This Thursday, November 7, the third meeting of the four day Melbourne Cup Carnival brings Flemington Racecourse alive once more with the 2013 Crown Oaks to take centre stage.
After the Gai Waterhouse-trained favourite Fiorente saluted for the punters in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, all eyes will be on the top elect in this year’s $1 million Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m).
A lucrative elite level for the season’s top staying fillies, there are 10 three-year-olds facing off in Flemington Race 6 at 3:40pm (AEST) tomorrow.
Heading the current Crown Oaks betting markets at a firming $3.10 (in from $3.30) is John Sargent’s smart Alamosa filly Kirramosa.
Stepping up to group company for the first time in Australia, the now Sydney-based up-and-comer was the easy one and a quarter length winner of the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Derby Day.
She does have a previous Group 1 run under the belt however having run fourth to Recite in the Group 1 NZ Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m) in New Zealand back in March at just her second career start before being moved to Australia.
The Wakeful produced last year’s Crown Oaks winner Dear Demi who ran fourth in the lead-up race before her big win in the Group 1 five days later.
In the Wakeful Kirramosa had barrier 12 of 12 to overcome and has another wide draw coming up with the outside alley once again in the 10-horse Crown Oaks field.
She will be ridden by Nash Rawiller, who replaces Tommy Berry for the mount, Rawiller looking to atone after Waterhouse put Damien Oliver on her Melbourne Cup winner instead of him.
The next best in the Crown Oaks odds are then Guy Walter’s last start Ballarat winner by five lengths Zanbagh ($4.40) and the Darren Weir-trained May’s Dream ($5).
New Approach filly May’s Dream, to be ridden by Nicholas Hall from barrier five, has run top two in her last two runs.
The first was a brave effort behind the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) before her Wakeful second when she didn’t have quite the same finishing burst as the winner.
That’s what the bookies are saying this Crown Oaks Day, but what about the race form guide and betting history?
Below we’ve compiled a must know list of Crown Oaks form facts and historical statists so you can get behind the winner online at Ladbrokes.com.au this week!
2013 Crown Oaks Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Crown Oaks winner was the Clarry Conners-trained Dear Demi who came off a fourth in the Wakeful, jumped from barrier 12 of 15 and was ridden by Jim Cassidy
- The Wakeful Stakes is by far the best Crown Oaks form guide having produced 14 of the past 20 winners, and 18 of the past 25
- The fillies coming via the Wakeful this year are Kirramosa (1st), May’s Dream (2nd), Solicit (3rd), Arabian Gold (4th), Gypsy Diamond (5th), Every Faith (8th), Tear Gas (9th) and Melaleuca (10th)
- Of the six Crown Oaks winners in the past two decades that didn’t come via the Wakeful, none finished further back than sixth in their final run ruling out #7 Every Faith (8th), #9 Melaleuca (10th) and #10 Tear Gas (9th) this year
- Along with Wakeful Stakes winner #3 Kirramosa ($3.10) the other last start winners in the field are #6 Quayside (Benchmark 64, 1900m, Rosehill, 26/10/2013) and #8 Zanbagh (Fillies Handicap, 2000m, Ballarat, 24/10/2013)
- #3 Kirramosa is out to become the ninth filly in the past 20 years to complete the Wakeful Stakes – Crown Oaks double, the 35th in history, and the first since Brazilian Pulse (2010)
- Favourites have an awesome record in the Crown Oaks with 8 of the past 11 favourites, most recently Brazilian Pulse ($2 in 2010), saluting
- This year the favourite is #3 Kirramosa
- Only one Crown Oaks favourite in the past decade has failed to run a place
- The most successful Crown Oaks barriers (since 1983) have been two, five, seven and eight with three wins each; this year those barriers belong to #8 Zanbagh (2), #1 May’s Dream (5), #6 Quayside (7) and #4 Gypsy Diamond (8) respectively
- The most successful Crown Oaks saddlecloth numbers are one and two which 16 of the past 21 winners have worn one of; this year those numbers belong to #1 May’s Dream ($5) and #2 Arabian Gold ($13)
- The best Win Rate of the field belongs to #2 Arabian Gold (50%) followed by #3 Kirramosa (43%), #1 May’s Dream (33%), #4 Solicit (33%) and #8 Zanbagh (33%)
- Yet to finish out of the money #1 May’s Dream (100%) boasts the top Place Rate followed by #4 Solicit (83%), #2 Arabian Gold (70%) and #6 Quayside (67%)
- None of the fillies in the field have been up to 2500m Crown Oaks distance before
- #3 Kirramosa (1-1-0-0) is the only filly with a previous Flemington win; those to have placed at the track previous are then #1 May’s Dream (1-0-1-0) and #4 Solicit (2-0-0-2)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our exclusive Crown Oaks betting tips to go up shortly.
In the meantime gear up for a big Thursday on the punt by signing up with Ladbrokes.com.au now enjoying a bonus welcome bet valued up to $500 if you are a first time depositing customer!