Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
They are facing a tough Australian debut, their stablemate Fiorente is race favourite and they’ve drawn out in the carpark but does Gai Waterhouse’s other 2013 Melbourne Cup runner Tres Blue have any claims for an upset?
There are 24 stayers making up the field for this year’s $6 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) which is set to ‘stop a nation’ at 3:00pm (AEST) on Tuesday.
Melbourne Cup betting markets have been dominated by Waterhouse’s 2012 Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente who is back with 12 months Australian racing experience ready to go one better.
The European import hit headlines last year when coming with a length of the Lloyd Williams-owned winner Green Moon, back to defend their title as a $41 outsider this year, in the world’s richest handicap.
Since then they’ve had five more runs including a nice win in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) second-up this spring.
Last start they fine-tuned with a Cox Plate third and are now at $7 to win the race of the year.
Waterhouse is yet to take home a ‘Loving Trophy’ and she has two chances to do so this year.
“I’ve never had the favourite in the Melbourne Cup before,” Waterhouse told News Limited this week.
“It’s exciting for me and for Fiorente’s owners, but it’s a little nerve-racking, too.
“This is the Cup – everything is bigger.”
Her other is French import Tres Blue, a $26 chance in the latest Melbourne Cup odds.
It’s a generous price for the Anabaa Blue stallion who has great form back in Europe, but they are only young and have a lot of learning to do as Waterhouse even admits.
“Tres Blue has settled in very well since he arrived from France,” she said.
“He’s put on a lot of condition since he has been there. He is eating and drinking everything and is like a pig in mud at Werribee.
“Fiorente is a much bigger, stronger horse but he is a couple of years older than Tres Blue.
“Tres Blue is only a ‘baby’, he’s still immature but he is a natural stayer and he only has 51kg.”
What they don’t have is a winning Melbourne Cup barrier, jockey Tommy Berry with work to do from out in gate 20.
So will Tres Blue and Tommy overcome the gate and score an upset Melbourne Cup result over their better-fancied stablemate?
Or will they finish midfield or worse like their price suggests?
#23 Tres Blue – Horse Form
- Barrier: 20
- Weight: 51kg
- Jockey: Tommy Berry
- Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
- Owners: Mr G G Kolivos, Mrs D Kolivos, Kolivos Racing, Mr A Rapp, Mr H Rapp, Haras Chevotel, A & D Roberts, Mr R Mcclure, Mr P C Barnett, Round Table Racing
- Age: 4YO
- Gender: Stallion
- Breeding: by Anabaa Blue (GB) from Tres Ravi (GER)
- Career: 10-4-2-1
- Win: 40%
- Place: 70%
- Last 6: 13211
- Prize Money: $401,608
- Track: 0-0-0-0
- Distance: 0-0-0-0
- Current 2013 Melbourne Cup Odds: $26
Why Tres Blue Can Upset Fiorente in the Melbourne Cup 2013
- Biggest pro is the weight, they carry only 51kg which is a ridiculously light weight for a proven international Group 2 winner
- Come off a nice win in the Group 2 Prix de Deauville (2500m) form August, their second Group win over the distance in France
- Last start winners have won 11 of the past 19 editions of the Melbourne Cup
- Only lightly-raced so improvement is coming
- Form says four-year-olds are the ones to beat in a Melbourne Cup
- Good win (40%) and place (70%) rates but keep in mind these are inflated by the fact they’ve only had 10 starts
Why Tres Blue Won’t Win the 2013 Melbourne Cup
- Haven’t raced since August which is a long time between runs when going first-up in a two mile race
- Also yet to race over further than 2500m so need to handle the distance
- Always better form wise to have had a previous run down under before taking on the challenge of the Melbourne Cup
- Barrier 20 is possibly the worst they could have drawn (aside from 18 which is the only gate in history not to have produced a Melbourne Cup winner)
- Gai Waterhouse has never trained a Melbourne Cup winner
- Is only young and is inexperienced compared to the rest of this field so are really being tested here
- Yet to see the track or distance
Whether you’re sticking with the Melbourne Cup betting favourite Fiorente, or fancy Tres Blue at their juicy price, the odds you’re after can be found online at Ladbrokes.com.au.
Ladbrokes.com.au are offering a host of novelty Melbourne Cup betting markets plus double the fixed win odds on all the runners for your first win bet on the race!
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