Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The richest race held in Perth each year runs at Ascot Racecourse this Saturday, and below you will find the Races.com.au team’s insider Railway Stakes 2013 form guide and betting preview for the classic.
Set to run as Ascot Race 8 at 7:50pm (AEST), this year’s $1 million Group 1 Carlton Draught Railway Stakes (1600m) has drawn one of its best fields in years.
A capacity 16 starters, plus four emergencies, were accepted for this week the favourite of which is Smokin’ Joey at $4.20.
Wez Hunter’s in-form Encosta De Lago gelding is out to break their Group 1 maiden in WA after a close call back home in Melbourne last start.
Following a Group 3 Chatham Stakes (1400m) win at Flemington on November 2, they backed up just seven days later to be beaten by the barest of margins when second to Boban in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m).
That nice run over the mile boosted the Mornington-based Hunter’s confidence that his horse can be competitive in the Railway Stakes, and it seems the bookies agree.
The best fancied to defeat the favourite on Saturday are then Queensland mare Longport ($6.50) who drops back from 57kg to just 53.5kg, fellow Brisbane-trained mare Fire Up Fifi ($8.50) for Rob Heathcote and the Peter Moody-trained Plucky Belle ($8.50).
So are these top fancies the ones to beat? Or is there an upset Railway Stakes result on the cards?
To help answer that we’ve gone over the field, form guide, betting history and statistics to come up with the below must know Railway Stakes facts.
2013 Railway Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Railway Stakes winner was Mr Moet who won the race first-up from barrier four carrying 53.5kg with Daniel Staeck aboard
- #2 Mr Moet ($16) is back this year but has a few hurdles including the far outside barrier (20 into 16), the equal 58kg topweight, jockey change (Peter Hall) and they’ve been up since early September with their most recent run a fourth in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at Flemington
- Last year’s winning jockey Staeck will shoot for successive wins this year riding #7 Kerrific ($34)
- The most successful Railway Stakes jockey in the past 30 years meanwhile is Peter Harvey with 3 wins from 17 rides who is after his fourth this year with #6 Grand Nirvana ($34)
- The 2011 Railway Stakes winner #1 Luckygray (2nd to Mr Moet last year) is also back this year looking to become the next dual winner of the race
- Last year Luckygray had 58kg from barrier 10 and were second-up after a Lee Steere Stakes win; this year they have the same weight but a wider draw (17 into 13) and come off a Lee Steere fourth
- No horses are first-up this year like Mr Moet was 12 months ago
- There are however six last start winners with #3 Conservatorium (Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes, 1400m, Ascot, 09/11/2013), #7 Kerrific (Group 3 RJ Peters Stakes, 1500m, Ascot, 16/11/2013), #11 Longport (4Up Hcp, 1400m, Flemington, 09/11/2013), #13 Platinum Rocker (Group 3 Asian Beau Stakes, 1400m, Ascot, 02/11/2013), #14 Plucky Belle (Group 3 Maybe Mahal Stakes, 1400m, Flemington, 05/11/2013) and #17e Moonlight Bay (Listed Ascot Gold Cup, 1800m, Ascot, 09/11/2013)
- The best lead-up race historically has been the Lee Steere Stakes with four of the past 10 winners going onto the Railway for a win, two seconds and a fifth
- Along with this year’s winner Conservatorium ($15) the other horses coming via the Lee Steere this year are then Ranger (3rd), Luckygray (4th), Playing God (6th), Kincaple (7th), God Has Spoken (8th) and Kerrific (9th)
- #3 Conservatorium then is out to become the first Lee Steere – Railway Stakes double winner since Belle Bizarre (2006)
- Last year’s winning barrier (4) was drawn this year by #16 Talent Show ($151) but will belong to #8 Kincaple ($13) if the four emergencies come out
- The most successful Railway Stakes barrier (since 1983) with four wins meanwhile is gate eight – drawn by the first emergency #17e Moonlight Bay ($41) but belonging to either #15 Ranger (9) or #3 Conservatorium (10) depending on if any of the emergencies gain a start
- The best Win Rate of the field belongs to #13 Platinum Rocker (67%) followed by #1 Luckygray (48%), #9 Fire Up Fifi (36%), #19e Rohan (36%), #2 Mr Moet (34%) and #7 Kerrific (33%)
- The highest Place Percentage is then 83% which #13 Platinum Rocker ($13) also boasts followed by #20e Elite Belle (77%), #19e Rohan (64%), #2 Mr Moet (63%), #7 Kerrific (62%), #9 Fire Up Fifi (61%), #8 Kincaple (60%) and #15 Ranger (59%)
- At the track the horses with the best record are #1 Luckygray (13-8-2-0), #2 Mr Moet (11-6-3-1), #5 Playing God (18-7-3-1), #7 Kerrific (17-6-2-3), #19e Rohan (11-3-1-3) and #13 Platinum Rocker (4-2-0-1)
- Over the distance the horses with the best mile records are then #10 Mutual Trust (10-3-1-0), #18e Angel Of Mercy (2-2-0-0), #20e Elite Belle (2-2-0-0), #1 Luckygray (4-2-1-0), #2 Mr Moet (6-2-0-1), #9 Fire Up Fifi (6-2-1-1) and #8 Kincaple (6-1-2-0),
- There are then four previous winners over the Track & Distance with #1 Luckygray (2-1-1-0), #2 Mr Moet (1-1-0-0), #5 Playing God (3-1-0-0) and #15 Ranger (4-1-0-1)
- Favourites have only a fare recent record in the Railway Stakes with two of the past 10 winning; this year’s favourite is #4 Smokin’ Joey ($4.20)
- If they don’t win, they usually don’t place either with six of the past 10 favourites failing to run top three
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Railway Stakes 2013 tips to be published later in the week.
In the meantime get behind your early picks at the hottest odds online at Ladbrokes.com.au whose $500 bonus sign-up bet offer expires Thursday afternoon!
2013 Railway Stakes Form Guide
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