Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The 2013 Sandown Guineas is set to run at Caulfield Racecourse this Saturday, its traditional home at Sandown undergoing a track renovation, and below are the Races.com.au team’s insider tips for the three-year-olds classic.
There are 11 hopefuls in the field for this year’s $350,000 Group 2 Sportingbet Sandown Guineas (1600m) which is scheduled as Race 7 at 4:10pm (AEST).
Four of the final acceptors sit at single figures in the latest Sandown Guineas odds, the shortest of which is $3.30 favourite Paximadia.
Trainer Peter Snowden has enjoyed plenty of recent success in the Sandown Guineas preparing three past winners including Tatra 12 months ago, and Paximadia looks the horse to make it a quartet this weekend.
Drawn in gate five with Kerrin McEvoy to ride the Commands colt was last seen beating a similar class field at Flemington on November 2 to win the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m), and now they get another go at the mile.
Their main dangers here look to be the lightly-raced Choisir colt Apollo’s Choice ($4.20), the Gai Waterhouse-trained Carbine third placegetter Equator ($4.40) and early market mover Best Case ($6.50).
So are these ones the horses to beat and lock into your Sandown Guineas exotics?
Or is there value to be found further down the markets?
#1 Paximadia ($3.30)
Can’t go past the deserving favourite here based on the history and their form. Snowden’s record in this race is outstanding as he’s prepared Tatra (2012), Kidnapped (2009) and Caymans (2008) for their recent wins and he looks to have another standout in Paximadia. Won the Carbine in top style last start, the same race Tatra ran second in last year, and can’t see the ones they beat there turn the tables here. Since 1999 only four Sandown Guineas winners have come via the Carbine, but three of those were Snowden’s winners so the form is right for the Darley-owned favourite. They also have a good 43% Win Rate and the best record of the lot over the distance (2-1-0-1).
#4 Best Case ($6.50)
Money is coming for Anthony Cummings’ Savabeel gelding, and we can see why. They’ve been working their way through the grades in Sydney, including a recent win last month defeating Kirramosa over the Randwick mile. They made their Victorian debut last start in the Carbine and were far from disgraced when fourth to Paximadia. Can improve on that having now had a run the opposite way of going. Right distance over the 1600m again, good gate six draw one outside the favourite and Damien Oliver rides – lots to like.
#6 Apollo’s Choice ($4.20)
Shea Eden’s Cranbourne-based colt is short in the markets but deservingly so. They won their opening two career starts in country Victoria over 1200m before a credible fourth to Dothraki in the Listed Hilton Hotel Stakes (1400m) at Flemington last Saturday. On a short back up here but should be fit and ready to step up to the mile here where their best can come out. Obviously up in class but has done nothing wrong, does need to overcome the outside alley though so that’s a query.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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