She’s the most successful trainer in the race’s history and prepares this year’s odds-on favourite Overreach but will Gai Waterhouse score an upset 2013 ATC Sires Produce Stakes result with her other filly Florid Affair?
Golden Slipper winner Overreach is tipped as the two-year-old to beat again this weekend paying $1.60 in the markets for the $500,000 Group 1 Inglis Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) which is the first of three elite levels on Randwick’s Australian Derby Day program on Saturday.
Draw in barrier six with Tommy Berry in the saddle again ahead of his Hong Kong stint Overreach is odds-on for a reason as the rank horse here.
Still the favourites’ record in the Sires Produce is less than impressive with just nine wins since 1983 which opens things up somewhat.
Occupying the second line of ATC Sires Produce Stakes betting at a double-figure quote of $10 is then another promising young filly from Waterhouse’s Tulloch Lodge stables in Florid Affair.
Coming up trumps with gate three and Hall of Famer Jim Cassidy to ride, the daughter of Sebring has had two runs to date breaking her maiden status on April 3 at Warwick Farm winning a fillies’ maiden over 1250m.
She has handled everything from a Heavy track for a trial early last month at Rosehill to a Good (3) when third on debut behind subsequent Group 2 Magic Night Stakes winner Scandiva, a $26 chance for the Sires Produce, to a Slow track for her breakthrough win.
Florid Affair had the same barrier (3) draw last start and could also get the same track conditions this weekend as she looks to get the better of her star stablemate.
But is she really any sort of chance of taking home first prize? Or are punters better off sticking to a place bet with Florid Affair in Randwick Race 5 on Derby Day?
#13 Florid Affair – Horse Form
- Barrier: 3
- Jockey: Jim Cassidy
- Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
- Owners: Ms K Page, Mrs S M Burns, Mrs R J Henderson, Mrs S A Olive, Mrs D Tickle, Miss K Waterhouse, Miss H Waterhouse
- Age: 2YO
- Gender: Fillies
- Breeding: by Sebring from Show Exhibit
- Career: 2-1-0-3
- Win: 50%
- Place: 100%
- Last 6: 31
- Prize Money: $33,350
- Track: 0-0-0-0
- Distance: 0-0-0-0
- Current 2013 ATC Sires Produce Stakes Odds: $10
Yes – Florid Affair is a Chance to Score an Upset ATC Sires Produce Stakes Win
- Will get a gun run from barrier three
- Top jockey in Jim Cassidy rides
- Favourites record isn’t great opening up an upset with only nine favourites since 1983 winning the race
- Is prepared by the race’s most successful trainer Gai Waterhouse who has won seven times since 2000 including 12 months ago with Pierro
- One of Waterhouse’s more recent ATC Sires Produce Stakes winner Sebring (2008) is Florid Affair’s sire so she’s got the right breeding
- Comes off a maiden win over 1250m on a Slow track at the start of the month where they put 4.5 lengths on Artistic Lass
- Should handle the 1400m then and if it’s wet in Sydney they should handle that too
No – Florid Affair Won’t Beat Overreach in the ATC Sires Produce Stakes
- Isn’t as good as her stablemate #7 Overreach ($1.60) who is the one to beat here
- Yet to race at Group level whereas Overreach has won three stakes races including the Group 1 Golden Slipper last start
- Better for a Place Bet with a 100% place rate
- Barrier three has produced only one previous winner
- Hasn’t raced at the track or distance before
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