One of the key support races on Australian Derby Day at Randwick this Saturday will be the 2013 ATC Sires Produce Stakes, the Races.com.au team’s insider form guide and betting analysis for which is detailed below.
Running as Race 5 at 2:30pm (AEST) the $500,000 Group 1 Inglis ATC Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) is the scene for Gai Waterhouse’s Golden Slipper winner Overreach’s next race as the young filly looks to become the fourth horse for her trainer since 2000 to score the Slipper – Sires double.
Having come through the Golden Slipper in top form with little query over her ability to step up to 1400m, Overreach is the $1.60 favourite in the current ATC Sires Produce Stakes odds.
She’s the only one under $10 in the markets and looks very hard to beat at set weights from barrier six with Tommy Berry aboard being undefeated this time in.
Waterhouse also prepares the second favourite for Saturday as she shoots for successive wins in the two-year-olds’ classic following the success of Pierro last autumn with Sebring filly Florid Affair, fresh off a big 4.5 length win over 1250m at Warwick Farm, paying $10.
Of the others out trying for an upset the Peter Snowden-trained Guelph ($11) and Shaun Dwyer’s Bendigo-based filly Villa Verde ($11) who were fourth and seventh respectively behind Overreach in the Slipper are the next best fancied.
With the odds-on favourite dominating the markets and looking a class above, is there any value to be found in the Sires this Saturday?
Having gone over the field and form guide below are the must know betting facts and historical stats on the ATC Sires Produce Stakes to help you pick the winning trifecta!
2013 ATC Sires Produce Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s winner was the Gai Waterhouse-trained Pierro who backed up from a Golden Sipper win, jumped from barrier two and was ridden by Nash Rawiller
- Waterhouse will vie for back-to-back Sires wins this year with last Saturday’s Golden Slipper winner #7 Overreach ($1.60) as well as #11 Shahad ($26) and #13 Florid Affair ($10)
- The last Golden Slipper winning filly to back-up and win the Sires however was Merelene (1996)
- Since 2000 Waterhouse has trained three winners of the Golden Slipper – Sires Produce double with Pierro (2012), Sebring (2008) and Dance Hero (2004)
- The fourth Slipper winner Waterhouse backed-up in the Sires failed to win and that was a filly
- Waterhouse has had a total of seven ATC Sires Produce Stakes winners since 2000, all of which came off a top three Slipper finish, making her the race’s most successful trainer
- Six of the past 10 ATC Sires Produce Stakes winners came via the Golden Slipper
- Last year’s winning jockey Nash Rawiller meanwhile will look for an upset with #3 Windjammer ($34)
- Pierro’s winning gate from 12 months ago (barrier two) will belong on Saturday to #1 Charlie Boy ($26) who ran eighth in the Golden Slipper
- The most successful barrier has been one producing six wins; this year barrier one belongs to #12 Thump ($34)
- Along with #1 Overreach there are four other last start winners in the race with #2 Champollion (Group 3, The Schweppervescence, 1400m, Rosehill, 06/04/2013), #5 So Man Up (2YO MDN, 1000m, Cranbourne, 28/03/2013), #10 Scandiva (Group 2 Magic Night Stakes, 1200m, Rosehill, 30/03/2013) and #13 Florid Affair (2YO MDN, 1250m, Warwick Farm, 03/04/2013)
- Having had just the one run for one win #5 So Man Up ($16) boasts the best Win Rate of the field with 100% followed by #7 Overreach (75%)
- As for the best Place Percentages the above two along with #13 Florid Affair are all at 100%
- The only two horses to have run top three at the track before are #8 Guelph (1-0-1-0) and #11 Shahad (1-0-0-1)
- #2 Champollion ($41) is the only one with a top three finish over the distance (2-1-0-0) having won the Group 3 The Schweppervescence over the 1400m at Rosehill last Saturday on Slipper Day
- Favourites only have a fair record in the race with three wins in the past decade and nine victories since 1983
- Five of the past 10 Sires favourites meanwhile have failed to run a place
- Fillies have won 12 times since 1983, six of those being between 1983 and 1993
Stay tuned for our exclusive ATC Sires Produce Stakes tips to be published shortly.
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2013 ATC Inglis Sires Produce Stakes Field & Form Guide
Royal Randwick Race 5 – 2:30pm (AEST) – 13/04/2013
|1.||CHARLIE BOY||G A Ryan||Glyn Schofield||2||56.5||2yoC||7||$37,313||4: 1 0 1||25.00%||50.00%||1×348|
|2.||CHAMPOLLION||Peter Snowden||Not Notified||8||56.5||2yoC||7||$21,288||4: 1 0 1||25.00%||50.00%||8×301|
|3.||WINDJAMMER||Bjorn Baker||Not Notified||5||56.5||2yoC||7||$20,563||4: 0 1 0||0.00%||25.00%||2×449|
|4.||HAVANA||Paul Messara||Craig Williams||4||56.5||2yoC||21||$15,500||2: 0 0 1||0.00%||50.00%||73|
|5.||SO MAN UP||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||10||56.5||2yoC||16||$10,500||1: 1 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||1|
|6.||DRAGO||A J Cummings||Hugh Bowman||12||56.5||2yoC||14||$1,750||1: 0 0 0||0.00%||0.00%||6|
|7.||OVERREACH||Ms G Waterhouse||Tommy Berry||6||54.5||2yoF||7||$573,200||4: 3 1 0||75.00%||100.00%||2×111|
|8.||GUELPH||Peter Snowden||Not Notified||13||54.5||2yoF||7||$73,900||5: 2 1 0||40.00%||60.00%||2×1194|
|9.||VILLA VERDE||S A Dwyer||Michael Rodd||9||54.5||2yoF||7||$67,500||4: 2 1 0||50.00%||75.00%||11×27|
|10.||SCANDIVA||A J Cummings||Peter Robl||7||54.5||2yoF||14||$35,145||4: 2 0 0||50.00%||50.00%||5×611|
|11.||SHAHAD||Ms G Waterhouse||James Mc Donald||11||54.5||2yoF||14||$15,000||3: 0 1 1||0.00%||66.67%||3×92|
|12.||THUMP||John Thompson||Craig Newitt||1||54.5||2yoF||14||$8,110||5: 0 1 1||0.00%||40.00%||3×7726|
|13.||FLORID AFFAIR||Ms G Waterhouse||Jimmy Cassidy||3||54.5||2yoF||10||$16,675||2: 1 0 1||50.00%||100.00%||31|
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au