2013 TJ Smith Stakes Form Guide & Betting Analysis

While the once-in-a-generation turf champion Black Caviar looks all but unbeatable in the TJ Smith Stakes 2013 at Royal Randwick this Saturday it is always worth taking a deeper look into the field, form guide and betting history of a big Group 1 to uncover where any value may be at.

Black Caviar

1200m specialist Black Caviar vies for her 18th win over the distance in Saturday's TJ Smith Stakes 2013. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Running as the last on the Australian Derby Day card at 5:10pm (AEST) this Saturday the $1 million Group 1 Darley T.J. Smith Stakes (1200m) will be host to Peter Moody’s equine great Black Caviar’s 25th appearance, the mighty mare looking to continue her flawless career record with yet another win.

She’s the dominant $1.10 favourite to remain unbeaten come close of day in the TJ Smith Stakes odds but it is still a horse race and she still has to beat the 10 class rivals that have been accepted to take her on this weekend.

Racing in Sydney for the first time since her impressive win over long-time foe Hay List in the TJ Smith Stakes two years ago, six-year-old Black Caviar arrived safely in New South Wales on Thursday morning and looks on track for the TJ Smith Stakes with the course continuing to firm after sitting as a Heavy (8) on Tuesday.

So will Black Caviar flash home again and destroy another field? Or will one of Australian racings’ biggest ever upsets play out on Derby Day with the likes of The Galaxy champ Bel Sprinter ($9), John McNair’s always-honest Hay List ($26) and even the resuming Epaulette ($61) all out for their shot at the queen?

To find out whether Black Caviar statistically is the only horse to back this TJ Smith Stakes, and to uncover which are the best place bets to make, below we have the must know form facts and betting stats on the event.

2013 TJ Smith Stakes Form Facts & Betting Stats

  • Last year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was the David Payne-trained Master of Design who came off a Sebring Stakes third, jumped from barrier four (of 6) and was ridden by Craig Williams
  • While the defending champ is not in the mix last year’s runner-up #3 Rain Affair is ($26)
  • Last year’s winning barrier (4) meanwhile belongs this year to #4 Decision Time ($71)
  • The previous year’s TJ Smith Stakes winner was Black Caviar (2011) who came off three autumn wins in the Lighting Stakes – Newmarket Handicap – William Reid Stakes, jumped from barrier five (of 11) and was ridden by Luke Nolen
  • This year #9 Black Caviar ($1.10) is back to defend her title from two years ago and her unblemished record that stands at 24 wins from 24 starts to date
  • She will be third-up this time having won two of the three same races as her lead-up last year (the Lightning Stakes and William Reid Stakes)
  • The William Reid Stakes has produced four of the past 10 TJ Smith Stakes winners
  • Luke Nolen retains the ride and this year she will jump from barrier one (of 11)
  • The gate the Black Flash won from 24 months ago (barrier five) belongs on Saturday to #5 Atomic Force ($201) which is also the gate to produce the most TJ Smith Stakes winners with five
  • #2 Bel Sprinter (Group 1 The Galaxy, 1100m, Rosehill, 30/03/2013) is the only other last start winner in the race
  • Undefeated to date #9 Black Caviar obviously boasts a flawless 100% Win and Place Rate
  • The next most consistent winning strike rates then belong to #1 Hay List (62.50%) and #3 Rain Affair (61.11%)
  • As for the Place Rates the next best in the field are #11 Epaulette (87.50%), #1 Hay List (85.50%), #3 Rain Affair (77.78%), #4 Decision Time (76.47%) and #10 Sea Siren (75%)
  • Along with #9 Black Caviar (1-1-0-0) other horses with winning form at Randwick are #6 Title (4-3-0-0), #1 Hay List (3-1-2-0), #3 Rain Affair (4-1-2-0), #4 Decision Time (2-1-0-1), #5 Atomic Force (7-2-1-1) and #8 Onthelookout (3-1-0-2)
  • Over the distance the horses with the best form are #9 Black Caviar (17-17-0-0), #1 Hay List (11-7-3-0), #3 Rain Affair (6-3-1-0), #4 Decision Time (8-3-2-0), #6 Title (13-5-4-2), #7 Howmuchdoyouloveme (5-2-1-0), #10 Sea Siren (8-5-1-1) and #11 Epaulette (5-2-1-1)
  • Favourites have a poor recent record in the race with only two winning in the past 10 years; four of the past 10 favourites failing to run a place
  • Since 1983 just four TJ Smith Stakes favourites have saluted for the punters
  • Six-year-olds have the best record in the past 10 years with three wins and this year there are two in this age group with #9 Black Caviar and #6 Title who are at opposite ends of the betting markets

Whether you’re backing or sacking the mighty mare in the TJ Smith Stakes 2013 make sure you get the right price by betting online at bookmaker.com.au – the only Australian-owned and operated sportsbook offering punters the chance to Pick Your Own Odds!

2013 TJ Smith Stakes Field & Form Guide

Royal Randwick Race 9 – 5:10pm (AEST) – 13/04/2013

# Horse Trainer Jockey Br. Wgt. AS Days API Career W% P% Last 6
1. HAY LIST J C Mcnair Glyn Schofield 9 58.5 7yoG 28 $106,545 24: 15 6 0 62.50% 87.50% x212x4
2. BEL SPRINTER Jason Warren Hugh Bowman 2 58.5 5yoG 14 $45,988 14: 7 1 0 50.00% 57.14% 1579×1
3. RAIN AFFAIR Joseph Pride Corey Brown 5 58.5 5yoG 21 $62,036 18: 11 3 0 61.11% 77.78% 2x48x4
4. DECISION TIME C E Conners James Mc Donald 4 58.5 5yoG 14 $82,806 17: 8 3 2 47.06% 76.47% 150×23
5. ATOMIC FORCE D P Smith Joshua Parr 6 58.5 7yoG 14 $21,657 42: 11 7 6 26.19% 57.14% 466×07
6. TITLE Joseph Pride Michael Rodd 3 58.5 6yoG 14 $20,118 29: 9 6 2 31.03% 58.62% 423×06
7. HOWMUCHDO-YOULOVEME C Karakatsanis Brenton Avdulla 7 58.5 4yoG 14 $36,515 10: 5 1 1 50.00% 70.00% 185×30
8. ONTHELOOKOUT Ms B Joseph and P A Jones Carl Spry 11 58.5 7yoG 23 $9,586 42: 6 11 12 14.29% 69.05% x6x383
9. BLACK CAVIAR P G Moody Luke Nolen 1 56.5 6yoM 22 $306,206 24: 24 0 0 100.00% 100.00% 111×11
10. SEA SIREN J A O’shea Jimmy Cassidy 10 56.5 4yoM 14 $127,653 12: 6 2 1 50.00% 75.00% x129x8
11. EPAULETTE Peter Snowden Kerrin Mc Evoy 8 56.5 3yoC 182 $135,269 8: 4 1 2 50.00% 87.50% x3113x

*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change

*Form Guide Credit – Ladbrokes.com.au