Looking at the 2013 Australian Oaks betting markets for this Saturday’s Doncaster Mile Day showdown at Royal Randwick it is New Zealand Derby winner Habibi who is being spruiked as the filly to beat, but is she the best tip for the classic?
Set to jump at 3:35pm (AEST) as Randwick Race 7 the $550,000 Group 1 Patinack Farm Australian Oaks (2400m) this year features a final field of 11 top fillies, the favourite of which is the Donna Logan-trained daughter of Ekraar Habibi.
Winner of the NZ Derby over the mile and a half two back Habibi trialled for the Oaks in fine form on Golden Slipper Day when third in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill, the step back up to the 2400m this weekend making her the one to beat.
As such Habibi leads the Australian Oaks betting markets at a quote of $3.
There are a number of other promising three-year-olds hot on her heels however including the Chris Waller-trained Royal Descent ($5).
After a close second at Kembla Grange behind fellow Oaks hope Cameo ($31) the Redoute’s Choice filly lumped a hefty 59kg to a bit two and a half length win in the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) at Randwick last Saturday and if she handles the rise in class should be very competitive.
The other single-figure fancies in the markets are then Clarry Conners’ Crown Oaks champ Dear Demi ($5.50), Vinery runner-up Longport ($6) who has seen some early support come in and another New Zealand raider More Than Sacred ($9.50) who comes off a win in the NZ Oaks.
But are these favourites really the ones to back on the weekend? And if so which order should you lock them into your exotics?
Read on for our exclusive Australian Oaks tips to help you sort the contenders from the pretenders in this classic staying test.
#2 Habibi ($3)
- New Zealand Derby winner over the boys at this distance two back
- One of only two in this to have seen the 2400m before
- Kiwi form for the 3YO fillies often stacks up this time of year
- Her third in the Vinery Stud Stakes was eye-catching
- Will improve getting back up to the 2400m and having had her maiden run down under
- Good gate three draw and regular rider Vinnie Colgan there for the ride
- Vinery is the premier form guide for the Oaks in recent years
- Has the consistency including the best Win Rate of the field (75%) and Place Percentage (100%) having won six of her seven starts
Deserving top fancy and favourites have a descent recent record in the ATC Oaks with three of the past 10 saluting
#4 Royal Descent ($5)
- Nice Waller-trained filly has been improving with every run and expect her to step up again when she sees her first Group 1 field
Very close second in the Group 3 Keith Nolan Classic over the Kembla Grange mile before her big win at this track last weekend
- Put an easy 2.5 lengths on her closest rival to win the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) carrying 59kg (runner-up at 54kg) and the 56kg with set weights on Saturday is going to bring her relief
- The Adrian Knox Stakes – Australian Oaks double had been achieved by two other fillies in the past decade with Republic Lass (2002) and Wild Iris (2004)
- Needs to handle the class rise and the distance but believe she is progressive enough to do that and give the favourite a run for their money
- Gate nine a non-issue over the distance
- One of just three previous Randwick winners
- Had the second best Win (50%) and Place (83.33%) rates of the field making her the obvious Each Way Chance
#5 More Than Sacred ($9.50)
- Adds nice value to the Trifecta
- Another New Zealand raider with Group 1 winning form back home over the mile and a half having won the NZ Oaks
- If the Kiwi form stacks up she should be competitive
- Good gate two draw gives jockey options
Roughie We Like
#7 Summerbliss ($13)
- Visiting Victorian with chance to improve on their seventh in the Vinery Stud Stakes where Slow (7) track didn’t work in their favour
- Before that was a good third at Moonee Valley over the mile
- Have form around the distance too having run third to Dear Demi, a $5.50 chance for Saturday, in the Crown Oaks over 2500m during the spring at Flemington
Whether you’re backing or sacking our Australian Oaks selections this Saturday make sure you lock in the right price online at bookmaker.com.au where you will also be rewarded with a bonus bet valued up to $500 as a new depositing customer when you quote the code BONUSBET!
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change