Following the 2013 Victoria Derby barrier draw on Wednesday, the John O’Shea-trained Savvy Nature has overtaken a horse that has twice beaten them home on race day in the markets for Saturday’s Flemington classic.
Savabbel gelding Savvy Nature firmed in the markets after coming up with barrier 13 for the $1.5 million Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m), set to run as Flemington Race 6 at 3:00pm (AEST).
They now occupy the first line of Victoria Derby betting at a quote of $4.80 to go back-to-back following their smart three length win in the Group 2 Mitchelton Wines Vase (2040m) win at Moonee Valley last weekend.
That race has produced 14 Victoria Derby winners in the past 30 years, and Savvy Nature is tipped to be the next.
While on paper barrier 13 looks wide, they will come into gate 11 if the two emergencies fail to gain a run which has produced three Derby winners since 1983.
It is also a barrier O’Shea thinks they can win from, the allocation of wide gates to most of the top fancies in the race opening things up.
“It is very interesting with the favourites in 13, 14 and 16,” O’Shea told the Sydney Morning Herald.
“We have to think about it and see where we will end up in the run. I think there is a long tail to this race so I would want to be getting too far back.”
O’Shea put the blinkers on Savvy Nature last start, and it worked a trick, something he’d been holding off doing until the time was right.
“I haven’t many runners in Derbies but I like training this sort of horses because it is about building to grand final day,” O’Shea said.
“I thought he would improve with blinkers from the time I got him. I didn’t want to use them too early but I wanted to give him a hit out in them before grand final day.
“The horse didn’t get around the Valley that good last weekend, so we will see the true impact on Saturday.”
The trainer admitted the Derby had been a long term plan for Savvy Nature since right back when they flashed home by four and a half lengths to win their debut at Kembla Grange over 1400m in a blistering 1.23.33 back in May, and he was confident he’d get the trip.
“We have spaced his runs but one of better performances [in the Spring Stakes] at Newcastle was on a 10 day back-up,” he said.
“He has done very well [since his win on Saturday]. He has thrived down here in Melbourne.
“I think historically if you look at the horses that perform well in the Vase they come out and run the trip at least. From his pedigree is very strong and there will be no excuses for him not to run 2500m.
“From his first when he broke a record at Kembla, we said to the owners he will be set for the VRC Derby. We just wanted to get there in one piece and we have but we just have to work out what to do from the draw.”
Available at a juicy $9.60 to win in Ladbrokes.com.au’s ‘Double The Odds’ offer on the Victoria Derby 2013, Savvy Nature is now being backed to defeat former favourite Complacent ($5 or $10 DTO).
Peter Snowden’s son of Authorized defeated Savvy Nature twice in Sydney this season winning the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) and the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at their two most recent starts.
Savvy Nature ran second and third respectively in those race before their Moonee Valley win last Saturday.
Now Complacent is out for their fourth on the trot, regular jockey Kerrin McEvoy aboard, but they will have to be at their best from the gate as they see Melbourne and the distance for the first time here.
The next best in the Victoria Derby odds are then:
- #4 Polanski ($6.50 or $13 DTO) – Robbie Laing-trained Rakti colt has won their last two on the trot firstly in Flemington’s Super Impose Stakes over 1800m and then when stepped up to 2000m for the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes at Caulfield on October 19 which produced 2011 Derby winner Sangster (3rd), will also benefit from the inside alley which is the most successful Derby barrier producing four winners since 1983
- #6 San Diego ($6.50 or $13 DTO) – Peter Snowden-trained Exceed And Excel colt out to upset their shorter-priced stablemate, has drawn well in gate six and has been supported early firming in from $7, come off a brave second in the Norman Robinson Stakes and are out to prove the Melbourne form can stack up to that from Sydney’s Spring Champion
- #1 Criterion ($9 or $18 DTO) – David Payne-trained Sebring colt has run second at their two most recent runs, improving on a Golden Rose 11th before that, and is out to go one better with win here, most recent effort was runner-up to Complacent in the Spring Champion and even though they’ve got gate 14 (into 12) to overcome they have the class to be competitive again here
Outside of the single-figure chances in the standard fixed win markets are then the likes of Snowden’s third runner Tupac Amaru ($16 or $32 DTO) who saw the 2200m last start when runner-up in the Geelong Classic and one of two John Sadler-trained hopes Pinstripe Lane ($19 or $38 DTO) who was third to Savvy Nature in the Vase seven days ago on Saturday.
See below for the full Victoria Derby 2013 double the odds prices on the field, following the links to back your favourite at the best prices in the country!