Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
One of the three Group 1 majors running in Melbourne on Caulfield Guineas Day this Saturday is the Toorak Handicap 2013, the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.
Running as Caulfield Race 9 at 4:55pm (AEST) this year’s $400,000 Group 1 David Jones NBCF Toorak Handicap (1600m) has drawn a big field of 17 hopefuls.
Heading the Toorak Handicap odds at $5.50 is the defending champ Solzhenitsyn.
Drawn in gate seven Rob Heathcote’s St Petersburg seven-year-old will carry a full six kilos more than they had on their back for their trainer’s second Group 1 trophy in this last year having been allocated the equal 58kg top-weight.
Also with 58kg is John Sadler’s Stradbroke Handicap winning grey Linton, the $7 co-second favourite to win following a credible first-up fifth to Rebel Dane in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) at the track two weeks back.
The other $7 fancy in Toorak Handicap betting is then the in-form Speediness, the first-up Group 3 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) winner coming off a fourth in the Rupert Clarke.
Others in the mix at better odds then include recent runner-up over the 1400m here Mouro ($10), the David Hayes-trained Bass Strait ($10) and French raider Trevieres ($12) in their maiden Aussie start having won their past two back home over 2000m and 1600m respectively.
This is what the current markets tell us. But let’s take a further look at the Toorak Handicap form, betting history and must know facts so you can back a winner online at Ladbrokes.com.au this weekend!
2013 Toorak Handicap Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Toorak Handicap winner was the Rob Heathcote-trained Solzhenitsyn who came off a Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes third, jumped form barrier 3 (of 10) with Corey Brown riding and carried 52kg
- #2 Solzhenitsyn ($5.50) is back to defend their title in 2013 this time drawn in barrier 7 (of 17) with Nash Rawiller to ride on 58kg
- Like last year though they are third-up here and ran third in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in their lead-up run
- Other Toorak hopes that come via the Sir Rupert this year are #6 Speediness (4th), #1 Linton (5th), #3 Luckygray (6th), #5 Ferlax (7th), #4 December Draw (9th), #13 Dany The Fox (10th), #14 Mutual Trust (11th), #8 Yosei (12th) and #7 Budriguez (14th)
- The barrier Solzhenitsyn jumped from to win last year (3) on Saturday belongs to #16 Transporter ($21) which is the most successful barrier in the past 30 years producing five winners
- The next most successful Toorak Handicap barriers with three wins each in that time are then 2, 5, 8 and 11 which belong this year to #1 Linton ($7), #15 Blackie ($26), #12 Trevieres ($12) and #17 Bass Strait ($10) respectively
- There are three last-start winners in the mix with #12 Trevieres (Handicap, 1600m, Deauville (FR), 11/08/2013), #15 Blackie (Handicap, 1500m, Moonee Valley, 27/09/2013) and #17 Bass Strait (Handicap, 1700m, Caulfield, 29/09/2013)
- #3 Luckygray ($15) boasts the highest Win Rate of the field with 52% followed by #5 Ferlax (50%)
- The best Place Rate then belongs to #10 Mouro ($10) with 90% followed by #9 Lord Of Brazil (81%), #2 Solzhenitsyn (70%), #13 Dany The Fox (67%), #16 Transporter (65%), #5 Ferlax (63%) and #3 Luckygray (61%)
- Those with the best Caulfield track record include #2 Solzhenitsyn (3-1-0-2), #7 Budriguez (7-2-1-1) and #17 Bass Strait (2-1-0-0)
- Over the distance those with a good record include #1 Linton (6-3-0-1), #2 Solzhenitsyn (7-4-0-2), #3 Luckygray (3-2-1-0), #4 December Draw (7-2-0-1), #6 Speediness (6-2-2-1), #7 Budriguez (7-6-0-0), #9 Lord Of Brazil (9-4-2-2), #13 Dany The Fox (3-2-0-0) and #16 Transporter (9-4-3-1)
- Aside from More Joyous who set a weight carrying record for mares with 58kg in 2010 and King Mufhasa who carried the same weight to victory in 2011, the modern day record shows horses with 55kg or less are more advantaged in the Toorak; this year that rules out #1 Linton (58kg), #2 Solzhenitsyn (58kg), #3 Luckygray (57kg), #4 December Draw (57kg) and #6 Speediness (56kg)
- Only two winners in the past 10 years have saluted at double figures with Allez Wonder (2009) and Roman Arch (2003) both paying $41
- Favourites have won three of the past 10 with this year’s favourite being the defending champ #2 Solzhenitysn ($5.50)
- Four and five-year-olds boast the best record winning five and four of the past 10 editions respectively; the only runners of this age this year are #5 Ferlax (4YO), #17 Bass Strait (4YO), #10 Mouro (5YO) and #13 Dany The Fox (5YO)
- King Mufhasa (2011) is the only seven-year-old to have won the race in the past three decades; horses that age out to break the hoodoo this year are #1 Linton ($7), #2 Solzhenitsyn ($5.50), #7 Budriguez ($51) and #9 Lord Of Brazil ($18)
Stay tuned for our insider Toorak Handicap 2013 betting tips to be published shortly.
In the meantime why not head over to Ladbrokes.com.au and check out their awesome weekend racing markets and bonus offers including the juicy $500 welcome bet offer for new depositing players!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au and subject to change
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