Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
On Saturday a bumper 10-race Flemington card is headlined by the Turnbull Stakes 2013– the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide analysis and betting preview for which is detailed below.
Jumping as Flemington Race 8 at 4:25pm (AEST), this year’s $500,000 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) has attracted a capacity field of 16 starters plus four emergencies.
With many of the top Turnbull contenders Spring Cups-bound, this is always a much watch race for punters looking for an early Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup betting guide.
There are five horses paying under $10 to win the Turnbull in the latest markets with narrow favourite being the top Melbourne Cup fancy Puissance De Lune ($4.40).
Hot on their tail at a firming $4.60 is then last year’s Melbourne Cup runner-up in their Aussie debut, the Gai Waterhouse-trained import Fiorente.
Fiorente also comes off a win in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and, like Puissance De Lune, is out to complete the Turnbull Stakes / Melbourne Cup double achieved by five horses before them including Green Moon last spring.
This is what the Turnbull Stakes odds have to say but what about the race history, form guide and betting statistics?
See below for the must know Turnbull Stakes facts taking all of the above into consideration so you can place the winning bets online at Ladbrokes.com.au before jump time!
2013 Turnbull Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Turnbull Stakes winner was the Robert Hickmott-trained, Lloyd Williams-owned Green Moon who jumped from barrier 8 (of 16) and was ridden by Craig Williams
- This year Hickmott and Williams will be represented by #11 Fawkner ($10) in last year’s winning gate eight (into six with emergencies out) with Nicholas Hall to ride
- #11 Fawkner however will come into barrier six if the emergencies all fail to gain a run, in which case it would be #12 Mr O’Ceirin ($41) in Green Moon’s winning Turnbull gate from 12 months ago
- Barrier eight is in fact the most successful Turnbull Stakes barrier in the past 30 years producing six winners
- The next most successful gate is nine with four winners; #4 Super Cool ($7.50) is currently in barrier nine but with the four emergencies out it would belong to #2 Sangster (12 into nine)
- Craig Williams meanwhile will shoot for back-to-back Turnbull wins aboard #14 Dear Demi ($21)
- Barriers have been crucial in the Turnbull Stakes with only two horses since 2002 drawing double figure barriers, including the past seven on the trot who jumped between barriers two and eight
- Established Group 1 performers are best suited to the set weights with penalties conditions of the race with six winners since 2005 being six-years-old or above
- This year the seasoned gallopers six or above looking to continue the trend are #1 Manighar (8YO), #3 Happy Trails (6YO), #6 Fiorente (6YO), #7 Puissance De Lune (6YO), #8 Glencadam Gold (6YO), #9 Tuscan Fire (7YO), #11 Fawkner (6YO), #12 Mr O’Ceirin (6YO), #13 Jet Away (7YO), #17e Precedence (8YO) and #18e Waldpark (6YO)
- Favourites have won four of the past Turnbull Stakes including December Draw ($2.15 in 2011) and Green Moon ($4 in 2012) and this year #7 Puissance De Lune ($4.40) will look to salute for the punters
- The Underwood Stakes has been the best guide for the Turnbull Stakes in recent years with five Turnbull Stakes winners in the past decade coming via the Underwood including two who scored the double with Northerly (2002) and Elvstroem (2004)
- Turnbull hopes coming via this year’s Underwood and where they placed are Dear Demi (3rd), Happy Trails (4th), Manighar (5th), Silent Achiever (6th), Puissance De Lune (7th) and Waldpark (11th)
- And horses don’t need to have run a place in the Underwood either with Sphenophyta (6th) in 2006 and Efficient (9th) in 2009 having backed up from distant Underwood runs to win their respective Turnbull Stakes
- Mares only have a fair record in the race with just five winners since 1983 with Just Now (1986), Let’s Elope (1991), Sunline (2001), Makybe Diva (2005) and Devil Moon (2007)
- There are four mares taking on the boys in the Turnbull this year with #10 Silent Achiever ($18), #14 Dear Demi ($21), #15 Quintessential ($41) and #16 Royal Descent ($6)
- The horse boasting the highest Win Rate is #7 Puissance de Lune (50%) followed by #11 Fawkner (44%), #13 Jet Away (44%) and #16 Royal Descent (40%)
- Horses boasting the best record over the distance include #12 Mr O’Ceirin (7-5-1-0), #13 Jet Away (10-6-1-0) and #1 Manighar (7-2-1-1)
- At Flemington the horses to beat look to be #11 Fawkner (8-5-2-0), #9 Tuscan Fire (7-3-1-1), #4 Super Cool (3-1-1-0) and #7 Puissance De Lune (3-2-1-0)
- There are two last start winners in the field this year with #12 Mr O’Ceirin (Group 3 Naturalism Stakes, 2000m Caulfield, 21/09/2013) and #13 Jet Away (Group 3 Easter Cup, 2000m, Caulfield, 30/03/2013)
- Speaking of last starts, just three of the past 30 Turnbull Stakes winners came off a run in Sydney
- This year last-start Sydney starters out to buck the trend are #16 Royal Descent and #5 Hawkspur who ran second and fourth respectively in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, George Main fifth placed #11 Fawkner and Hill Stakes second placed #8 Glencadam Gold
- Looking at the Turnbull Stakes weights Zipping (2010) is the only horse int eh last 10 years to carry more than 57.5kg to victory; this year it is #1 Manighar (59kg) out to break that record
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our insider Turnbull Stakes 2013 betting tips to be published shortly.
Already have your favourites selected and want to lock them in at the best price?
Then head to Ladbrokes.com.au now and check out their crazy Double The Odds offer starting with the Turnbull Stakes this weekend giving you double the fixed win price on your favourite for bets up to $50!
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