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This weekend the Melbourne racing action is headlined by the three-year-olds facing off in the 2013 Caulfield Guineas, the Races.com.au team’s insider form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.
In a bid to keep the spectators and punters around until the very end of the day, the $1 million Group 1 BECK Caulfield Guineas (1600m) will run as Race 10 on Saturday jumping as the last at 5:45pm (AEST).
A final field of 14 three-year-olds is engaged in the Caulfield Guineas this spring, betting led by the Peter Snowden-trained Long John.
Street Cry gelding Long John, last seen running a luckless third in the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) two weeks ago, pays $4 in the standard Fixed Win Caulfield Guineas odds.
However thanks to Ladbrokes.com.au’s exclusive Double The Odds (DTO) promo, all the horses in the Caulfield Guineas field are available at twice the price meaning punters can get Long John to win at $8.
The next best fancied in the markets at $5.50 ($11 in DTO) is then Prince Harada who has barrier 12 to overcome but who will be suited to the mile after a Golden Rose fifth last time out.
Following the top two in Caulfield Guineas betting are then Éclair Big Bang paying $8 (or $16 in DTO) and El Roca at $7.50 ($15 in DTO) who ran one-two in the Prelude.
There’s also been love for Peter Moody’s underrated Golden Rose runner-up Dissident at $9 ($18 in DTO) who will relish coming back to their own age after a credible sixth in the Group 1 WFA George Main Stakes over the mile at Randwick.
That’s the story the betting markets tell us, but what about the Caulfield Guineas form guide and betting history?
2013 Caulfield Guineas Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Caulfield Guineas winner was the Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes-trained All Too Hard who came off a fourth in the George Main Stakes and jumped form barrier three (of eight) with Dwayne Dunn aboard
- This year #1 Dissident ($18 DTO) is the only horse coming via the George Main having run sixth
- The gate All Too Hard jumped from to win 12 months ago (3) this year belongs to #2 Charlie Boy ($32 DTO) who is looking to become the fourth Caulfield Guineas winner to jump from the barrier since 1983
- The most successful Caulfield Guineas barrier in the past 30 years with six wins meanwhile is the inside alley; barrier one belongs this year to the favourite #4 Long John ($8 DTO)
- The next best barrier in that time with five wins has then been four which #6 Éclair Big Bang ($16 DTO) has drawn this year
- 13 of the past 20 Caulfield Guineas winner jumped from barriers one – four
- A number of barriers haven’t produced a winner in the past three decades including 5, 6, 9, and 14 belonging this year to #13 Great Esteem ($202 DTO), #8 Weinholt ($82 DTO), #9 Late Charge ($82 DTO) and #12 Nite Rocker ($202 DTO) who will be out to break the hoodoo on these barriers
- The best lead-up race in recent years has been the Caulfield Guineas Prelude producing seven of the past 10 Caulfield Guineas winners
- This year hopes that ran in the Prelude include #6 Éclair Big Bang (1st), #10 El Roca (2nd), #4 Long John (3rd), #2 Charlie Boy (4th), #8 Weinholt (5th) and #14 Marwood (6th)
- #6 Éclair Big Bang will also be out to become the third horse in four years to take out the Prelude – Guineas double and the fourth in the past 10 years joining Helmet (2011), Anacheeva (2010) and Wonderful World (2006)
- Another decent form line for the Caulfield Guineas has been the Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley, two winners of which went on to win the Guineas in the past 10 years with Whobegotyou (2008) and Helenus (2002)
- Horses that had a run in the Bill Stutt this year are the winner #3 Divine Calling ($34 DTO), #5 Shamus Award (2nd), #11 Cluster (3rd) and #9 Late Charge (5th)
- Caulfield Guineas Prelude winner #6 Éclair Big Bang and Bill Stutt Stakes champ #3 Divine Calling are the only two last start winners in the race this year – 10 of the past 20 Caulfield Guineas winners won their last start
- Favourites only have a fair recent record in the Guineas with three saluting in the past 10 years; this year #4 Long John ($8 DTO) will look to be the next
- Four Guineas winners in the past 10 years have won at double-figures including All Too Hard ($12) last year
- The biggest Caulfield Guineas blowout in history, and the biggest blowout in Melbourne Group 1 history, meanwhile was back in 1936 when Abaridy scored as a $251 chance – giving some hope to Saturday’s triple figure roughies #12 Nite Rocker and #13 Great Esteem
- There are three horses with a previous Caulfield win with #1 Dissident (3-1-0-1), #6 Éclair Big Bang (1-1-0-0) and #8 Weinholt (2-1-0-0)
- The only horse with a win over the mile and therefore proven at the distance is then #3 Divine Calling (1-1-0-0)
- Last seen running fifth in the Golden Rose on September 14, #7 Prince Harada ($11 DTO) meanwhile has a number of historical hoodoos to overcome including being the first Caulfield Guineas winner since 1983 to come off a 28-day break
- The longest break between runs for a Caulfield Guineas winner was 24 days when Mahogany won back in 1993
- All Too Hard meanwhile was the sixth horse in that time to win the Guineas off a 21-day break
Stay tuned to Races.com.au to view our insider Caulfield Guineas tips to be published shortly.
Already picked the winner and want to lock them in at Double The Odds? Follow the link and get the best price online at the industry leading Ladbrokes.com.au.
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from Ladbrokes.com.au subject to change
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