Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
There has been plenty of talk in the top fancies for Tuesday’s 2013 Melbourne Cup with the likes of the perfectly-drawn favourite Fiorente and the hot-on-her-heels raider Mount Athos dominating the news, but here we take a look at some of the roughies in the pack out for an upset.
Melbourne Cup betting favourites have a far from superior record in the famous Flemington handicap with just two coming home first for the punters in the past decade.
Since the race was inaugurated in 1861 in fact, the top fancy has saluted just 32 times.
The last two favourites to win were in fact the same horse with the mighty mare Makybe Diva saluting in 2004 and 2005.
The only horse in Melbourne Cup history to win the race three times, the Lee Freedman-trained daughter of Desert King also won in 2003 when prepared by David Hall but didn’t start favourite.
The favourite that year was Mamool who was dead last (23rd of 23 runners).
It is reasonable to assume then that an upset Melbourne Cup result, like that of Viewed who won as a 40-1 shot back in 2008, is a strong possibility for the 2013 edition.
There have also been three triple-figure outsiders to score in the race’s 152-year history with: The Pearl (100-1 in 1871), Wotan (100-1 in 1936) and Old Rowley (100-1 in 1940).
In the 2013 Melbourne Cup betting markets there are currently:
- Two single-figure fancies: #6 Fiorente ($7.50) and #15 Mount Athos ($9)
- Nine more under $20: #8 Dandino ($11), #21 Verema ($12), #4 Sea Moon ($15), #17 Voleuse De Coeurs ($15), #12 Seville ($17), #18 Hawkspur ($18), #5 Brown Panther ($19), #10 Fawkner ($19), #22 Dear Demi ($19)
- Three more under $30: #19 Simenon ($20), #16 Royal Empire ($21), #23 Tres Blue ($21)
- Three more under $40: #14 Masked Marvel ($31), #7 Foreteller ($31), #2 Green Moon ($34)
- One more under $50: #1 Duanden ($41)
- Two more under $60: #13 Super Cool ($51) and #24 Ruscello ($51
- One more under $70: #3 Red Cadeaux ($61)
- Two more under $90: #9 Ethopia ($81) and #20 Ibicenco ($81)
- One over $100: #11 Mourayan ($126)
There will be enough in the papers on the 14 under $30 in the Melbourne Cup odds so here are the 10 roughies you might want to take a closer look at for value this Melbourne Cup Day.
10 Melbourne Cup 2013 Roughies
#14 Masked Marvel ($31): One of six Lloyd Williams-owned chances of going back-to-back, early form this prep (their first down under) was good with a Hill Stakes third and Craven Plate second but failed when 13th in the Cox Plate, form back in Europe suggests getting up in distance will suit as they have experience up to 3600m – Distance is right but better Williams’ hopes here
#2 Green Moon ($34): Reigning Melbourne Cup winner took it out last year as a 20-1 shot carrying 54.5kg, this time they will carry three kilos more and only a select list have done it twice, on the improve but not sure if they are that kind of champion – A champion but not a dual one
#7 Foreteller ($34): One of two for trainer Chris Waller, the distance is the query here for the first-up Makybe Diva Stakes winner over a mile, ran second in the Caulfield Stakes behind Atlantic Jewel two back and Cox Plate fourth was an eye-catching effort, if they handle the two miles could surprise – How they handle the distance is key
#1 Duanden ($41): Won the 2011 edition of this great race with 54.5kg in the closest finish in the race’s history, returned 12 months later but could only manage to run 10th with 59kg, this year they are the 58.5kg topweight and history is against them for a number of reasons so it’s going to be a big ask – Deserving of a longer price
#13 Super Cool ($51): Australian Guineas winner from the autumn, trainer Mark Kavanagh won with Shocking back in 2009 and is back to do it again with another crack four-year-old, this one was a Caulfield Stakes third then far from disgraced with fifth in the Cox Plate, barrier 13 for horse number 13 and their trainer has had this as the target for a long time, good place chance at an awesome price – Best Roughie Chance
#24 Ruscello ($51): Has been a tickle for Ed Walker’s British raider who only snuck into the field in the dying hours before cut off with their surprise Lexus Stakes win on Derby Day, must now handle the short back-up but they get in with only 50kg and they have carried up to 62kg this year to run a top three place in Europe so don’t discount – 50kg is big help
#3 Red Cadeaux ($61): Ed Dunlop-trained Cadeaux Genereux gelding was runner-up in the closest Melbourne Cup finish in history two years back, returned last year when barrier 18 (which has produced no Melbourne Cup winners) struck again when they ran eighth, won the Hong Kong Vase that December however and form since has been steady including hteir fourto to Voleuse De Coeurs in the Irish St Leger, back up to two miles, still in it – Two Miles Top Value
#20 Ibicenco ($81): Definitely one of the forgotten Melbourne Cup horses, Peter Moody’s Shirocco six-year-old won the Geelong Cup (in the wet) over 2400m last start and that form has been a nice indicator over the years, if there’s any rain expect this price to be wound right in, drop from 56.5kg to just 53kg but are out wide (17) – Any rain around and top roughie to get behind
#9 Ethopia ($81): Long time between drinks for this galloper who hasn’t seen the inside of a winners’ stall since their Australian Derby success in April last year, fourth in last year’s Cox Plate before dead last in the Melbourne Cup (injured), hit and miss ever since but Lexus Stakes fourth was a good effort and could be ready to finally live up to potential – Time could be right to shine again
#11 Mourayan ($126): Roughest of the lot, this Alhaarth eight-year-old has history against them age wise, and their lead-up hasn’t been very encouraging including their seventh in the Mackinnon on Saturday, however this horse is proven over the distance having won the Sydney Cup over the 3200m in April so can never rule out a galloper that likes the two miles – Sydney Cup replay at hot price?
Think one of these outsiders in the Melbourne Cup field can challenge the shorties in the markets?
Remember that not only are they already at a juicy price, but online at Ladbrokes.com.au you can back any horse to win the Melbourne Cup at DOUBLE their fixed win price.
That means roughie of the lot, Sydney Cup winner Mourayan can be backed at an unbelievable price of $252 to win!
So head to Ladbrokes.com.au now and lock in your favourites at a premium price that will see you win twice as much on Tuesday.
2013 Melbourne Cup Odds
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