Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday the season’s richest three-year-olds’ race will run at Flemington, the Victoria Derby 2013 betting tips and trifecta selection from the Races.com.au crew listed below.
There’s a bumper field of 16 starters, plus two emergencies, engaged for this year’s edition of the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m).
Leading the latest betting markets on Flemington Race 6 (3:00pm AEST) is the John O’Shea-trained Savvy Nature.
They pay a steady $4.60 in the Victoria Derby odds as they look to become the 15th Moonee Valley Vase winner to back up and win the Derby (since 1983), but only the second in the past five years following Lion Tamer (2010).
Savvy Nature, drawn in barrier 13, can be found a $9.20 to win however online at Ladbrokes.com.au who are running their exclusive ‘Double The Odds’ offer again this weekend.
The price for Peter Snowden’s Authroized colt Complacent meanwhile is on the drift now out to $6 (or $12 DTO).
Complacent led Victoria Derby betting pre-barrier draw but coming up with gate 16 has done them no favours.
Still the form could be there for an upset as they have defeated Savvy Nature in both of their previous encounters in Sydney, most recently when they finished first and third respectively in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick.
The Spring Champion Stakes has actually produced two of the past three Victoria Derby winners, and is the form the bookies are tipping again in 2013.
Also at $6, and firming, is then Robbie Laing’s last start Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) winner Polanski.
The money is coming thick and strong for the in-form galloper, especially after they drew barrier one which has produced four of the past 30 Victoria Derby winners.
The only other horse under $10 in the standard fixed win markets is then another Darley-owned hope in San Diego ($7) who was runner-up in the Norman Robinson last time out.
So are these single-figure chances the ones to lock into your Victoria Derby trifecta this weekend?
Or will a horse follow in the footsteps of Fiveandahalfstar last year who won at $41 making it the sixth year on the trot the Victoria Derby betting favourite didn’t get up?
#4 Polanski ($6 or $12 DTO)
There’s money coming in for this Rakti colt and we’re happy to follow that money trail this Derby Day. There’s form all over this horse and while originally the bookies weren’t tipping the Melbourne form over that from Sydney, things are taking a turn. They have won their last two on the trot including the Super Impose (1800m) here at Flemington. Last start was a winning effort over San Diego in the Norman Robinson, the race that produced 2011 Derby winner Sangster. They are all going up to 2500m here and need to get a run, Polanski will get that from the inside alley and it’s no surprise this has been the most successful gate in the race over the past 30 years. Has the form, the draw and Hugh Bowman is on shooting for his third Victoria Derby win in the past four years.
#1 Criterion ($10 or $20 DTO)
This David Payne-trained Sebring colt is also easing in the markets, mainly due to their awkward barrier 14 draw. Yes they could do it tough from the wide start needing to either go forward, Craig Williams in the saddle to decide, or go towards the back and get them with a finishing burst. They have the class to do either and can prove better than their barrier. Last two runs have produced brave second place finishes firstly in the Stan Fox behind Eurozone and then the Spring Champion to Complacent. Is one here we can almost guarantee will like the trip (2500m) which can be key to winning a Derby.
#10 Tupac Amaru ($18 or $36 DTO)
There are three Snowden-trained hopes in the Derby field this year, Tupac Amaru the roughest. We think they’ve been overlooked however and are more than happy to add them in our top three for value. The Street Cry colt was outclassed by Polanski when barrier 10 (of 14) got the better of them in the Super Impose two back. They dropped back in class but went right up in distance after that to run second in the Geelong Classic over 2200m on October 23 from a better barrier two draw. With so many not having raced beyond 2000m that was a promising sign the distance is going to suit this horse. They have also drawn well in barrier eight giving them options.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au, available at DTO and subject to change
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