Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
She may be facing a smart field of in-form fillies including two Group 1 winners from New Zealand over to steal the spotlight but there’s still plenty in favour of Clarry Conners’ Crown Oaks winner Dear Demi for Saturday’s 2013 ATC Australian Oaks at Randwick.
The daughter of Dehere hit the big time last spring winning the Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) at Flemington and started her Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival campaign off in similar fashion.
After a first-up third in the Light Fingers Stakes she beat home a good field including Driefontein (2nd) and Longport (3rd) in the Group 2 Surround Stakes (1400m) at Warwick Farm on March 9.
She failed to back up from that run however when she went back up to Group 1 company for the Coolmore Classic managing to only finish 11th to Appearance.
Dear Demi also finished out of the money at her last lead-up run heading into this weekend’s $550,000 Group 1 Patinack Farm Australian Oaks (2400m) when finishing six lengths away fifth to Norzita in the Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m on April 6 at Rosehill after jumping from barrier 14 of 14.
For the Australian Oaks a number of things point towards an improved performance from Dear Demi including a more favourable barrier six draw and the step back up to the 2400m.
But without the glowing lead-up form of a number of her rivals what real chance does Dear Demi, the $5.50 third favourite behind NZ Derby winner Habibi ($3) and last Saturday’s Adrian Knox Stakes champ Royal Descent ($5), have of scoring the Crown Oaks – Australian Oaks double?
# 1 Dear Demi – Horse Form
- Barrier: 6
- Jockey: Jim Cassidy
- Trainer: Clarry Conners
- Owners: Strawberry Hill Stud
- Age: 3YO
- Gender: Filly
- Breeding: by Dehere from Shirley
- Career: 19-5-3-4
- Win: 26.32%
- Place: 63.16%
- Last 6: 1×3105
- Prize Money: $1,263,100
- Distance: 0-0-0-0
- Current 2013 Australian Oaks Odds: $5.50
Why Dear Demi Can Return to Form in the Australian Oaks 2013
- Gate six gives her options in the run and is a far better barrier than her horror 14 of 14 last start
- Barrier six also produced last year’s Oaks winner Streama
- Hall of Fame jockey Jim Cassidy retains the ride
- Group 1 Crown Oaks winner over 2500m from the spring so has class and can handle the distance
- Has class having won over $1.26 million in prize money to date
- Forget her Vinery Stud effort she’ll be better over more distance and on firmer ground
- One of only three in the field with winning form at Randwick having won as a juvenile last April
- Also second to super colt Pierro at this track in the 2012 Champagne Stakes so Randwick suits
- Beat a number of these three back in the Surround Stakes including Longport and Royal Descent
Why Dear Demi Can’t Win the 2013 Australian Oaks
- Has one of the lower Win Rates in this field with only 26.32%
- Needs to beat some smart fillies that come off better form like the favourite #2 Habibi ($3) and #45 Royal Descent ($5) who both ran cracking Oaks lead-ups over the past two weeks
- With a strong Place percentage of 63.16% looks better for a Place bet than a winning chance
- Needs to really improve on her fifth in the Vinery and 11th before that in the Coolmore
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