Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Today at 3:40pm (AEST) a field of nine three-year-old fillies will face off in the 2013 Thousand Guineas, but is the odds-on favourite Guelph the one to tip in your Guineas betting this afternoon?
Peter Snowden’s star daughter of Exceed And Excel is sitting top of the [ladbroke] markets for the $500,000 Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) being a three time Group 1 winner already.
Her opening two elite level victories came as a two-year-old during the autumn where she defeated the boys in both the ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes and Champagne Stakes at Randwick.
Last start the long-shot Cox Plate acceptor saluted at elite level over the mile for a second time with her all too easy win in the Group 1 Flight Stakes (1600m).
She heads to Melbourne today and is the firming $1.35 odds-on market mover in Thousand Guineas betting to score her fourth Group 1 title.
The only other runner under double figures is then May’s Dream ($9) who showed she was ready to step up to the mile for the first time when scoring a nice 1400m win at Caulfield over Bulbula on September 29.
So are these two market shorties the ones to beat? Or is there a big upset Thousand Guineas result on the cards from a longer priced rival such as Thousand Guineas Prelude winner Gregers ($12) or Bound For Earth ($14) who is the only filly this time in to have defeated Guelph?
#1 Guelph ($1.35)
Only the bravest will be taking on the favourite here and sorry to say we’re not one of them. Sticking with Snowden’s princess here who is proven at elite level three times, including her big Flight Stakes win last time out where she cantered to the line to beat a very similar line-up by an easy margin. She’s got a gun gate five draw here which is the most successful Thousand Guineas barrier in the past 30 years. Favourites thrive in this race, six of the past 10 saluting for the punters, and don’t see much stopping another one doing it here even if she’s the shortest for over 30 years at her current price. Snowden’s flying too having prepared last weekend’s Caulfield Guineas winner Long John so she comes from the right stable. The Flight Stakes – Thousand Guineas double hasn’t been done since 1996 (Dashing Eagle) but this is one smart filly.
#4 Se Sauver ($17)
Think there’s lots of value for the place and exotic Thousand Guineas bets today with Se Sauver way over the odds for us. The Bel Esprit filly broke her maiden status last month as an odds-on favourite in an easy country kill before her sixth to Gregers in the Prelude. But over the years the Prelude hasn’t been the best guide for the Thousand Guineas, so we are happy to rule a line through that and instead focus on her excellent last start effort. Going up to the mile Matt Laurie’s Mornington-based up-and-comer thrived at Flemington on October 5 and enjoyed a very good win (at $17) in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) which produced last year’s Thousand Guineas winner Commanding Jewel.
#8 Wordplay ($21)
We’ve really gone for some outside chances here but are happy to put our money where our mouths are on this Anthony Cummings-trained Fastnet Rock filly. She’s had just the four runs for one win (over 1400m at Warwick Farm) but is progressing nicely. She was a good second at Newcastle two back over the mile behind Savvy Nature who was last seen running third in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) last Saturday – form we think will continue to stack up. She then went to the Edward Manifold and was far from disgraced when fifth to Se Sauver, improvement to come and the mile suites. Jumps form gate six which produced last year’s winner too so that’s a plus.
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*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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