Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
No matter how you like to bet, whether it be from the comprehensive lead-up form or the saddlecloth numbers, below the Races.com.au have the 2013 Melbourne Cup tips you need for the big one on Tuesday.
While our official trifecta selection on the $6.2 million Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), Flemington Race 7 at 3:00pm (AEST) on November 5, will be published on Monday below we have our statistical and superstitious tips on the world’s richest handicap.
Earlier we published the most comprehensive 2013 Melbourne Cup form guide and preview for this year’s classic, and based on the Melbourne Cup facts and stats revealed there we’ve come up with some of the best Melbourne Cup tips.
2013 Melbourne Cup Tips
Cup Lead-Up Form Tip:
#10 Fawkner ($18)
11 of the past 19 Melbourne Cup winners came off a last start victory making the seven last start winners in this year’s field the ones to consider. Combine that stat with the fact that 11 horses have completed the Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double over the years, and the Caulfield form is always rated very highly, and that leaves this year’s Caulfield Cup winner #10 Fawkner.
Cup Barrier Tip:
#8 Dandino ($11)
The spread of Melbourne Cup winners across the starting stalls for the handicap feature is wide, but there are a few barrier statistics that stand out. One is that no runner has jumped from 18, so rule out Hawkspur this year. The other is that over the years the most successful has been 11 (overall) and four (in the past 30 years). This year #16 Royal Empire is drawn in 11 and #8 Dandino has four. Both are internationals but Royal Empire hasn’t had a lead-up run in Australia whereas Dandino ran second in the Caulfield Cup.
Cup Win & Place Form Tip:
#10 Fawkner ($18)
The highest winning rate of any runner in the field is Fawkner (45%). Hot on their heels are then the fellow Lloyd Williams-owned Sea Moon (43%), English raider Brown Panther (41%) and French import Tres Blue (40%). Of those, the one that stacks up best when also looking at place percentages, led by #16 Royal Empire (85%), is Fawkner (75%).
Cup Track & Distance Tip:
#2 Green Moon ($34)
There are seven horses in the 24-runner field with a previous Flemington win to their name. The best of those track records belong to #2 Green Moon (7-3-1-0) and #10 Fawkner (9-5-2-1). There are then eight horses to have won over the two miles previously. The best of those distance records belong to #17 Voleuse de Coeurs (2-2-0-0) and #19 Simenon (6-2-1-0). It is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon however who combines plenty of Flemington experience with a proven ability over the two miles.
Cup Jockey & Trainer Tip:
#13 Super Cool ($51)
There are nine horses in the 2013 Melbourne Cup field ridden by a former Melbourne Cup winning jockey. Meanwhile, 10 in the mix are prepared by a former Melbourne Cup winning trainer. The only horses with both though are the Robert Hickmott-trained #2 Green Moon, Brett Prebble to ride again after the duo combined to win the race 12 months ago, and the Mark Kavanagh-trained #13 Super Cool out to hand jockey Corey Brown with his second ‘Loving Trophy’ after his 2009 win with Shocking. Seeing as past Melbourne Cup winners have a poor record when shooting for back-to-back victories, and the fact that Super Cool (4YO) is a better age than Green Moon (7YO) statistically speaking, the younger horse is the one to stick with.
Overall Melbourne Cup 2013 Tip:
#10 Fawkner from #2 Green Moon and #8 Dandino
Combining all the above Melbourne Cup statistical tips, the overall Melbourne Cup selections for the superstitious punters looks to be Fawkner to defeat Green Moon and Dandino, with Super Cool thrown into for the exotics.
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