Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
With overcast skies in Queensland threatening to open up over Eagle Farm Racecourse for this Saturday’s big Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival grand final the odds on Anthony Cummings’ BTC Cup winner Your Song have firmed right in with the colt now the favourite again to win the Stradbroke Handicap 2013.
Fastnet Rock three-year-old Your Song resumed off a lengthy seven month spell at Eagle Farm on May 11 and instantly put themselves in contention for the $1.36 million Group 1 AAMI Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) with a remarkable five length romp in the Group 1 BTC Cup (1200m).
Enjoying a Heavy (9) track Your Song shot to the top of the Stradbroke odds after that effort but fell back in the markets two weeks later when beaten into sixth in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1350m).
There were a few things working against Your Song in the 10,000 including their barrier 15 of 15 draw, a firmer track and the awkward ride from Hugh Bowman who replaced their BTC Cup winning jockey Peter Robl.
With Robl back in the saddle for Saturday however, and with Your Song set to get a sweeter ride from barrier 11 (into eight with emergencies out), the money has come in for them and they are now the $4.80 top fancy once more.
But coming up against a crack Stradbroke Handicap field that includes a number that beat them home at Doomben last time out including 10,000 winner Epaulette, local champion Buffering and a host of other talented three-year-olds including Better Than Ready it won’t be an easy race for any horse to win.
So can Your Song salute for the punters and become just the third top fancy to win the Stradbroke Handicap in the past 11 years?
Robl certainly believes they are in with a good chance.
“He’s more than got enough ability, he’s got a good weight and he’s got a good gate,” Robl said.
Below we take a further look into their chances.
#8 Your Song – Horse Form
- Barrier: 11 (into 8)
- Jockey: Peter Robl
- Trainer: Anthony Cummings
- Owners: Gooree Pastoral Company
- Age: 3YO
- Gender: Colt
- Breeding: by Fastnet Rock from Zembu
- Career: 8-3-1-2
- Win: 37.50%
- Place: 75%
- Last 6: 283×16
- Prize Money: $447,180
- Track: 1-1-0-0
- Distance: 3-1-0-0
- Current 2013 Stradbroke Handicap Odds: $4.80
Why Your Song Can Win the Stradbroke Handicap 2013
- Will appreciate a better barrier than the visitor’s draw (15 of 15) they had in the Doomben 10,000
- Regular rider Peter Robl jumps back on and should do a better job than Bowman last start
- Part of the current gun crop of three-year-olds who are dominating the Group 1’s in open-age company this season
- Emphatic five length winner of the BTC Cup first-up beating a number of these
- Can be forgiven for their sixth in the Doomben 10,000 where things didn’t go there way
- Gets in better with the weights here too dropping from 57kg to just 54kg meeting Doomben 10,000 winner Epaulette (56kg) two kilos better
- Not having won their last start actually works in their favour as no Stradbroke Handicap winner came off a victory since 1993
- Has won their only start at Eagle Farm
- If the rain comes they could be hard to hold out
Why Your Song Will be Beaten in the 2013 Stradbroke Handicap Result
- There were excuses in the Doomben 10,000 but still need to make the improvement off that to return to form here
- Money is coming in for them with punters tipping a wet track however unless there’s a downpour likely to see Dead (5) for the race, is that too firm for them to really get an advantage?
- There are horses with better form at the distance including #3 Solzhenitsyn (9-5-1-2) and #4 Streama (4-3-1-0)
- Only two favourites in the past 10 years have won the Stradbroke
- Their Win Rate is only average but Place Rate is second best in the field (75%) so could be better Each Way
Whether you’re getting on the favourites’ bandwagon or taking them on with your Stradbroke Handicap bets this weekend make sure you lock in the best prices online at bookmaker.com.au.
Make sure also you take advantage of their exclusive Stradbroke Handicap Money Back Special where you’ll get your first bet refunded up to $100 if your horse runs second to a Queenslander in the big one.
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