Anthony Freedman has the Brisbane Winter Racing...
She’s a triple Group 1 winner, favourite for the Cox Plate this spring, comes off an elite level win first-up over the boys and goes back to field of her own kind making Atlantic Jewel the obvious Stocks Stakes 2013 betting tip in Melbourne this weekend.
Mark Kavanagh’s eight-time winning Fastnet Rock mare Atlantic Jewel had 16 months off due to injury starting mid-way through last year but is back and going as good as ever.
Winner of the Thousand Guineas in Melbourne and Sydney’s All Aged Stakes in 2011 and 2012 respectively, the now five-year-old returned to racing at Caulfield on August 31.
There she easily defeated a very good field including runner-up Ferlax by two and a half lengths in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) earning her top spot in the futures Cox Plate odds for October’s weight-for-age classic.
It looked as though Atlantic Jewel would take her next step towards the Cox Plate in the Group 2 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) going up against her Australian Cup winning stablemate Super Cool, third in the Memsie, again.
Kavanagh however didn’t want to take any risks fearing the notorious ‘second-up syndrome’ and instead accepted her for another mile weight-for-age Moonee Valley race on Saturday, the mares-only $220,000 Group 2 Top Cut Stocks Stakes (1600m).
Unsurprisingly she’s at the nearly unbackable price of $1.07, out from $1.06, and also unsurprising is that she’s the Races.com.au’s Stocks Stakes tip to win.
#1 Atlantic Jewel ($1.07)
She’s at this Black Caviar-esque price for a reason and we won’t bet against her. Has a trio of Group 1 wins to her name and showed she’d made a wonderful recovery from a nasty injury with her blistering first-up Memsie success. Beat far better in that race against an open Group 1 field. She will appreciate the mile second-up having taken out the Thousand Guineas over the 1600m by three lengths as a 3YO. She’s also no stranger to racing (and winning – she’s undefeated) in Sydney with the four length Sapphire first-up last April and the All Aged beating Rain Affair over the 1400m at Randwick. Comes back in class from the Memsie, mares-only here, just seven to beat, ace gate two draw, WFA, Michael Rodd on her back. Only the brave will take her on and we’re not that courageous.
#7 Bec Said No Credit $34)
Really nice price for this up-and-comer who shoots for their fourth straight win. That streak will end here but she has what it takes to be next over the line after the Jewel. Continues to improve with each run and is up to her 20th start on Saturday. Back-to-back 1300m wins on the synthetic Geelong track in 10 days apart last month then led to her Caulfield run on August 31. There she was ridden for the third straight time by Michelle Payne, who stays on this weekend, in the $80,000 Hocking Stuart Handicap (1400m). It was a cracking effort too as she put three quarters of a length on Fibrillation, a $26 chance for Saturday, to win. She also beat fellow Stocks Stakes rival Ava’s Delight, also at $26 for Saturday, who ran third there.
#3 Oasis Bloom ($17)
Second favourite at $17 and will be in the finish for sure. Last two runs look poor on paper when 7th (Cockram Stakes) and 9th (Let’s Elope Stakes) first and second up. But don’t stress, she did something similar last spring when her Cockram 7th and Let’s Elope 10th led to her Stocks Stakes win over Spirit Song. She was also just off them when under a length away fourth in the Myer Classic last Melbourne Cup Carnival. If history repeats then this Al Maher five-year-old will be fighting for second place – first firmly belongs to Kavanagh’s stable ace.
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