The market for Saturday’s Group 1 2013 Doomben 10,000 (1350m) has Sydney colt Your Song as a clear $2.70 favourite.
But is it worth taking the short price about the soon-to-be retired Group 1 winner?
There are two glaring factors that suggest the value could be elsewhere in Saturday’s feature sprint, the state of the track and Your Song’s tricky outside barrier draw.
It’s probably fair to say that if Your Song produces a repeat performance of his BTC Cup run the outside alley in the 15-horse field won’t matter.
That sentiment was echoed by jockey Hugh Bowman who had the prime spectator’s seat for Your Song’s BTC Cup when watching the three-year-old fly past him when aboard runner-up Rain Affair.
“I was really travelling and I had just quickened up, yet Your Song just sailed past me and it took me totally by surprise,” Bowman told The Courier Mail.
But if the Anthony Cummings-trained three-year-old is slightly off his game, getting trapped wide and covering extra territory could be the difference between a win and a minor placing.
History is also clearly against the favourite when it comes to his draw. In the past 30 years only Chief De Beers in 1998 has been able to win the race from the outside.
Is Your Song an out-and-out wet-track bully? Probably not but all three of his career wins have come on wet ground. It is however worth noting that he did run second to Pierro on a Good 3 in last year’s Run To The Rose.
Your Song zipped through the heavy muck at Eagle Farm in the BTC Cup while the majority of his rivals failed to handle it.
The current forecast for Brisbane suggests the Doomben track is likely to be in the Dead range this weekend which probably won’t be detrimental to Your Song, but it certainly improves the chances of his key rivals.
If he repeats his first-up performance he is likely to be winning again but with all else aside, the brilliance of that run was so good that it will be hard to reproduce no matter the conditions.
Your Song’s rivals get more favourable conditions this weekend so that, along with the historically tough barrier draw, means the short price being offered is tough to take.