Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn is looking...
This Saturday one of the feature Melbourne Festival of Racing showdowns will light up Flemington Racecourse with the Newmarket Handicap 2013to take centre stage, the Races.com.au team’s exclusive form guide and betting analysis for which is detailed below.
Due to jump as Flemington Race 6 at 3:15pm (AEST) the $1 million Group 1 sprint down the 1200m has drawn a talented final field of 14 gallopers, half of which have already entered the Group 1 winners stall.
It is an intriguing line-up too full of proven performers and up-and-coming talent from both local stables and as far west as Perth.
Current Newmarket Handicap betting markets are firmly led by Peter Moody’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winning gelding Moment Of Change, the four-year-old backing up after a nice second to Black Caviar in the Lightning Stakes.
Moment Of Change pays $2.70 to become a dual Group 1 champion on Saturday and is followed in the Newmarket Handicap odds by undefeated WA speedster Barakey ($5.25) making their interstate debut.
Also high up the markets and considered the best of the rest are then two time Group 1 winning Perth galloper Luckygray who will jump from the extreme outside gate with the highest weight (58.5kg), and progressive young Brisbane three-year-old Better Than Ready both paying $6.50.
So will this year’s Newmarket Handicap winner come from this top quartet? Or can a double figure chance score a boilover such as triple Group 1 winning mare Ortensia at a generous $15 and drifting?
Our team of experts have done the hard work for you studying the Newmarket Handicap field, form guide and betting history to come up with the must know facts below to help you back a winner at bookmaker.com.au on the weekend.
2013 Newmarket Handicap Form Facts & Betting Stats
- Last year’s Newmarket Handicap winner was 58.5kg topweight Hay List who jumped from barrier 14 (of 22) with Glyn Schofield in the saddle on the back of a second in the Lightning Stakes
- Hay List was also the second favourite and top-weight in as many years to salute following Black Caviar (58kg) in 2011
- This year the 58.5kg topweight is #1 Luckygray ($6.50) who, like Hay List from 12 months ago, has also drawn barrier 14
- #2 Moment Of Change ($2.70) meanwhile will look to continue the recent winning form of the favourites when they jump top fancy out to become the seventh punters’ pick to win in the past decade
- #2 Moment Of Change also comes via a second in the Lightning Stakes as Hay List did last autumn
- The Lightning Stakes has produced seven of the past eight Newmarket Handicap winners, all of those seven having placed either first or second in that lead-up run down the Flemington track
- The favourite’s barrier 7 draw is also historically in their favour as trainer Peter Moody vies for his third Newmarket Handicap success in four years; Moment Of Change drawn in the same gate as Moody’s recent winners Wanted (2010) and Black Caviar (2011)
- Their 56.5kg topweight is also advantageous with the only Newmarket winner to carry lighter than 56kg since Takeover Target (57kg in 2006) was Wanted (51.5kg in 2010)
- Three horses meanwhile will look to become the first first-up winner of the race since Polycrates in 1917 with #1 Luckygray, #5 Barakey and #10 Fontelina ($16) all resuming in the Newmarket
- #13 Better Than Ready ($6.50) and #14 Shamexpress ($21) are the sole three-year-olds in the mix this year out to become the 10th of their age to win the race in the past 30 years joining the likes of Weekend Hussler (2008), Schillaci (1992) and Placid Ark (1987)
- Being undefeated in their 10 career starts to date #5 Barakey ($5.25) obviously boasts the highest Win and Place rates of the field with 100%
- Aside from Barakey the next best Win rates then belong to #1 Luckygray (66.67%) and #13 Better Than Ready (62.50%)
- The next best Place percentages have then been achieved by #2 Moment Of Change (90%), #13 Better Than Ready (87.50%) and #1 Luckygray (77.78%)
- There are three last start winners in this year’s Newmarket Handicap field with the resuming #1 Luckygray (Group 1, Kingston Town Classic, 1800m, Ascot, 08/12/2012) and #5 Barakey (Group 1, Winterbottom Stakes, 1200m, Ascot, 24/11/2012) along with #13 Better Than Ready (Listed, Falvelon Handicap, 1200m, Eagle Farm, 23/02/2013)
- Horses with previous winning form at Flemington are #10 Fontelina (3-1-0-0), #7 Lone Rock (5-1-0-0), #3 Ortensia (4-1-1-1), #14 Shamexpress (4-1-0-1), #12 Undeniably (5-1-0-0) and #4 Woorim (5-1-0-1)
- Over the distance horses with the best record are then #1 Luckygray (5-5-0-0), #5 Barakey (2-2-0-0), #12 Undeniably (8-3-1-0), #13 Better Than Ready (4-2-0-1), #10 Fontelina (3-2-1-0), #2 Moment Of Change (3-2-0-1), #8 Aeronautical (8-2-2-0) and #14 Shamexpress (4-1-1-2)
- Meanwhile there are four previous winners over the track and distance with #14 Shamexpress (4-1-1-2), #10 Fontelina (2-1-0-0), #7 Lone Rock (4-1-0-0) and #12 Undeniably (2-1-0-0)
Stay tuned to Races.com.au for our inside Newmarket Handicap tips to be published later in the week.
Think you’ve already got the winner picked out based on the above facts and stats? Head along to bookmaker.com.au and get in on the action at the guaranteed best prices also enjoying a $400 bonus welcome bet upon sign-up if you are a new depositing player that quotes the code BONUSBET!
2013 Newmarket Handicap Field & Form Guide
Flemington Race 6 – 3:15pm (AEST) – 09/03/2013
|1.||LUCKYGRAY||G P Poletti||Shaun O’Donnell||14||58||5yoG||91||$99,032||18: 12 2 0||66.67%||77.78%||40121x|
|2.||MOMENT OF CHANGE||P G Moody||Luke Nolen||7||56.5||4yoG||21||$50,989||10: 5 1 3||50.00%||90.00%||x131x2|
|3.||ORTENSIA||Paul Messara||Dwayne Dunn||9||56.5||7yoM||14||$68,892||36: 13 3 4||36.11%||55.56%||4110×0|
|4.||WOORIM||R L Heathcote||Damian Browne||4||56.5||7yoG||14||$24,515||43: 11 6 3||25.58%||46.51%||8070×0|
|5.||BARAKEY||J P Taylor||Jason Brown||13||56||5yoG||105||$62,427||11: 11 0 0||100.00%||100.00%||1x111x|
|6.||SPIRIT OF BOOM||T J Gollan||Brett Prebble||6||55||5yoH||14||$27,756||34: 6 7 5||17.65%||52.94%||3273×3|
|7.||LONE ROCK||R W Smerdon||Ben Melham||5||53.5||5yoM||14||$27,144||22: 4 2 3||18.18%||40.91%||x700x8|
|8.||AERONAUTICAL||Lionel Cohen||Not Notified||1||52.5||4yoG||21||$14,138||17: 3 2 1||17.65%||35.29%||2417×3|
|9.||BIG BUDDIE||A G Sawden||Anthony Darmanin||2||52.5||4yoG||8||$5,700||20: 3 2 1||15.00%||30.00%||427935|
|10.||FONTELINA||A J Cummings||Glen Boss||10||52.5||4yoG||119||$29,400||12: 4 2 0||33.33%||50.00%||06x10x|
|11.||SATIN SHOES||C E Conners||Tommy Berry||12||52.5||4yoM||21||$31,874||23: 5 5 2||21.74%||52.17%||2280×4|
|12.||UNDENIABLY||M A Kavanagh||Tim Clark||3||52.5||6yoG||14||$15,236||18: 4 4 1||22.22%||50.00%||8×2164|
|13.||BETTER THAN READY||K M Schweida||Craig Williams||8||50.5||3yoC||14||$29,875||8: 5 1 1||62.50%||87.50%||311×21|
|14.||SHAMEXPRESS||D T O’brien||Craig Newitt||11||50.5||3yoC||21||$19,497||9: 2 1 2||22.22%||55.56%||395316|
*All odds quoted are Fixed Win from bookmaker.com.au and subject to change
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