Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday a field full of smart sprinters will face off in Adelaide’s richest race with The Goodwood 2013 running at Morphettville Racecourse, and to help you sort the pretenders from the genuine contenders below is a detailed form analysis and betting guide on the autumn classic.
Set to run as Morphettville Race 7 at 4:05pm (local time) this year’s $500,000 Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m), won 12 months ago by the mighty Black Caviar, has drawn 18 final acceptors.
Clear cut favourite of the bunch is Peter Moody’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Moment Of Change at $2.10 in The Goodwood odds.
Coming up trumps with barrier six for The Goodwood with Luke Nolen to ride, the Barley A Moment four-year-old was on fire in their opening two runs when second to Black Caviar in the Lightning and second again this time to Shamexpress by a nose in the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington.
They were disappointing last start however when dead last to Pierro in the Canterbury Stakes, a performance Moody is blaming on the track surface.
“The track was just that little bit greasy that day which he doesn’t like, I reckon he’s a horse that will probably handle heavy and he’ll handle good but he’s just not at home on those greasy surfaces,” he said.
There are then just two other single-figure fancies in The Goodwood odds with Yosei ($8) and Facile Tigre ($8.50).
Yosei hasn’t won a race since the 2011 Tattersall’s Tiara but continues to pop up in the minor placings in the Group 1’s around the place.
Her most recent run was one of those when third behind Platelet, also backing up in The Goodwood, in the Robert Sangster Stakes over the same track and distance as Saturday’s race and gets in here with just 52.5kg’s.
Sunshine Coast-based Facile Tigre races for the first time since the Oakleigh Plate where they produced a career best effort to finish runner-up to Mrs Onassis.
Out for another big Group 1 run fresh here and gets a four kilo weight relief from Moment Of Change.
Other notable hopes at better odds then include Robert Sangster winner Platelet ($12) who will have to be at her best drawn one inside the favourite, and the Peter Snowden-trained Altar ($17) who ran a credible fifth in the Robert Sangster.
So is Moment Of Change really the horse to beat even with their big weight? Or is there an upset The Goodwood result on the cards?
After going over the field, form guide and betting history below we’ve come up with the must know facts on the race for you to consider before locking in your selections online at bookmaker.com.au.
2013 The Goodwood Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s The Goodwood winner was the Peter Moody-trained Black Caviar who came off a win in the Robert Sangster Stakes, jumped from barrier eight (of 9) and was ridden by Luke Nolen
- This year Moody will vie for back-to-back wins with the odds-on favourite #1 Moment Of Change ($2.10) and outside chance #14 Justify That ($151) – last year’s winning hoop Nolen aboard the former
- #1 Moment Of Change is drawn in barrier six which has produced just one other winner since 1983
- Last year’s winning barrier (8) this year belongs to #7 Facile Tigre ($8.50) and is the most successful Robert Sangster Stakes gate with five winners in the past three decades
- This year’s Robert Sangster Stakes winner will vie for the same double as Black Caviar with #2 Platelet ($12) to back-up on Saturday
- There is only one other last start winner in the mix with #3 General Truce ($18) coming off a Group 3 DC McKay Stakes (1100m) win at the track from April 27
- Black Caviar was just the second favourite in the past 10 years to win The Goodwood; #1 Moment Of Change out to become the next and just the fifth since 1983
- Five of the past 10 winners meanwhile have jumped at double figures including two at $30 making the roughies a look in
- #1 Moment Of Change also boasts the best Win Rate of this field with 41.67% followed by #15 Karacatis (36.36%), #7 Facile Tigre (35.00%) and #2 Platelet (33.33%)
- The highest Place Percentage then belongs to #15 Karacatis (90.91%) followed by #2 Platelet (88.89%), #1 Moment Of Change (83.33%) and #11 Zamorar (78.57%)
- Horses with the best record at the track are #2 Platelet (2-1-1-0), #3 General Truce (4-1-1-1), #4 Outlandish Lad (17-4-1-3), #6 Riziz (8-2-0-2), #12 Conservatorium (14-5-1-0) and #15 Karacatis (6-2-4-0)
- Over the distance those to beat based on the stats are #1 Moment Of Change (4-2-1-1), #2 Platelet (7-4-1-0), #4 Outlandish Lad (19-4-2-4), #6 Riziz (4-2-0-0), #7 Facile Tigre (10-4-1-1), #8 Amaethon (6-2-2-0) and #12 Conservatroium (12-5-1-0)
- There are then six horses that have won over the Track & Distance with #2 Platelet (1-1-0-0), #4 Outlandish Lad (10-2-1-3), #6 Riziz (3-1-0-0), #14 Justify That (7-1-2-1), #16 Meadows Jim (6-1-0-1) and most notably #12 Conservatorium (9-5-1-0)
Think you’ve made the best The Goodwood 2013 betting selections based on the above facts and stats?
Lock in your picks online now at bookmaker.com.au and make sure to also check out their site on your mobile where you can now deposit directly from your phone and take advantage of their $500 bonus sign-up bet for new depositors!
2013 The Goodwood Field & Form Guide
Morphettville Race 7 – 4:05pm (local) – 11/05/2013
|1.||MOMENT OF CHANGE||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||6||58.5||4yoG||49||$57,491||12: 5 2 3||41.67%||83.33%||31×220|
|2.||PLATELET||D K Weir||Ben Melham||5||56.5||4yoM||14||$34,776||18: 6 5 5||33.33%||88.89%||25×321|
|3.||GENERAL TRUCE||Ricky Maund||Nicholas Hall||3||56||5yoG||14||$18,530||40: 8 7 9||20.00%||60.00%||0x6311|
|4.||OUTLANDISH LAD||D W O’leary||Jason Holder||11||56||7yoG||28||$13,046||44: 11 7 6||25.00%||54.55%||103556|
|5.||GALAH||Peter Snowden||Kerrin Mc Evoy||17||56||4yoH||140||$26,787||15: 4 2 3||26.67%||60.00%||46230x|
|6.||RIZIZ||K M Sweeney||Simon Price||4||55.5||4yoG||14||$17,378||16: 5 2 4||31.25%||68.75%||390×16|
|7.||FACILE TIGRE||Jason Mclachlan||Brad Rawiller||8||54.5||6yoG||77||$22,370||20: 7 4 3||35.00%||70.00%||3007×2|
|8.||AMAETHON||M Ellerton and S Zahra||Damian Lane||14||54.5||6yoG||21||$14,668||27: 5 6 5||18.52%||59.26%||3x1x27|
|9.||SHELLSCRAPE||Ms N Burke||Dwayne Dunn||2||54.5||6yoH||14||$28,140||26: 6 5 4||23.08%||57.69%||0x00x0|
|10.||ZEDI KNIGHT||B J Mccarthy||Chris Symons||1||54.5||8yoG||21||$14,435||47: 12 5 5||25.53%||46.81%||701453|
|11.||ZAMORAR||D J Bourne||V A Colgan||10||54.5||4yoG||28||$18,781||14: 4 5 2||28.57%||78.57%||3232×0|
|12.||CONSERVATORIUM||G D Kennewell||Joe Bowditch||18||54.5||5yoG||14||$11,752||22: 6 2 1||27.27%||40.91%||2532×5|
|13.||PERTURBO||C and C Alderson||Stephen Baster||12||54.5||7yoG||35||$12,142||36: 9 4 2||25.00%||41.67%||80×440|
|14.||JUSTIFY THAT||G P Moody||Krystal Bishop (a)||16||54.5||5yoG||21||$6,074||38: 8 7 5||21.05%||52.63%||x25276|
|15.||KARACATIS||R R Jolly||Paul Gatt||7||54.5||4yoG||14||$10,918||11: 4 6 0||36.36%||90.91%||2×1212|
|16.||MEADOWS JIM||J D Smith||Dominic Tourneur||13||54.5||5yoG||14||$5,493||23: 3 4 2||13.04%||39.13%||5×4447|
|17.||YOSEI||S J Webb||Michelle Payne||9||52.5||5yoM||14||$38,366||33: 4 1 4||12.12%||27.27%||3040×3|
|18.||ALTAR||Peter Snowden||Vlad Duric||15||52.5||4yoM||14||$27,992||12: 1 2 1||8.33%||33.33%||42×485|
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and are subject to change
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au
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