2013 Cox Plate Form Guide & Betting Analysis

October 23, 2013

2013 Cox Plate Form Guide & Betting Analysis

The race every fan and punter around the country is keen for this weekend is of course the Cox Plate 2013 at Moonee Valley on Saturday, an insider form guide analysis and betting preview for which can be found below.

It's A Dundeel

It's A Dundeel is out to become the fourth 4YO in as many years to win the Cox Plate this weekend. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Scheduled as Moonee Valley Race 10 at 5:40pm (AEST), this year’s $3 million Group 1 Sportingbet Cox Plate (2040m) has already lost its draw card contender with the injured and withdrawn Atlantic Jewel now officially retired.

In the absence of Mark Kavanagh’s star mare the Cox Plate field is still at 14 runners with the Danny O’Brien-trained emergency Shamus Award, coming off a Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) third, getting a run from gate three.

Cox Plate betting meanwhile is now led by the firming $4 top elect It’s A Dundeel, who Ladbrokes.com.au punters can lock in at a juicy $8 in their exclusive Double The Cox Plate Odds Promo.

Murray Baker’s High Chaparral four-year-old, trained in NZ, scored their fifth Group 1 title last time out when scoring an upset win over Atlantic Jewel in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) which was the mare’s only loss in an otherwise flawless 11 start career.

It’s A Dundeel, to jump from gate 12 with James McDonald aboard, certainly has the class factor but whether fitness is on their side is still a query.

They’ve missed a notable amount of prep work before the Cox Plate, including a run in the Caulfield Stakes which Atlantic Jewel won with ease in what turned out to be her swansong start, due to a foot abscess.

The other top fancies in the Cox Plate odds are then Puissance De Lune ($8.80 DTO) who will be ridden by Ben Melham for the first time due to the suspension of regular jockey Glen Boss, and the Gai Waterhouse-trained 2012 Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente ($9.20 DTO).

These are the top chances in the markets along with Peter Snowden’s Caulfield Guineas winner Long John ($18 DTO) who is out to become the 20th three-year-old Cox Plate winner in history.

But are they the ones you should lock into your Cox Plate bets?

Before you head to Ladbrokes.com.au and lock in double the fixed win price on your favourites, check out our detailed Cox Plate form guide, betting history and statistical preview to help find where the value is at in this year’s classic.

2013 Cox Plate Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s Cox Plate winner was the Gary Hennessy-trained New Zealander Ocean Park who came off a Caulfield Stakes win, jumped from barrier nine (of 14) and was ridden by Glen Boss
  • #11 It’s A Dundeel ($8 DTO) will this year look to go back-to-back for the Kiwis and the four-year-olds
  • Four-year-olds have the best record with 26 wins including the past three years on the trot; the other 4YO in this year’s race is then #12 Super Cool ($42 DTO)
  • Last year’s winning barrier (9) this year belongs to #6 Seville ($102 DTO) who comes in from gate 10 after the Atlantic Jewel scratching
  • For the full 2013 Cox Plate Barrier Draw Form follow the link
  • From 1979 – 1990 10 of the 12 Cox Plate winners jumped the favourite but only five punters’ picks have won since including only two in the past decade with Makybe Diva ($2) and So You Think ($1.50)
  • Six of the other eight winners since 2003 started at double figures
  • This year’s favourite is #11 It’s A Dundeel ($4 Fixed Win Standard) who is also out to become the only Cox Plate winner (going right back to 1979) to not have had a run in October
  • #11 It’s A Dundeel hasn’t run since their Underwood win on September 21; the previous longest time between runs for a Cox Plate winner has been 21 days
  • Also against #11 It’s A Dundeel is their barrier 12 (in from 13) draw which no Cox Plate winner has jumped from since 1979
  • The favourite will also be third-up from a spell and the only Cox Plate winner since 1979 to win at their third run back from a spell was Fields Of Omah for their first win in 2003
  • With this year’s Caulfield Stakes winner Atlantic Jewel now out of Cox Plate contention the other horses coming via that traditional lead-up race are then #4 Foreteller (2nd) and Kavanagh’s remaining hope #12 Super Cool (3rd)
  • Another good Cox Plate lead-up in recent years has been the Memsie Stakes with seven Cox Plate winners since 2000 having run in the race; this year Cox Plate hopes that ran in the Memsie aside from the scratched winner Atlantic Jewel are #12 Super Cool (3rd), #11 It’s A Dundeel (4th), #1 Green Moon (5th), #3 Fioretne (6th), #2 Happy Trails (7th) and #6 Seville (13th)
  • The next best Cox Plate guide has been the Turnbull Stakes with five winners since 1979 coming via the Flemington race
  • Horses with the best record over the Cox Plate distance include #1 Green Moon (8-4-1-0), #2 Happy Trails (5-1-1-1), #4 Foreteller (8-2-2-0), #8 Puissance De Lune (3-1-2-0), #11 It’s A Dundeel (4-2-2-0) and #12 Super Cool (4-2-0-1)
  • At the track those with good Moonee Valley form include #2 Happy Trails (5-1-1-1), #3 Fiorente (1-1-0-0), #7 Rekindled Interest (8-2-1-2) and #12 Super Cool (2-1-0-0)
  • Only six mares have won the Cox Plate over the years and one filly most recently Pinker Pinker (2011); there are no remaining mares in the race this year after Atlantic Jewel was withdrawn
  • The horses with the highest Win Rate is #14 Long John ($18 DTO) with 71% followed by #11 It’s A Dundeel (64%) and #8 Puissance De Lune (47%)
  • The best Place Rate also belongs to #14 Long John (100%) who is yet to finish out of the money followed by #11 It’s A Dundeel (79%), #8 Puissance De Lune (76%), #12 Super Cool (69%), #5 Side Glance (64%), #3 Fiorente (57%) and #10 Mull Of Killough (57%)
  • There are two international runners (outside of AUS and NZ) in this year’s race with #5 Side Glance ($122 DTO) and #10 Mull Of Killough ($122 DTO)
  • Three-year-olds have won 19 editions of the Cox Plate most recently with So You Think saluting in 2009; there are now two three-year-olds in the race this year with #14 Long John ($18 DTO) and #15 Shamus Award ($52 DTO)
  • #14 Long John though is out to become the first horse to complete the Caulfield Guineas – Cox Plate double since Red Anchor (1984)

Stay tuned for our insider Cox Plate 2013 tips and selections to be published shortly.

In the meantime remember to head over to Ladbrokes.com.au and lock in their very generous double fixed win Cox Plate odds on the entire field!

2013 Cox Plate Field & Form Guide

Moonee Valley Race 10 – 5:40pm (AEST) – 26/10/2013

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