Will they or Won’t They? Analysing the 2013 Cox Plate Betting Favourites

It’s a long way until October 26 and the 2013 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley but that doesn’t mean it is too early to try and find a winner.

It's A Dundeel is the early Cox Plate favourite. Photo: Steve Hart.

Futures betting has become more and more popular in recent times and often one of the trickier assignments is working out whether a horse will actually head to the race.

While anything can happen between now and the spring, some trainers make public their horses targets well in advance.

Here, we run the fine tooth comb over the top five  Cox Plate betting fancies, providing an analysis of their form, likelihood to head to the race and standing as a betting proposition.

It’s A Dundeel $4.20

  • Starred as a three-year-old, winning Sydney’s 3YO triple crown
  • Is eight from 12, a genuine star galloper
  • Watch out: Beaten in his only two starts in Melbourne
  • Will he run? Been publicly delcared by the camp that the Cox Plate is his major spring target
  • Price? Way too short this far out
  • Verdict: Wait and see

Super Cool $6.50

  • Winner of four of nine, including thumping the older horses in the Group 1 Australian Cup
  • Beat It’s A Dundeel at Moonee Valley last year
  • 2000m looks his best distance, proven at Moonee Valley
  • Will he run? Trainer Mark Kavanagh said 2000m is most suitable and implied Cox Plate will be the target.
  • Price? I think should be swapped with It’s A Dundeel, proven at track, distance and beat him in their only encounter.
  • Verdict: The $6.50 may be a touch short this far out but if the Cox Plate was run tomorrow I would be in his camp

Military Attack $9

  • Hong Kong horse, won two Hong Kong Group 1s and one Singapore Group 1
  • Last seen winning over 2000m in the Singapore International Airlines Cup in May
  • Three-time winner over 2000m
  • Will he run? Trainer John Moore said he is keen to target Cox Plate after Singapore win
  • Price? Probablya fair price if he was in Australia already but there’s no telling how he’ll handle the trip over
  • Verdict: Would like to see him fit and healthy in Australia before getting involved

Atlantic Jewel $12

  • Absolute superstar, unbeaten from seven starts
  • But injuries mean she hasn’t raced since April last year
  • Will she run? Would definitely be the goal if she was fit and firing and early reports of her preparation are positive. However, there’s no knowing if she’ll even make it back to the track let alone a Cox Plate.
  • Price? She’d be a short-priced favourite if fit and well. So probably about right given the injury concerns.
  • Verdict: Coming back from a tendon injury makes betting with confidence tough.

Sea Moon $14

  • Recent addition to prominent owner Lloyd Williams’ team
  • Dual Group 2 winner in the UK, has beaten the likes of Dunaden, Red Cadeaux who quinellad 2012 Melbourne Cup
  • Will he run? Williams went Cox Plate to the Melbourne Cup last year with Green Moon so there is every possibility he’ll follow the same path.
  • Price? Classy animal but yet to be seen in Australia and Cox Plate won’t be main goal. Maybe a touch short.
  • Verdict: Melbourne Cup will be the major goal, with the Cox Plate a possibility as a lead-up. Combine that with the fact he’s yet to be seen in Australia and it’s hard to take a piece with any sort of confidence.

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