Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
The Mackinnon Stakes 2013 is shaping up as a top showdown between some last-chance Melbourne Cup hopefuls at Flemington Racecourse this Derby Day, and below we take a look at the race history, form guide and betting stats.
One of four Group 1 highlights of the weekend in Melbourne, this year’s $1 million Group 1 Longines Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) features a small field of just nine hopefuls, three of which are under double figures to win.
Current $2.80 favourite on the rails in barrier one is the David Hayes-trained Cape Cross import Jet Away.
Due to be ridden by Glen Boss from their ace draw the galloper comes off an eye-catching fourth in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) and needs to win on the weekend to keep the Melbourne Cup dream alive.
They sit 30th on the order of entry for the $6.2 million, two-mile handicap back at the track next Tuesday and will win a Melbourne Cup ballot exemption along with the $600,000 winners’ cheque if successful on the weekend.
Their main dangers looking at the Mackinnon Stakes odds are perceived to be Rob Heathcote’s last-start Toorak Handicap winner Solzhenitsyn ($4) and German import Pakal ($5) who won the Cranbourne Cup at their most recent run.
So are these three the ones to lock into the Mackinnon Stakes trifecta?
Below we go over the entire race form guide, betting history and statistical facts to uncover where some value could be at in the markets pre-placing your bets online at Ladbrokes.com.au.
2013 Mackinnon Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Mackinnon Stakes winner was the Jake Stephens-trained Alcopop who came off a second in the Caulfield Cup, jumped from barrier five (of eight) and was ridden by Craig Williams
- Last year’s winning barrier (8) belongs on Saturday to #9 Dear Demi ($10)
- Williams meanwhile is without a ride in the race this year
- The most successful Mackinnon Stakes barrier (since 1983) with five winners is gate four which belongs this year to #1 Mourayan ($31)
- The next best barriers with four winners each in that time are then 2 (#4 Solzhenitsyn), 3 (#7 Pakal) and 5 (#2 Mr Moet)
- Horses that ran in the Caulfield Cup backing up in the same formline as Alcopop did last year are then #9 Dear Demi (3rd), #6 Jet Away (4th), #2 Mr Moet (6th) and #5 Moriarty (10th)
- The highest Win Rate of the field belongs to #6 Jet Away (40%) followed by #4 Solzhenitsyn (38%), #2 Mr Moet (35%)
- The best Place Rate then belongs to #4 Solzhenitsyn (71%) followed by #2 Mr Moet (65%), #6 Jet Away (65%), #7 Pakal (63%) and #3 Side Glance (62%)
- There are three last-start winners in the race with #4 Solzhenitsyn (Group 1 Toorak Handicap, 1600m, Caulfield, 12/10/2013), #7 Pakal (Listed Cranbourne Cup, 2050m, Cranbourne, 13/10/2013) and #8 Hvasstan (Unlisted Handicap, 2040m, Moonee Valley, 26/10/2013)
- Damien Oliver is the most successful Mackinnon Stakes jockey in recent years with four wins: Glass Harmonium (2011), Grand Armee (2004), Danewin (1995) and Paris Lane (1994); this year he shoots for his fifth win with #2 Mr Moet ($11)
- The best guide to the Mackinnon Stakes in the past 13 years has been the Cox Plate with eight winners in that time coming off the Moonee Valley race; the only galloper on the seven day back-up this year is #3 Side Glance ($21) who ran sixth to Shamus Award
- All but So You Think (2010) who won the Cox Plate – Mackinnon double were also unplaced in the Plate before their Mackinnon success too
- History is against #9 Dear Demi as the only mare in the race as the only of her gender to win in the past 20 years were Champagne (1998) and La Bella Dama (2001)
- #4 Solzhenitsyn ($4) must also defy history to win as they are out to become the first Toorak Handicap winner to win the Mackinnon since Leilani (1974)
- Champagne (1998) is the only other Mackinnon Stakes winner that came via the Toorak in the past three decades
- This year’s favourite #6 Jet Away ($2.80) is out to become the fourth in 11 years to salute for the punters and the 10th since 1983
Stay tuned for the Races.com.au team’s insider Mackinnon Stakes betting tips up soon.
In the meantime gear up for a big day on the punt at Flemington this Saturday by opening your online betting account with Ladbrokes.com.au – home of the famous double the odds offer on the Victoria Derby 2013.
Mackinnon Stakes Form Guide
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