Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
Today, Saturday April 13, will go down in history as the day Black Caviar notched her 25th turf triumph and surpassed the record with her 15th Group 1 victory as she threatens to steal the show for 2013 Australian Derby Day at Royal Randwick.
And while Peter Moody’s pin-up girl in the last, Race 9 – the $1 million Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m), is the one the sell-out crowd are there to see there’s still plenty of other top class autumn racing action on the card.
No one is going to get rich today backing Black Caviar even as she prepares to start at her most generous odds in nearly two years, $1.12 at bookmaker.com.au.
So to help give your bank balance a boost below we have our exclusive 2013 Australian Derby Day Best Bets – who to back and who to sack!
In The Big One – Race 7 – Australian Derby
#1 It’s A Dundeel ($1.25)
It really does look like Murray Baker’s in-form New Zealand raider winning today’s $1.5 million Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) this afternoon completing the autumn 3YO triple crown. They face only nine rivals, just one other any kind of serious threat with Tulloch Stakes winner Philippi, but there’s more than just a few reasons why It’s A Dundeel is at $1.25. They won the Randwick Guineas two back before a blistering seven length romp in the Rosehill edition and now it’s the Derby over 2400m, a distance that has a slight question mark but against this field they should really be fine.
Best Place Bet – Race 5 – Inglis Sires Produce Stakes
#8 Guelph ($10)
While all the pre-race hype on the $500,000 Group 1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) is on Waterhouse’s Golden Slipper winner Overreach ($1.55) there’s still a lot to like about our pick for second place – Guelph. Peter Snowden’s youngster is another Exceed And Excel filly like the Slipper winner and looks ready for a huge run as they step up to the 1400m. They put in an ace run in the Slipper coming from a poor position to finish a slashing fourth and with more ground would likely have shortened that gap.
Better Than Bank Interest – Race 9 – TJ Smith Stakes
#9 Black Caviar ($1.12)
It really is a case of take your pick when it comes to odds-on favourites this Derby Day, three at prohibitive odds of under $2 in the three Group 1’s. But of course when it comes to a sure thing you really can’t look past the queen Black Caviar as she lines up in the $1 million Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) to finish off the racing action today. There’s too many superlatives to describe this champion but all you need to know is that despite the small group of haters this is a horse everyone loves to love for a reason – a genuine star that if you don’t back you will regret.
Best Roughie Of The Day – Race 8 – Sapphire Stakes
#1 Mrs Onassis ($17)
With so many favourites looking set to salute for the punters today Mrs Onassis will come as a nice relief for those after a little more value when she lines-up over-the-odds in the $175,000 Group 2 Sapphire Stakes (1200m) late on the card. She has the top weight (58.5kg) and lost a few fans when eighth to Snitzerland in the Challenge Stakes last time out but forgive both here. She was the first-up winner of the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) beating a smart field of sprinters from an awkward gate showing her class. Then she dropped back in distance and ran into a record breaker in Snitzerland. She’ll be better getting up to the 1200m and if she handles the weight she wins.
Lay Of The Day – Race 6 – Doncaster Prelude
#13 Mahisara ($5.50)
This Scone galloper is favourite in a big field and an open market and just think there’s a few others more likely to get this one. Mahisara is second-up after a fifth in a Group 3 at Newcastle on May 20 over 1400m and while the step up in distance for the $125,000 Group 3 Doncaster Prelude (1600m) will suit today, don’t think they’re ready to peak just yet. Second-up record is poor and usually come on third or fourth which will be in the Group 1 which is the Grand Final. Look instead to the likes of #4 Havana Rey ($6) and #12 Moriarty ($13) for value.
Think you’ve uncovered a few nice value Australian Derby Day bets that you want to lock in at the best prices in the country?
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
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