ladbrokes.com.au where you’ll get your money back if your selection in the Newmarket runs second or third!
2014 Newmarket Handicap Form Guide & Field
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