The ace Sydney Autumn Carnival juvenile racing action continues this Saturday on Australian Derby Day with the ATC Inglis Sires Produce Stakes 2013 at Royal Randwick– betting tips from the Races.com.au team for which can be found below.
Set to run at 2:30pm (AEST) as Randwick Race 5 the $500,000 Group 1 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) field features 12 up-and-comers including the odds-on favourite Overreach.
Winner of the classic Golden Slipper last Saturday Gai Waterhouse’s Exceed And Excel filly is the class two-year-old of season and will take some beating again here at $1.60 in the Sires Produce Stakes odds.
For many the odds-on price for a favourite filly in this race which sides with neither the punters’ picks nor the females however is too short especially with Overreach going over the distance for the first time.
So will she shake any hoodoos and get the job done becoming the 14th horse in history to win the Golden Slipper – Sires Produce Stakes double, the past three to do so all prepared by Waterhouse including Pierro 12 months ago?
Or can one of the double-figure chances in the race score an upset here such as Golden Slipper fourth placed Guelph ($11) or one of Waterhouse’s two other runners in Shahad ($26) and Florid Affair ($10)?
#7 Overreach ($1.60)
- Yes she’s short, very short, and yes there are queries but we’re happy to stick with her
- Should get a gun run from barrier six with gives her options
- Comes off a Golden Slipper win so is the benchmark
- Similar field
- Right jockey (Tommy Berry)
- Waterhouse is the key with seven winners of this race since 2000 all having come off a top three finish in the Slipper
- After her fourth straight being undefeated this time in
- Smart Win Rate of 75%
- Has the blistering turn of foot and acceleration to leave them behind
- Extra distance here has some drawing a question mark but won the Slipper on a Slow track at Rosehill over 1200m making the 1400m on firmer ground at Randwick no real stretch
- Set weights also in her favour
- For value take her at the Pick Your Own Odds at bookmaker and bet on the winning margin too
#8 Guelph ($11)
- Best of the rest from the Slipper backing up here having finished fourth last Saturday
- It was a good fourth too winding through the field and leaving many in her wake
- Drawn wide in gate 13 but time to overcome here
- 1400m to suit
- Slipper was first run in 42 days and will be fitter for the run
- Competitive at Randwick on debut when second in the Gimcrack Stakes last October
- Right breeding as mother Camirilla won the Sires back in 2007
#11 Shahad ($26)
- Tipping an all filly-trifecta with this progressive daughter of Fastnet Rock to finish off the minor placings
- The longest-priced of Waterhouse’s three with Florid Affair ($10) better fancied but think this is where the value is at
- Third in the Gimcrack at this track on debut during the spring before a five month spell
- Their first-up was ninth to stablemate Sweet Idea in the Silver Slipper but that was on a Heavy (9) which didn’t suit
- Firmer track when just nudged out by Scandiva, also a $26 chance for Saturday, in the Group 2 Magic Night Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill
- Had barrier 11 of 13 then and still nearly got the bikkies so having the same barrier here won’t be an issue
- Should relish the step up to 1400m too and will be coming home strong
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